NCAA Football ALGO Plays from CheatSheetPros.
This is the first week I've wrote up anything on NCAA Football picks and looked at our ALGO projections and scores. These are not guaranteed plays and only my opinion as we start to churn out this ALGO into NCAA Football so read it and then decide if you like it or don't like it. These are my opinions of the stats the are jumping out right now.
Oklahoma State (-10) vs. Texas Tech
This was a top Red Sheet play so I was digging into the game. OSU is #1 in rush yards per game and Texas Tech is 102nd in rush yards allowed. OSU has a SOS of 25 and Texas Tech 65th. The overall ranks are 24th vs. 47th and 20 spots is where our ALGO bump kicks in so it’s just over the cut and we have this game at 43-28 while Red Sheet has it at 44-22.
Iowa (+3.5) vs. Michigan
This was the other top rated Red Sheet play for the week. Looking at the game on our NCAA CheatSheet the overall ranking of the teams are 19th and 20th. We have this game algo projected at Iowa winning 26-14 as a dog. Red Sheet has this game at Iowa winning 41-27. The two standouts in this game are the Iowa offensive live (ranked 10th) vs. the Michigan defensive line (rank 60th) and the Iowa defense which ranks 4th in points allowed, 3rd in yards allowed, 4th in TDs allowed per game, 9th in rush yards allowed per game and 20th in passing yards allowed per game. The YPP Projected line that some sports betting analytics guys use show this line could be as high as Iowa -9. Take the points!
Penn State (-27) vs. Purdue
Red Sheet has this line opening at -20 and moving to -27 and I’m showing -26 to -28.5 so either way a lot of people are looking at a blowout win by PSU. Red Sheet has this at 59-20 and our ALGO has this at 55-15. Quick look at this game gives us Penn State 17th in passing yards per game facing Purdues 112th rated passing defense. Purdue is averaging 69 rushing yards per game vs. Penn State and their 15th rated rush defense. Purdue is 8th in passing yards per game and Penn State is 63rd in passing defense. Purdue has an O-Line ranking of 129th and ranked 115th in stuff rate which means they won’t be able to run and will have to get the ball of quick. If Purdue has success in the air they may hang under the spread but the betting public is hammering PSU.
QUICK HITTERS:
UConn +11 – Slightest of leans here as we have them winning 24-20 and total going under. Both teams are 1-3, horrible offenses and horrible defenses, take the points. D-Lines for each out are 40 ranks higher than the opposing O-Lines.
Army +2.5 vs. Tulane – Stats here are similar with Army 11th in rushing offense vs. Tulane and their 89th rated rushing defense and Tulane has the 9th rated rushing offense vs. Army and their 27th rated rush defense. Neither team can throw the ball 130th and 113th ranked through the air. Army has the much better statistical defense. Tulane has played FIU, Auburn, Mizz State and Houston. Army has played Rice, Michigan, UTSA and Morgan State. Army took Michigan to the wire and loss 24-21. Taking the points as our YPP line could be as high as Army -6.
Maryland -12.5 – Slight lean here. Rutgers average ranking across the board on offense is 109.5 and defense 92.3. This includes points/game, yards/game, TDs/game, RY/G, PY/G. The only edge here is Maryland is 39th in RY/G at 191.7 and Rutgers is 101st in rushing defense giving up 197.5 per game. We have this game 39-19. Neither team is strong by lean Terps!
Wisconsin -35 – We have this ALGO projected score at 59-12, can this be anything else? Wisconsin is 15th in rushing yards per game and Kent State is 125th in rushing defense. Kent State is 37th in rushing yards per game at 195.7 but Wisconsin is the #1 rushing defense allowing only 48.8 yards per game. Kent State is 112th in allowing sacks through the O-Line and Wisconsin is 17th in D-Line sack rate and 11th in stuff rate. Blowout!
Oklahoma / Kansas – I have to hit on this game since it’s local. Line opened at OU -36 and now down to OU -32. OU ranks an average of 4th across the board for all the offensive categories and KU is an average of 76th on defense. The stat here that is key is KU is 48th in rushing yards per game at 179.8 and OU is allowing 181 RY/G (ranked 92nd). Given those were against much tougher opponents and I don’t know if OU can get up for this game since it’s a cake win but covering 32 might be a little closer. Our ALGO has this 60-35 but I can’t recommend a buck of the Sooners dominance.
Baylor/K-State under 49 – Line opened at 51 and down to 48.5. K-State is going to miss their star WR and kick returner for this game so I expect them to slow things down. K-State is 17th on defense in points allowed and Baylor is 15th. The standout stat is Baylor 32nd in RY/G at 198.7 and K-State is giving up 211.7 RY/G which is ranked at 109th.
Buffalo +3.5 – Both teams rankings, SOS and custom grades are in the same ballpark so we can look at side by side stats. When looking at rushing and passing offense and defense for both teams there are only 2 stats in the top 60. That is Buffalo rushing yards per game (16th) at 229 yards per game facing Ohio and their 119th rated rushing defense and Buffalo rushing defense allowing only 83.2 yards per game vs. Ohio and their 96th rated rushing offense. O:Line/D:Line matchups are advantage Buffalo on both sides. We have Buffalo winning 28-26 on the ALGO projection. Take the hook at +3.5!
UNC -10.5 vs. GaTech – Slight lean here on UNC -10.5. GaTech can’t throw (125th) and can barely run (58th) and UNC should be above to move the ball on the ground here with the 61st rated rushing offense vs. GT and their 114th rated rushing defense. UNC has a SOS of 5th and GT has a SOS sitting at 92. Our algo takes any team with an overall rank 20 spots apart and applies a factor to the projections and this one falls at 24 spots. The normal algo has UNC winning 26-15 covering the spread and after the factor in the algo it jumps to 34-14 easily covering the spread. Curious to see how this game plays out and which algo was closer.
SMU -12.5 – Our algo has this as 34-24 with SMU winning IF the teams were closely rated but they are not. SMU ranks 45th overall while Tulsa is a lowly 79th so the ALGO flips this score over to a 54-14 blowout. Curious to see how this one plays out. SMU is 22nd and 29th in RY/G and PY/G facing the 86th and 35th respective defense from Tulsa. Tulsa is 111th in RY/G and 50th in PY/G while SMU defense is 33th and 73rd. SMU is scoring 44.4 points per game while Tulsa is at 21.5. Lean on SMU.
Ohio State / Michigan State – Everyone is on Ohio State – 20 and they are awesome to watch this year. They rank 2nd in points per game, 5th in yards per game and 1st in TDs per game. If I were going to be this game I’d have to lean Ohio State from the gut but I’m likely going to pass because on paper Michigan State +20 looks like the better bet and I can’t buck the Buckeyes. Michigan State defensively ranks really well as they are 2nd in rush yards per game allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed. They are also only giving up 15 PPG. Our ALGO has this game at 31-14.
Thank you for reading and good luck,
Haze