I wanted to do a quick breakdown of the NBA Betting Sheet on a specific game last night. I looked over the sheet and LOVED DENVER +9.5! So why did I love Denver so much? Well I am going to show you the things that jumped out at me and what to look for on the sheet.
I labeled the first 5 things and will address them by number and then we will look at the circled stats across the bottom of the sheet. Apparently I forgot 1 so we will start with 2 that is in the top middle.
2 - This is the first place that I look because I want to see the difference of the Vegas Line and our Projections, if this is significant then I want to dig a little deeper. Here you can see we have Denver -21.3 that means we have them covering the Vegas spread by a bunch of points so I want to look further.
3 - I'm going to hit on the TOTAL really quick. We had this game going OVER (and it did not) but if you look at #5 you can see DENVER is playing at a fast pace of 106.3 and Utah a low 99.7 so that should be a flag. You have to determine will the faster or slower team take control. With this much disparity between pace I'm going to look at Vegas. Vegas line opened at 217 and went down to 215 and also has 81% of the money on the under. Those two items tell me to just fade the total or lean to the under.
Let's check the MISC TEAM STATS across the bottom and focus on the stats that I circled. You can see that DEN has a better offensive efficiency 1.18 to 1.09 meaning they are scoring about 9 more points per 100 possessions. They also have a better defensive efficiency meaning they are allowing 12 less points per 100 possessions. If you don't like efficiency metrics then I have the scored and allowed points per game (PPG). Denver is scoring 126 ppg while Utah only 109, Denver is allowing only 114 while Utah is allowing 119. This would indicate an edge for Denver but I still want to look further.
Blocks Denver has a large gap over Utah over the Last 3 games with 8.0 vs. 3.3, Steals 8.1 vs. 5.9 and Team Rebounds 58.2 vs. 49.0. Will everything pointing toward Denver why are they a +9.5 point underdog? Let's take a quick look at Team Records, Splits & Streaks on the middle right side of the screen shot. Denver is 35-16 vs. Utah 32-17 so both have solid season records. But what jumps out at me is Utah has lost 4 games in a row. This should jump out as a solid bet on Denver +9.5 and sprinkle a little on that money line. If you are curious Denver ended up winning 98-95 as a +9.5 poing dog. They were also leading on rebounds 52-46 which we could guess from the recent stats. Offensive boards also 13-7, Steals 8-5 and Blocks 5-1. So all of the indicators showed on the stat sheet. The only thing Denver didn't do well was shoot the 3 where they where 7 for 20 23.3% and they are a 35% on the season and 44% over last 3. But still managed to easily cover.
Earlier in the week we had the same stats with POR +13.5 or +625 ML when they faced the Lakers. They had a good shot at winning that game and they did. The following night POR was +200 vs. Utah and won again. I tried to ride them the next night but they shot horribly from the field and lost the game. Win some, lose some.
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