NFL Week 6 ALGO Bets from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL Algo Bets started in Week 5 and last week were 3-1-1 and barely missed going 4-1.
NFL ALGO BEST BETS:
BALTIMORE (-11) over CINCY
ALGO PROJECTION: Baltimore 31 vs. Cincy 18
Vegas line opened at Baltimore -8.5 and now out to -11. Baltimore runs 72.6 plays per game which is the most in the NFL. They also average a whopping 26.4 FD per game. They are still #1 in PPG at 32.2 and 2nd in RY/G at 192.2. Cincy is allowing 27.2 PPG on the year and their rushing defense ranks 26th and their passing defense ranks 31st. Baltimore should be able to put up 30 this week with ease. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram should both have big games. Cincy is only scoring 16 PPG which ranks 29th and only 13.3 PPG on the road. The one nut kicker here is that Cincy is 9th in passing yards per game (usually because they are losing and playing catch up) and Baltimore has a leaky pass defense which ranks 29th allowing 280 PY/game.
SEATTLE (-1) over CLEVELAND
ALGO PROJECTION: Seattle 26 vs. Cleveland 19
Vegas line opened at Seattle +2.5 and has been bet all the way to Seattle -1. After the 49’ers wrecked havoc on Cleveland everyone is jumping ship. Cleveland is still a good team they are just not in sync right now and the 49’ers have a great defense. Seattle is averaging 6 more FDs per game and 6 more plays per game. Seattle is sitting at 26.6 PPG which ranks 8th vs. CLE who is at 18.4 (25th). Other than those stats these teams are nearly identical. Both allowing 24 PPG on defense along with 350ish yards per game. So Cleveland gives up a ton of rushing yards per game 150.8 (29th) vs. only 206 in the air (7th). Seattle gives up only 80 rushing yards per game (4th) and 270 passing yards per game (26th). So technically CLE shoud be able to throw it and Seattle should be able to run it. I’m going to go with the ALGO on this one and take the 4-1 team that has put up 30, 27, 27 and 28 points in their L4 games while CLE is finding their rhythm.
HOUSTON (+4.5) over KANAS CITY
ALGO PROJECTION: Kansas City 27 vs. Houston 26
Vegas line opened at Houston +8.5 and has quickly moved to +4.5 and even down to +4 in some books. The ML opened at +215 and down to +175. KC is a great team but Mahomes is hurting (ankle) and we saw how rough of a passer he was when he wasn’t able to scramble around. Also there are a ton of injuries and questionable players for this week. Doesn’t look like Watkins is going to play, Tyreek is Q so they may be going to war with Kelce, Pringle, Robinson and the RB core. Houston is red hot right now after that big win last week. This game lines up with Houston 10th in rushing with 129.4 RY/G and Kansas City is allowing 155.8 RY/G which ranks 30th. Kansas City is 1st in passing yards per game at 356 and Houston is allowing 270.4 which ranks 25th. Strength of one team is the weakness of the other. Teams are scoring about the same PPG with Houston 26.2 and KC 29.6 and allowing the same with HOU 22 and KC 22.6. I look for this game to be close and somewhat of a shootout. I don’t mind the +180ish number on Houston ML as I think that is a tad high with all the injuries but if you can get the hook at +4.5 that is rock solid!
SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over LA RAMS
ALGO PROJECTION: San Francisco 29 vs. LA Rams 24
Vegas line opened at San Fran +5 and now down to San Fran +3 to +3.5. Offensively these teams are identical on paper. Offensive PPG: SF 31.8 (2nd) vs. LAR 29.2 (6th), Offensive Yards per game: SF 427 (4th) vs. LAR 415 (5th) but the defensive side is another story. SF is allowing only 14.1 PPG (4th) while LAR are allowing 26.8 (26th). Everyone saw that San Fran defensive in prime time so it’s no secret anymore. They are allowing 100 less yards per game overall AND SF ranks 5th in RY allowed and 2nd in PY allowed. LAR sits in the middle of the pack at 15th and 16th respectively. The YPP algo line that a lot of sports betting analytic people use would put this game as high as San Fran -8. I’ll explain more on that in another article but you’ll never see that in a Casino because people would hammer the Rams. Take the +3 or even the moneyline as this should be a great game!
NFL other games that don’t fall into our “Best Bets”:
TEN 20 vs. DEN 18 – We have TEN winning this game and Vegas is on the other side as betters opened this game at pick and down Denver -2. Teams are very close on paper but Tennessee should be able to run the ball as Denver is giving up 126.4 RY/G which ranks 22nd.
DALLAS 23 vs. NYJ 14 – I don’t hate this projection but I don’t think it is a best bet with Sammy D coming back. Dallas -7 and have them winning by 9 isn’t doing enough for me. Dallas is clearly the better team and NYJ are allowing averaging 9.8 PPG on the year but I watched Dallas struggle in the first half vs. Miami and with Darnold coming back I’ll likely stay away or play it lite!
WASHINGTON 19 vs. MIAMI 9 – Nothing exciting in this game but IF Keenum does get the start I like Washington in this game. Both teams are terrible but with Keenum under C they were actually able to move the ball and put up some yards he just had some terrible turnovers that killed him. I don’t have a desire to bet crap teams but algo has WAS taking this one down.
PHILLY 26 vs. MINNY 22 – This is one ALGO that I DO NOT LIKE! I like MINNY in this game to win and cover the -3. Minnesota @ Home is a beasty defense! Minny overall rank 9th in rushing yards per game allowed and 6th in passing yards per game allowed. The hole here is in the Philly secondary as they rank 27th giving up 271 yards per game. Theiland and Diggs should have a hayday here. Lean Minny -3 against the ALGO!
SAINTS 24 vs. JAC 21 – Saints opened at +1.5 and still getting +1.5. JAC is giving up 136.6 RY/G (25th) and then all the other numbers are close enough to call a wash. If Marshon shadow covers D.J. Chark Saints could roll this game up pretty easy!
MONSTER TEASER SPECIAL:
Most sportsbooks offer a 3 team 10 point teaser. Some offer up to 13 point teasers for 4 teams which are my favorite but my book is stuck at 10 so pick any 3 of these games below. I can’t decide which 3 I’m going to go with for the weekend:
BALTIMORE -1 *Leaning here.
SEATTLE +8 *Leaning here.
SAINTS +11.5 *Leaning here.
SAN FRAN +13
Watch your book for Superbowl odds that constantly change and update. Here are a few teams that I would look at betting at this point. I would bet enough to make the cover worthwhile as it is going to be hard to be the Patriots this year but if you bet a team and they make the championship game you can cover your bet and guarantee a profit!
SAN FRANCISCO +1400
Thanks for reading my article and good luck!
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