NCAA & NFL Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Our article plays are now 6-1 over the last two weeks. It has been hard to research NCAA games because every time I would get my write up down then 2-3 of those games would get cancelled and pulled off the board. This has been very frustrating time to put it mildly but we are still kicking out some winners for you!
ARTICLE LAST WEEK: 4-0
NCAA BEST BETS:
COASTAL CAROLINA (-13.5) OVER TROY
Coastal Carolina is 9-0 and scoring 38.1 PPG and only allowing 16.2 on defense. That is amazing! They have an average winning margin of 21.9 points. We have this game in our NCAA Betting sheet at 41-22 so easily covering the two TDs. Troy is a measly 4-5 scoring around 25 PPG and allowing 26 PPG. They are losing game by an average margin of 1 point with a strength of schedule rated at 109th. One of the other things I like to dig into is common opponents. Both teams have played APP STATE and Coastal beat them 34-23 and Troy lost 47-10. Coastal also just beat a BYU team that was averaging 45 PPG coming into the matchup and Coastal held them to 17. This just seems too easy!
BUFFALO (-32.5) OVER AKRON
First, I hate laying this many points but the teams like Buffalo and Kent State so much fun to watch. Buffalo is scoring 50.8 PPG and only allowing 24.5. They also have an average winning margin of 31.0 PPG with the same strength of schedule as their opponent Akron who has an average losing margin of 26.2 PPG. Buffalo has the #2 rushing offense in yards per game at 323! Yes 323 that is crazy! Now they get to face Akron and their 114th rated rushing defense that is allowing 225 rushing yards per game. Buffalo averages 511 total offensive yards per game and we have them projected at 555 for this game. Akron can’t run as they are 82nd in rush yards per game and they can’t pass as they are 113th in pass yards per game. Our model which we price our NCAA Betting sheet on has this game at 56-17 and 62-16. LAY IT!
I’m still digging through some more NCAA games but my Miami (OH), Kent State over, Indiana and Cincy games have all BEEN CANCELLED! UGH!
NFL BEST BETS:
COLTS (-3) OVER RAIDERS
We have this game as 28-25 but I think it is going to be much more lopsided. So we have the 16th and 14th rated offenses and both teams put up between 365-370 total yards per game. However, there is a drastic difference on the defensive side of the ball. You have the Colts with the 4th best “D” and the Raiders hold the 24th rated “D”. Colts are only allowing 100.9 rushing yards per game (7th) and 218 passing yards per game (8th). Raiders are allowing 257 passing yards a game which ranks 24th and Rivers will be able to throw it all over. So how does the pass protection look? Colts are rated 8th at pass pro and the Raiders are 30th in pressure rate so Rivers should have plenty of time. On the other side Raiders are 11th in pass pro and Colts are 12th in pressure rate.
SAINTS (-7) OVER PHILLY
We have this game at 27-16. You have the Saints who have the 8th best “O” facing the Eagles who have the 29th rated “O” this year and they are also starting a rookie QB in Jalen Hurts. Saints have the 5th best “D” and Eagles are 15th. The biggest thing that jumps out is our new feature of the pass pro tool on our NFL cheatsheet that was suggested by one of our members. Eagles are 32nd in pass protection meaning they are giving their QB no time to throw the ball or make reads and the Saints are #1 in putting pressure on the QB. Taysom has been getting better each week and the Eagles are 24th in passing “D” and 30th vs. short passes and 32nd vs. deep passes. Saints have the 2nd best “D” and they are allowing a low 3.3 yards per carry which is 2nd best in the NFL. Saints only way to go!
ATLANTA / CHARGERS OVER 49 TOTAL POINTS
We have this game at 51.5 points sliding over the total. Both of these teams play at a great pace as you can see on our NFL Cheatsheet. Atlanta ranks 4th in total pace and Chargers rank 5th. Neither team can run the ball as they rank 31st and 29th in rushing so that is great for a total going over. Atlanta is the 20th rated passing “O” and the Chargers are the 12th best passing “O”. ATL is allowing a whopping 285.2 passing yards per game which ranks 30th so Herbert should have a big day through the air. Both teams are also allowing a combined PPG of 54.0 and scoring a combined 49 PPG on offense. Both teams also give up a large chunks of yards on the ground. ATL is allowing 4.5 yards per rush (20th) and LAC 4.6 yards per rush (27th). Both teams are also passing at a 60% and 59% clip. I want to talk about the “Pace” factor again. I look at overall pace, 1H pace, 2H pace and then pace ranks if the team is leading, trailing or in a neutral situation and they are all broke out on my cheatsheet. EVERY PACE STAT is in the top 12 and 10 of the 12 are in the top 8. I haven’t looked at the weather so as long as there isn’t anything crazy I’m going over the total here.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser: 1 UNIT
SAINTS (-7 TO -0.5) & PACKERS (-7.5 TO -1):
Saints – See write up above. Packers is an easy pick but don’t like laying the 7 with the hook to 7.5. WE have this game at 34-25 but teasing them down to basically win by 1+ gives me more confidence. This game features the Packers and their #2 “O” facing the Lions and their #32 “D”. Packers are scoring 31.6 PPG and shouldn’t have any road blocks here. Lions are the #15 “O” facing the Packers 20th rated “D”. Golladay has been ruled out. If Swift is a go then they should be able to move the ball on the ground but I don’t see them knocking off the Packers.
MY EARLY BET NFL TEASER: 4 TEAMS (6.5 POINTS) PAYS +250
PACKERS (-1) / TAMPA BAY (-0.5) / CHIEFS (-1) / STEELERS (+8.5)
TAMPA BAY – Tampa Bay at home facing a banged up Dalvin Cook. Monster advantage for Bucs as they rank #3 in pass protection and MIN is 24th in pressure. Tampa is 5th in defensive pressure and MIN is 24th in pass pro. Long tough day for Cousins.
KANSAS CITY – Should be a good game but since I live in KC had to get some action on those Chiefs without laying the 7.
STEELERS – I will gladly tease this up to +8.5 and take the #1 “D” in the NFL. Bills hold the 16th best “D” and they aren’t likely to shut down these Steelers.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze