NFL “Daily Fantasy Breakdown” Week 13!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and wish you and your family a happy and safe holiday! This week we dive into Week 13 with some picks and plays so let’s get started! Sorry I didn't get a DFS breakdown last week with the holiday as my entire family was ill. My daugther came home sick, the next day my son game home sick and then Black Friday my wife came down with strep and spent 2 days in bed before finally deciding to take meds. Everyone is back healthy now and on the upswing so let's get some DFS action together!
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DAILY FANTASY STACKS:
One of the things I like about the NFL cheatsheet is the ease that you can sort out the QB + 2 pass catchers and run back with an opponent pass catcher and find the cost of the stack, projection of that stack, average points produced and the stack ceiling. I also have a column to the right that shows how much cap space the stack will cost and the average salary left over so you can quickly scroll through and decide if it’s a stars and scrubs kind of stack or not.
NEW YORK JETS
Wow, what a week by Mike White going 22 of 28 for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns! He put up 27.8 DKPs at (4900) and that is pushing 6x value! This week he climbs up to only (5400) and the Vikings have the 27th rated pass defense allowing 327.3 passing yards per game (32nd) so why not give him another shot? I mean the Vikings have allowed 26, 30 and 30 points in the last 3 games. Garrett Wilson (5300) is also dirt cheap and put up 26.4 DKP last week which is around 5x value. Last week was 8 targets, 5 grabs for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns. No other pass catcher is getting targeted near the rate of Wilson. Tyler Conklin, Uzomah and Corey Davis each had 3 targets last week so Garrett Wilson is clearly the favorite pass catcher for Mike White. Zonovan Knight (4600) would be the only second option for the NYJ that I would consider. Last week he rushed 14 times for 69 yards (4.9 ypc) and caught all 3 targets for 34 yards. Michael Carter has been awful and was a DNP on Wednesday so likely he doesn’t play this week. In the last 2 games Carter has 6 and 8 rush attempts and averaged 3.5 and 2.4 ypc, eeek!
Trevor Lawrence (5900) is really cheap this week playing in a game with a 51.5 total and no weather concerns. He put up 28.9 DKPs last week so he was pushing 5x value which is great for GPPs. He has 3x-4x+ in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Zay Jones (4900) went nuts last week with 30.5 DKPs and that is a 6x value and the prior week Christian Kirk (6300) went off for 34.5 DKPs so we like one of these guys to go off with Lawrence this week. The run back WR has to be Amon-Ra St. Brown (7100) who put up 30.9 DKPs last week, 15 the week prior and the 25.1 the week prior to that. No other pass catcher for the Lions has the upside as Amon-Ra. I would only take 1 pass catcher with Lawrence as their offense doesn’t support 2 upside pass catchers and Etienne should play this week and that would eat into any other WR crushing value.
This game has a total of only 46.5 so hopefully we can get some lower ownership on the Dolphins in a tough matchup. Miami has scored 30, 39, 35 and 31 points over the last 4 weeks and remember last week they had 30 points at halftime if I remember correctly. That San Fran defense should scare some people off but Tua (6700), Tyreek (8800) and Waddle (7400) are priced fair and explosive. I love stacking them in a game that is going to be close or a game they are possibly going to be down. They are a +4 point dog right now so that is a perfect spot for production. Tyreek Hill is (8800) but he has a 45, 32.7, 34.5 and 30.3 DKP game so the upside is there. Jaylen Waddle (7400) is slightly less but doesn’t quite have the upside of Hill. Remember in Week 2 where Tyreek Hill had 45 DKPs and Jaylen Waddle had 43.1? Unreal production! That also put Tua at 43.9 DKPs.
Pay up for Nick Chubb (8000) as facing Houston is a smash spot with them allowing 4.9 yards per carry and 154 rushing yards per game. DeShaun Watson shouldn’t be asked to “air-it-out” in his first week back and Cleveland is still a run-first team. Chubb is great for cash and don’t mind him for GPP but his upside ceiling is around 4x so wouldn’t lock him in as a core play if doing several GPP lineups. If you want to win a GPP that has 100,000+ players that you need to have 5x-6x upside for the majority of players but Chubb has a ceiling for around 30-32 points. He had 32.3 DKPs in Week 2 and that was 87 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns and 3 grabs for 26 yards. Hard to get higher than that!
Josh Jacobs exploded last week 51.3 DKPs and will hopefully play again this week. He will be limited in practice all week in hopes to play in what is a monster matchup against the Chargers. Chargers are allowing 167 rushing yards per game (28th) and 5.4 rushing yards per attempt (32nd).
Zonovan Knight (4600) could get some big run this week with Michael Carter (Q). I mean Michael Carter is terrible on a yard per carry basis which is why Breece Hall quickly took over that back field. Last week, Zonovan Knight rushed 14 times for 69 yards for a nice 4.9 yards per carry and caught all 3 targets for another 34 yards. He is a cheap option to put into your lineups.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS:
Zay Jones played in Week 12 and Week 10 and in those two weeks he amassed 14 and 10 targets picking up 11 and 8 receptions for 145 and 68 yards. Priced at sub 5000 on DK that is 6x value on his 30.5 DKPs last week.
Parris Campbell is only (4600) and this would be good a leverage spot against Michael Pittman who will likely be shadowed by Trevon Diggs. I don’t think Diggs will be on him for all of his routes but for the large majority. Trevon Diggs covered Justin Jefferson in Week 11 and held him to 3 catches for 29 yards while in his coverage.
Christian Watson (5200) has been on fire over the last 3 weeks putting up 24, 21 and 35.7 DKPs and he has scored 1, 2 and 3 touchdowns over the last 3 weeks. His price is way too low this week for his production. Chicago has allowed 31, 27, 31, 35 and 49 points over the last 5 weeks and they rank 31st in pass defense so why not take a shot!
Players with OVER 7 targets average per game over the last 4 weeks from the NFL CheatSheet!
PRIZE PICK HIT RATES:
Here are the players with a HIT RATE over 70% for the early week NFL Cheatsheet.
OVERALL DVP + DVP TO QUARTERBACKS:
NFL CheatSheet has DVP for QB / RB / WR and TEs.
GPP STACK TABLE:
Here we can see the QB + WR1/WR2 and run back with WR1. You can change these to any position on the NFL cheatsheet and see the Stack Projections, Stack Value, Stack Ceiling and Stack Average. We also breakdown the cost of the cap space and amount allowed for the other players so you can decide if you want to go with a CHEAP STACK and fill in with studs or go with a PRICEY STACK and fill in with value picks.
SAME GAME PARLAY ANYONE?
I am obsessed with the same game parlays offered on DK. I made this tab just for building SGP's. In the screen shot below I was unable to get the bottom portion of players but this gives you an idea. We can review game logs and projections for all the players in the game to get a good idea of what we want to stack together.
Thursday Night Football - Same Game Parlay:
Rhamondre Stevenson should pop since there is no Damien Harris tonight and look at those receiving yards and targets. In order of recent weeks he has 9/76, 6/56, 3/10, 7/72 and 8/59 and you can get monster plus money on that prop tonight on DK.
Josh Allen - He has an elbow issue and New England plays slow and low scoring games so I am leaning on adding a leg of Josh Allen under his ALT passing yards of 329.5. You can see in recent game logs he has 253, 197, 330, 205 and 218. In close games he tends to run more so you can also look at a rushing yard prop OVER. He has 78, 7, 84, 86 and 49 rushing yards in recent games.
Stefon Diggs - Be careful with Diggs because New England will either push to shut down Josh Allen running or Stefon Diggs as a WR. Bill B. always trys to shut down the top guy so will it be Allen or Diggs?
Dawnson Knox/McKenzie - Both have really low receiving yardage props and you can get an old number that could hit with 1-2 catches.
Thank You & Good Luck, HAZE