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NFL Betting Picks - Week 9


NFL Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NFL Week 9 is on deck so here are some of our bets that we have identified from the NFL sheet this week. Make sure to watch the weather as we originally had CLE/LV over last week but after the 8 point line drop to the under and the 30-50mph wind gusts we quickly got off of it. Also, Monday movements are key. I heard the Vegas odds makers talking about a crazy win rate on Monday line movements. If you get our cheat sheets they auto update the Vegas odds when you open the sheet. So Tuesday morning I would open the sheet and write down all the line movements and track them.

NFL BEST BETS:

These are the best bets that I’ve put together using our NFL cheat sheets!

SEATTLE / BUFFALO OVER 54.5

ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: 57.3 total points

ALGO PROJECTED LINE: 57

VEGAS MOVEMENT: Opened at 51 and quickly moved 54.5 and 55 in some spots. 88% of the bets are on the over.

NOTES: This game has everything we want in an over with Seattle sitting at #1 in the NFL in points per game at 34.3 and Seattle allowing the most passing yards per game at 358.7. Seattle it throwing at a 61% clip so that means they are either moving down the field quickly or stopping the clock. Seattle is also allowing 28.4 points per game. Buffalo needs to score to get this total and they have the path through the air with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo is putting up 24.8 points per game and allowing 24.9 points per game. The Vegas line usually moves to our algo totals on our cheat sheet so this helps us grab an early line. Our algo has 57.3, line opened at 51 and now up to 55 in some spots so it is catching up. Buffalo is allowing 134.5 rushing yards per game and they rank 31st vs. WR-1 coverage so I think Buffalo can stay in this game enough to hit the over. Tyler Lockett runs out of the slot 58% of his routes and Taron Johnson is allowing a massive 81% catch rate and covering the slot 95% of the time. DK Metcalf is un-guardable at 6’3” 229lbs but Tre’Davious White will do his best attempt to shadow coverage DK. HIT THE OVER!

STEELERS (-14) OVER DALLAS

ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: PIT 32 vs. DAL 21

ALGO PROJECTED LINE: PIT – 10.5

VEGAS MOVEMENT: Opened -13.5 and has moved to -14 with 84% of the bets.

NOTES: Our algo has this as a -10.5 point game using the season stats. Now since Dak went down Dallas has been dreadful. No Andy Dalton in this game so they are looking at a 3rd string QB (likely Cooper Rush) and even Zeke is banged up with a quad. Dallas ranks 27th on “O” and 25th on “D”. DAL has scored 9, 3 and 10 points in their last 3 games so that is just over 7 points per game and now they face PIT and that #2 “D” in the NFL (2nd vs. rush, 6th vs. pass) and I don’t know how they are going to move the ball. So the question is can PIT get over 22 points to get the cover? YES! If this game was only 22-7 I would be shocked. DAL is 29th in rushing “D” so James Conner is going to have a big game, I mean DAL is allowing 170.9 rushing yards per game, Wow! I have PIT putting up 31 points in this game (4 touchdowns and a FG) and I don’t see a path for DAL to get to 17 points. LAY THE POINTS!

TAMPA BAY (-4.5) OVER NEW ORLEANS

ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Tampa Bay 30 vs. Saints 25

ALGO PROJECTED LINE: -4.5 with YPP line showing it could be TB -6.5.

VEGAS MOVEMENT: No movement.

NOTES: Our algo is close to the actual spread but the yard per point line which is what a lot of sports betters run off of show this line at Tampa -6.5. Tampa is coming off a disappointing game last week where they just didn’t get excited about playing the lowly NYG but that defense is still beasty and ranks 1st in the NFL. Tampa will be ready for this game because it is against a strong opponent and it is a prime time game. Tampa is also getting the first game with Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin looks like he will be able to play. There two offenses are 5th and 6th and the defenses are 8th and 1st so this should be a good matchup. These two teams are also averaging 29.4 and 30.9 points per game and Tampa is only allowing 20.6 PPG while the Saints are allowing 28.1.

The main difference that jumps out at me is that Tampa has the better defense and in particular their pass defense ranks 2nd vs. WR-1, 13th vs. WR-2 and 6th vs. WR-3s. Saints rank 29th vs. WR-1, 32nd vs. WR-2 and 26th vs. WR-3. Now you add in that Tom Brady has Godwin, Evans, Brown and Miller with Gronk at TE. Woah! Now remember these two teams played already in Week 1 and the Saints took the game 34-23 and picked Brady twice. So do you think Brady is hungry for a revenger? Michael Thomas was held to 3 catches for 17 yards in that game so don’t expect a big blow up game.

That Saint D is just headed in the wrong direction. The last 4 games they have allowed 23, 24, 27 and 29 points to the Bears, Panthers, Chargers and Lions. The Bucs gave up 23 to the NYG with a TD pass at the end of the game so realistically it was 17 points, then held the Raiders to 20 points, Packers 10 points and did allow 20 points the Bears. -4.5 is a key number so I like it better teased down but I think Tampa comes out ready to play in this game and that defense will be pumped up playing at home against a team that gave them a loss to start the year.

SPECIALTY TEASERS:

This is a bet where you pick 3 teams and you get a 10 point swing in the Vegas line and all 3 games have to win. These are my favorite things to bet for NFL. Now you can’t bet several of them because the juice will eat you up but I usually have one very large teaser each week.

FREE SQUARE FOR THE TEASER THIS WEEK:

STEELERS (-14) TEASE DOWN TO (-4): See the write up above, no way Dallas stays in this game with a 3rd string QB and banged up RB. PIT will roll this game and laying -4 instead of -14 should be a free square on the teaser card this week.

PICK 2 FROM THESE PLAYS:

SEATTLE/BUFFALO OVER 55 TEASE DOWN TO 45: See my write up above, love the over but teased down this makes it a much easier bet.

TAMPA BAY -4 TEASED TO +6: See write up above. I like Tampa in this game playing at home against a team that knocked them off in Week 1. Tampa gets a new toy with Antonio Brown and that defense will be pumped up. If this game stays close I like Tampa +6 that way you cover the 3 and 4 point key numbers and you have the home team.

BALTIMORE -1.5 TEASED TO +8.5: Baltimore almost made my straight bet pick and honestly I’ll probably bet them but I can’t justify it on paper. Both of these defenses rank 3rd and 5th in the NFL and statistically they are almost dead even across the board. I think Baltimore has the better and more explosive team and I will lay the -1.5. I’m not worried about Indy who is barely rushing for 100 yards per game (25th) in the NFL while Baltimore is rushing for 178.7 yards per game (1st). Should be a good game and I like laying -1.5 with the Ravens but you give me +8.5 and that just seams like another free square. If nothing else this game should be close and I can’t see Indy putting the Ravens down by 9 after PIT and that top defensive unit was only able to squeak by with a 4 point win.

VIKINGS -4 TEASED TO +6: Vikings at home facing a team that is allowing 130 rushing yards per game (23rd). If this game stays close +6 gets you over the 3 and 4 key numbers and I like the home team with the points. If Stafford is unable to play then this is another free square for me. If Stafford plays then I think it’s just equal to the other games listed above. MIN has the 3rd best rushing “O” and facing the 21st rushing “D”. MIN should be able to run the ball and keep DET off the field to keep the game close.