NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We missed a play on CLE -3 last night and smashed the night prior. After the CLE lost last night I made a key addition to the NBA betting tab to show the teams offensive vs. defensive production for Home vs. Road. Last night was a perfect example as CLE scores 13 less points per 100 possessions on the road and MIN allows 5 less points playing at home per 100. Would have been good to know prior to my pick!
TOP 4 PLAYS FOR THE SLATE:
LAKERS / HAWKS UNDER 219
If you have followed any of my past picks you know Lakers unders are money. I don’t like the model I use for on my NBA Betting Tab for the Lakers because they are the thorn in the side so I have to manually calculate their games. Lakers are hitting the under 71% of the time and Hawks are hitting the under 73.7% of the time. This game should pace down to around 99-102 possessions and these teams project out to about a 2.14 efficiency putting us around 211-218. However, Lakers games usually pace “way down” so I think this is a safe option. Our range of outcomes is 210.9-223 so majority of the time we have it going under the total of 219. Lakers shooting percentages have been down as they are 28th in eFG% over the last 3 and 24th in 3P% so that helps. The under is a solid 29-11 combined for these teams.
KINGS / PELICANS OVER 233
Our range of outcomes is 227.8-240 putting a solid lean on the over. These two teams are a combined 24-13 for the over and both hitting greater than 63% of the time. We have this around 102 -104 possessions and a 2.26 efficiency putting us at 230 for a low end and with Vegas sitting at 233 I’m taking the over here. Both teams are shooting hot right now with Pelicans taking the 4th most FG attempts per game over the last 3 and have the 7th highest eFG% in that same span. They are also 2nd in 3P attempts and 14th in 3P%. On the other side SAC is 2nd in eFG% and 6th in 3P% over the last 3. Last 3 combined PPG is 239 and PPG allowed is 231 so this should get there!
ROCKETS / THUNDER OVER 223.5
Last time we had a Rockets over it sailed over by 15+ points and it was an easy win so we are going right back to the well. We have a range of outcomes for this game at 224-228 and with Vegas sitting at 223.5 we lean heavily on the over here. Projected possessions are 105.5-106 as this is a tight window as both teams are playing at a top 6 pace over the last 9 games and 5th and 9th on the season. Fast + Fast = Faster. These teams should play around a 2.14 efficiency so if you take that by 105.5 that gives us 225.7 points and I think that is a safe number. Anything can happen in the NBA but hit that over!
DENVER (1ST HALF -4.5)
Nikola Jokic is going to demolish Detroit down low. Our model has Denver favored by 16 but and the Vegas spread opened at -9.5 and now -8. I don’t mind the -8 play but I’m going to bet the first half -4.5 and then if they are down hammer the second half play. With large spread games around double digits I prefer to hit the 1H and try to save myself from a back door dog cover. DET is 29th in FG attempts, 26th in eFG% and 27th in 3P% over the last 3 games and Denver is just the opposite ranking 3rd in eFG% and 1st in 3P%. We have this game modeled at 117-100 Denver rolling!
TIER 2 PLAYS – NOT MY FAVORITES BUT STILL BETTING THEM!
BUCKS / TRAIL BLAZERS OVER 235.5
This game slides into T2 due to the high total. Our range is 229-240 putting it right in the middle of that 50/50 mark. However, the projected combined efficiencies for this game is sitting at 2.29 and that is HUGE! That means for 100 possessions that is 229 points. With POR playing at the 22nd pace over the last 3 and MIL playing at the 6th fastest pace this is a pace up game for POR. We are projecting this game between 101.8-103.5 possessions putting us in that mid 230’s number. I bet this when it opened at 234 and again at 234.5 and now it’s 236 in some spots so had to slide it down into T2 level.
OTHER GAMES – THESE ARE GAMES I HAVE A LEAN TO A SIDE BUT NOT LOVING THE PLAY AS A SMASH SPOT:
CHA (+6.5) OVER MIAMI – Miami has been a horrible spread team as they are 6-12 ATS hitting only 33% of the time. CHA is 5th in 3P% over the last 3 games and MIA ranks 28th, 24th and 28th in FG: Attempts, eFG% and 3P%. I don’t know if Butler can do it all himself, take the points. I also LEAN UNDER 218 here with our range 206-221 the majority of outcomes is the under and these teams play at the 24th and 27th pace. Possessions range is 97-101 x 2.15 putting it with a more likely under here. Under is also 21-17 combined for these teams.
MEMPHIS (+3.5) OVER SPURS – I can’t get the Spurs right! They are just a team that I always miss on so definitely wasn’t going to put this into the “top plays” category. Memphis has been fire winning 6 straight games and sit at 5-1 on the road. MEM scores 7 more points per 100 possessions on the road and allows 3 points less. We have MEM winning a tight game 113-110 so grab the +3.5!
DALLAS / PHO UNDER 217.5 – This line opened at 218.5 and is down to 216.5 in some spots so it’s being heavily bet on the under. I hate betting unders because who has fun watching all defense, slow play and missed shots? Not me! But if my model projects the possessions and efficiencies and the range is a majority under then I’ll bet it and close my eyes. These two teams combine for a 23-15 under record and over the last 3 games they have scored a total of 221 PPG and allowed 216 PPG. We have this game projected for 99-101.6 possessions with a low 2.12 efficiency. If you take a simple 101 possessions x 2.12 that is 214 points. These teams play at the 25th and 27th pace. Lean under here.
GAME TO MONITOR:
Last night we had CLE -3 as a play on the small 4 game slate and they went back and forth and ultimately lost. What I noticed when that game was over is that CLE scores 12 less points per 100 possessions on the Road vs. Home. So, I dug out the laptop and started doing some calculations and added a small offense vs. defense home/road split on the “Bet Tab” right below the projected paces. CLE was -3 on the road and they lost and everything points to them scoring more points at home. They opened at -4.5 and have been bet to -5.5. I’m watching this to see if they come out and cover here. MIN scores 3 less points on the road per 100, CLE scores 12 more at home and MIN also allows 6 more points per 100 on the road. Everything points to CLE here. My model has CLE -6 and spread is -5.5 so that is too close for me. But if CLE covers the -6 I’ll personally put more weight on this Home/Road split when there are large gaps. I will monitor and report back to you sports bettors!
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