NFL Week 5 "Daily Fantasy Breakdown"!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I wanted to get back into the DFS breakdowns this week so why not start with an "Early Mid Week" look ahead at Week 5? I've posted a bunch of articles on sports betting and player props and wanted to get back onto some DFS breakdowns so some of our newer users can understand how I'm looking at the NFL Cheatsheet. I might post a late week NFL DFS video when we get more injury news so people can watch me walk through the sheet.
DAILY FANTASY STACKS!
HIGH END STACK:
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee + CeeDee Lamb - So the Rams and Bills jumped out as the most expensive stacks with high totals but Allen Robinson has been struggling and not getting the targets so I pivoted the cheatsheet over to WR1 with TE1 so I could price Higbee. Kupp & Higbee are the top two options right now in the Rams passing game.
MIDDLE TIER STACKS:
Teddy Bridgewater, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle & Garrett Wilson - Cost of the stack is only 25,300 on Draftkings and they have an implied team total of 24 points and the highest ceiling of any other 3+1 stack as you can see in the chart above. The chart is sorted by CEILING VALUE. Below you can see our new "QB Protection vs. Pressure" chart that was brought back below. Now Tua isn't playing this week but Teddy should be protected and has great WRs to target. NYJ have the 29th passing defense and Miami has the 2nd best passing offense. We have also watched NYJ give up 20, 27, 30 and 24 points this year.
Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson & Jakobi Meyers is one of the most consistent performing stacks that is priced well. Sorting the NFL cheatsheet STACK tab to average fantasy points/average value will show you how the stack has been performing. We see this stack above with an average value of 3.4x which is much higher than the 2.88x and 2.8x stacks behind it.
CHEAP STACK:
Mac Jones (if he plays), Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor + Amon-Ra St. Brown - This stack is GPP only and dirt cheap coming in at only 21,600 for the combo of players which is the 3rd cheapest stack on the entire slate with projected WR1/WR2 + runback WR1. This also leaves 6400 average per player which is a huge amount of money to fill in with studs. Detroit has allowed 48, 28, 27 and 38 points and they rank 32nd in total defense.
DAILY FANTSY TARGETS:
GEORGE PICKENS (DK 4300 / FD 5500)
You need exposure to Pickens this week! He is dirt cheap and has 15 targets in the last two weeks. Kenny Pickett loves throwing to him so his stock is climbing. Last week Pickens caught 6 balls on 8 targets for 102 yards while Diontae Johnson caught 2 balls on 4 targets for 11 yards and Pickens nearly 2000 cheaper on Draftkings.
CHRIS GODWIN (DK 5900 / FD 7000)
Tom Brady needs more pass catchers and Godwin stepped right in last week and got 10 targets tied with Mike Evans (10) but yet Godwin is 1000 less on Draftkings than Mike Evans.
TYLER HIGBEE (DK 4300 / FD 5500)
Looking at the TARGET tab on the NFL cheatsheet we can see that Tyler Higbee continues to operate as the #2 passing option in the Rams offense. He had another 14 targets last week which was tied for the 2nd highest on the week with Tyreek Hill and only behind Cooper Kupp (19). In the first 4 weeks this season Higbee has amassed 11, 9, 4 and 14 targets putting him at 11th in targets per game (9.5) at nearly half the price of the 10 guys ahead of him.
WR/CB MATCHUP UPGRADES:
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Myles Bryant
Brown runs 65% of his routes out of the slot and has a solid 70% catch rate. Myles Bryant covers the slot 74% of the time for the Patriots and has one of the lowest grades by PFF at 46.1. Bryant is also allowing a 78% catch rate and 112.3 QB passer rating when targeted. He is projected to be covered by Myles Bryant on 38 snaps which is much higher than the average 15-22 snaps for other matchups.
Tyreek Hill vs. M. Carter (NYJ)
Tyreek Hill moves all over but runs 36% of his snaps from the slot position and Michael Carter covers the slot 94% of the time for the Jets and has a lower 59.8 PFF grade. He is projected for 27 snaps vs. Carter which is a huge boost to Tyreek Hill.
Cooper Kupp vs. Jourdan Lewis
Cooper Kupp runs 54% of his routes out of the slot and Jourdan Lewis covers the slot 91% of the time for the Cowboys and has a 52.0 PFF grade. Lewis is allowing an 87% catch rate in his coverage and a 103.5 QB passer rating when he is targeted. Lewis hasn’t had to cover anyone great this year (Gage, Boyd and Richie James) so Cooper Kupp will be an entire new challenge for him. Kupp is projected for 41 snaps against Lewis.
SNEAKY CALL:
GREG DORTCH (CARDINALS) vs. JOSIAH SCOTT
Josiah Scott is allowing a 75% catch rate and a QB passer rating of 158.3 when targeted. Scott also covers the slot routes 75% of the time so this is a huge boost to whoever is running in the slot. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are elite corners so who do you think they want to go after? Darius Slay is allowing a 56.1 QB rating when targeted and has the 3rd highest coverage grade and only allowing a 28.6% catch rate. James Bradberry is allowing a 50.8 QB rating and a 41.2% catch rate and has the 10th highest coverage grade. Slay & Bradberry typically stay on the outside and Slay will usually cover the WR-1 from the opposing team if necessary which would be Marquise Brown. Darius Slay held DJ Chark to a 3/55/0 line in Week 1, then had Justin Jefferson in Week 2 and only allowed 1 catch on 7 targets for 7 yards. Week 3 was Terry McLaurin who got a 2/18/0 line on 5 targets and then last week covered a nobody who didn’t have a catch in his coverage. Greg Dortch runs 88% of his routes out of the slot which is the premier matchup. Rondale Moore runs 39% from the slot and Marquise Brown 24%. Dortch is projected for 40 snaps vs. Josiah Scott while Brown only 18 and Moore only 7.
LINEUP SHELLS:
I don't like giving out a full specific lineup but I'm happy to provide you a "shell" to get started. These are for GPPs where you are wanting to stack a QB with 2 pass catchers and run back with a pass catcher from the other side. I'm not saying to "play these" but these are some that jump out at me early in the week.
LAST WEEK RECAP:
This is the best possible lineup from last week. I am just posting this to show you how crazy it might look. Don't be afraid to spend <$50,000 on DK as this top lineup had $49,100 and left $900 on the table. The QB had a pass catcher and one of the run back players from the other side. When building make sure your lineups makes sense (i.e. stacking a QB with a pass catcher or a RB with a defense)
Good Luck!
Haze