Attached is the schedule of games for the weekend and I quickly marked the games we are going to discuss. You can also see the date and time and what channel they will be on.
GAME #1 - Take Buffalo (-13.5) over Ball State
We have been riding Buffalo all year and they are #1 in the nation in rush yards per game at a whopping 344.2 RY/G. They are also scoring 51.8 PPG while only allowing an average of 21 PPG. Both of our models have Buffalo covering the spread. Model #1 we have this game 59-30 and model #2 we have 48-31. These teams don't have any common opponents but Buffalo ranks #30 and Ball State just played Western Michigan which ranks #83 and they barely got by them winning 30-27. Buffalo hasn't played the best opponents but they have won 56-7, 70-41 and 42-17. Lay the points!
LEAN GAME: OHIO STATE (-20) OVER NORTHWESTERN
Northwestern has the #2 defense in least yardage allowed but they also have the 71st "O" and only scoring 25 PPG. I don't like laying 20 points but if I had to pick a side I would lean to Ohio State because Northwestern is 106th in passing "O" and only 60th in rush "O". Ohio State takes this game and should be able to cover the spread, light lean from us.
GAME #2 - Take Texas A&M (-14) over Tenneesee
A&M playoff hopes still alive as 2 of the 4 teams ahead of them are goin to face each other this weekend (ND/Clemson). TN had a great game last week but it was against a terrible Vandy team that ranks #121 and hold the 117th "D" who is also allowing 37.3 PPG. Texas A&M is another animal as they rank #16 and they are scoring 31.4 PPG and only 22 PPG. We have A&M projected with over 100 more offensive yards in this contest so we have to lay the points. Now I will point out that our models have this game around 30-17 so they have it as "close" but I just can't back a TEN offense that is 82nd. A&M rolls this one to get into a playoff spot!
GAME #3 - TAKE Iowa State (+5.5) over Oklahoma
Oklahoma has dominated this series as they are 8-2 straight up in their 10 games vs. Iowa State. Baylor is the "common opponent" and OU beat them 27-14 and Iowa State beat them 38-31. Texas is the closest comparison team I can find to OU as OU sits at #7 and Texas #18. Iowa State beat Texas 23-20 in a tight game. OU has beat up on weaker opponents like OSU, KU and Texas Tech. I don't love it but I'm taking the points. If you want to get a nice parlay run Iowa State moneyline with the OVER!
GAME #4 - Wake Forest (-6.5) over Florida State
This game opened at -7 and now -6.5. I will point out that 83% of the money is on FSU but I just don't see it. When I first looked at Vegas Insider and saw the high % I figured it would be a Florida State play but I disagree. FSU ranks #90 and WF #39. FSU is allowing 37.5 PPG while only scoring 24 PPG and WF is scoring 33 PPG and also allowing a high 34 per game. WF has a much tougher schedule rank 36th vs. 67th. I like teams that prefer to pass facing a bad pass defense and that is what we have here. WF is 34th in passing yards per game at 264.4 and FSU is allowing the 99th most passing yards per game at 258.8. Wake has the advantage playing at home where they are much better. Our model has this game 44-27 and 41-30 so lay the touchdown!
LEAN GAME: UTAH (-10.5) OVER WASHINGTON STATE
Utah is getting a ton of love in all the "consensus" picks. I'm leaning Utah just due to how bad Washington State is. They have the 101st "D" and they are allowing over 300 passing yards per game. While Utah is a beast rushing team putting up 186 RY/G they will have success either way. WSt just played USC and it was 35-6 at the half before they took their foot off the gas. Washington State played USC and Oregon and they both have around the same "D" as Utah but a much better "O" than Utah. On the other side Colorado just played Utah and they rank #45 and Washington State is #53 so I'm going to consider them "close". Utah beat them 38-21 and now I will point out Colorado (ranked 21 in the polls) was up 14-10 at the half before Utah came back and put up 28 in the 2nd half. Colorado has a much better "D" as they rank 43rd vs. 101st of Washington State and Utah rolled up 432 total yards (240 passing and 192 rushing) and 22 first downs on their way to a 38-21 win. Leaning Utah here.
GAME #5 - NOTRE DAME (+10.5) OVER CLEMSON
GAME #6 - NOTRE DAME / CLEMSON OVER 60
This game just played a few weeks ago and Notre Dame won 47-40 so I see 87 total points and get excited. Over the total is something that jumps out and one of my favorite plays. Our models have this game at 37-31 and 35-32 so scoring "over the total" of only 60. These teams average 37.7 and 45.7 PPG. Take the OVER! I don't think Notre Dame wins the game again but it's worth a small money line play at those odds. But I think +10.5 so just too many points to pass up on. In the last matchup Notre Dame put up 22 first downs, 518 total yards, 310 passing and 208 rushing and accumlated 47 points. In that game Clemson had 3 turnovers and Uiagaleilei was under center but he still managed to throw for 439 yards and two scores. Tight game with lots of points. Take the POINTS!
GAME #7 - ALABAMA (-17) OVER FLORIDA
I've always faded 'Bama due to the matchup, the large spread, etc. and they just keep rolling. In the last 5 games for 'Bama they have only allowed 3, 17, 13, 3 and 0 points while scoring 52, 55, 42, 63 and 41. Wow! They hold the #1 offense with a 49.5 PPG overage and a top 12 defense only allowing 16.8 PPG. They win their games by an average of 32.6 points! Let's look at come "common opponents". Florida just played LSU (#46) losing 34-37 in a tight game. 'Bama played them the game before last and thumped them 55-17. Both teams also played Arkansas (#69) and 'Bama won 52-3 and held them to only 188 total yards and caused 4 turnovers and while Florida did win 63-35, they also allowed 35 points on "D" and gave up 458 yards. PW also has almost a 67% win rate on #1 rated plays and Alabama is one of their two #1 plays released for this weekend.
NEAR PLAYS THAT DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT:
Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati and UAB.
NFL (6 POINT) 4 TEAM TEASER FOR THE WEEKEND: Pays +240
PACKERS (-2.5) - Our model has this 30-23 so I definitely won't want to lay the -8.5 spread. CAR will get exposed here as they can't pressure the QB so Rodgers will throw it all over with plenty of time and they can't stop the run. Packers allow 24.8 PPG so don't feel good about laying the spread but I'll lay a FG!
BUFFALO (PK) - After beating PIT last week they get Denver who is struggling on offense with 19.8 PPG which ranks 29th in the NFL. Our model has this 30-18 Bills. Teasing it down you don't have to worry about a last min back door cover.
COLTS (-1) - Colts at home should easily be able to knock off the Texans. Texans have a terrible D-Line that ranks 29th, they are 31st in pass protection and they can't run as they rank 32nd in rush yards per game. HOU can only air it out as that is their only option and this IND "D" ranks 6th vs the pass. Jonathan Taylor will run wild again and eat up the clock once they get the lead as HOU allows over 150 rushing yards per game and they rank 28th and 29th in explosive runs. Colts don't let this one get away!
BUCS (PK) - This line opened at Tampa -1.5 and quickly moved to -6 and now it's back down to -5.5. We have this 28-24 but I think it's more a 28-14 or 28-17 game. Falcons are 20th in pass protection and Bucs are 3rd in pressure applied to the QB in passing situations so Ryan will have people in his face all day. Atlanta can't run as they average only 97 RY/G which ranks 26th and the Bucs have a stout rush "D" that ranks 2nd and only allowing 80.9 RY/G. I don't mind laying the spread but teasing it down to "pick'em" and I'm all over it!
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze