NFL Sports Betting Picks WEEK 12 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week we had another BEST BET win with the New England Patriots moving our Algo Best Bets to a solid 11-3 on the year and we have another one this week for you! As always, we are going to give you our “Best Bets” and then our lean games that were close.
BEST BETS FOR WEEK 12:
Baltimore Ravens (-3) over LA Rams!
Vegas line opened at pick and quickly moved to Ravens -3. We have this game on our NFL CheatSheet Algo as 30-23 easily covering the 3. If you use the YPP Algo that is used by a lot of professional sports betting gurus then they would have this as Baltimore -6. Baltimore is #1 in PPG at 34.1 while the Rams are 12th with 24.3 PPG. Both teams are allowing close to the same amount of points per game at 19.6 and 19.8. Both teams have solid rush defenses allowing only 94.3 rush yards per game for the Ravens and 89.1 for the Rams. Rams have struggled as of late barely beating the hapless Bears 17-7, then losing to a beat up PIT team 17-12 and only hanging 24 on the Bengals. Ravens have been surging beating Houston in what was supposed to be a tight game 41-7, then facing the Bengals they dropped a 49-13 bomb on them and even beat the Patriots 37-20. Over the last 4 games the Ravens are averaging 39.25 points per game. This line on this game is off and take the gift at -3 as this should be -6 or even -7!
LEANS FOR THE WEEK: These are the games that are jumping out at us but didn’t quite make the cut in our “Best Bets”.
DETROIT (-3.5) over Washington:
My NFL cheatsheet algo has this game DET 24 over WAS 16. I also have a secondary algo I run in google sheets kind of behind the scenes and it picked it at 24-18. Again if you are looking at the YPP algo that the sharps are using they would have this as high as DET -8! DET is averaging 24.4 points per game (11th) while WAS is dead last at 12.5 points per game and they are starting Haskins the rest of the year. WAS should have success running the ball as DET is giving up 124.2 rushing yards per game (24th) and they have Derrius Guice and AP so Haskins shouldn’t have to do much work. DET is leaning on Bo Scarbrough, who has looked pretty solid and WAS is giving up 133.9 rushing yards per game (28th). The edge here for me is Jeff Driskel > Haskins. Driskel has 71 pass attempts in 2 games and only 1 pick in those attempts while tossing for 3 TDs. He even hung with a tough Dallas team and lost 35-27. He also rushed for 37 and 51 yards in those two games getting it done on the ground. Haskins has 79 pass attempts across 4 games and has tossed 5 picks and been sacked a whopping 14 times already. If DET can hang with the high powered Cowboys then shouldn’t have a problem with the lowly Skins, lay the -3.5 here.
NYG (+220) over CHICAGO:
Our NFL Algo has this as a 21-20 game with the Bears squeaking out a “W”. So you can take the +6 or +7 but I’d rather take this monster +220 moneyline. If this game comes down to the wire I don’t think Chicago is going to win it. Yes both teams are horrible and Mitchell T. starting is the worst thing for them right now. Bears are 28th in PPG at 16.7, 30th in offensive yards per game at 262.7, 29th in rushing yards per game at 79.9 and 30th in passing yards per game at 182.8 and you are telling me the Giants can’t muster up some offense to beat those stats? Saquon Barkely, Danny Dimes, Golden Tate, Sterling Shephard, come on guys! The NYG have at least put up 27, 18, 26 and 21 points in their last 4 games while the Bears have only put up 7, 20, 14 and 16. This is going to come down to an ugly Bears offense vs. an ugly Giants defense. I think this is a 50/50 game here so +220 is a gift.
SEATTLE +1.5 over PHILLY:
Seattle is the betting public pick here. Line opend at +3 down to +1.5 or +1. We have Seattle winning 25-24 in a tight game. Sports Betting algo line is Seattle -3.5. My only fear in this game and the reason I likely won’t bet it is that Seattle has a horrible pass defense that is giving up 271.8 passing yards per game (28th). Wentz should be able to go down the field fairly easy keeping this a tight game. Philly has turned their defense around and allowing only 86 rushing yards per game (4th) and 237.5 passing yards per game (17th).
MIAMI +10.5 over BROWNS:
Yes the Browns actually think they are a real football team but their coaching is awful. Chubb should run all over them as the Dolphins are allowing 148 rushing yards per game (31st). Running the ball keeps the clock moving. Browns are only averaging 19.2 points per game (25th) and the Dolphins are scoring 14 points per game (31st) so I’m taking the +10.5 here. Sports betting algo line is CLE -6 so they priced 10.5 as to high for me.
3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER:
SAINTS (+10 down to pick), NEW ENGLAND (-6 to +4), BALTIMORE (-3 to +7):
The rule of thumb on teasers is you are not supposed to cross 0 as that is a losing battle in the long run. However, Saints down to pick follows the rule of not crossing 0 and we have them winning by 4 (hopefully more) as that defense has been a beast recently and they are at home. Baltimore we have winning the game easily so getting points is just a cushion. Patriots have a big game at home this week facing the Cowboys. That defense will be tested and a lot of people are on the Cowboys to win. I doubt that happens but if they do win it’s hard to bet the Patriots by more than a FG.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze