NFL Fantasy Picks for Week 11 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m going to hit the highest total games with the best players to consider for your lineups. With NBA season in full swing I don’t have time to touch every game but I’ll do my best to hit you with the stats and plays for NFL this week!
GAME by GAME PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
DALLAS vs. DETROIT – Our Algo has: DALLAS 27 over DET 22
Keep in mind that does not take into account that Stafford is out for this game so I would look at something more around 27-17. Dallas should be able to easily win this game. DET ranks as the 20th rush defense and 23rd passing defense. They also give up the most FP to the RB position at 32.9 FPPG. 26th most points to the QB position at 24.7 and 22nd most points to the WR position at 37.9. Zeke (9000) seems high but should get a lot of kill the clock time in the second half easily putting him over 100 yards. Dak (6700) I don’t mind but how much will he need to throw in this game? Amari Cooper (7700) has been stellar this year but he is going to see shadow coverage from Darius Slay so I’m going to be underweight on him in my lineups. Michael Gallup (6500) has the best matchup vs. Rashaan Melvin and PFF has this as a+21% advantage for Gallup. Also consider Randall Copp (4300) as he has the 2nd best setup per PFF at +14%. Cobb is a great GPP play at his price tag. He has 16 targets in his last two games (8 per game). He is coming off a 25.6 point game where we caught 6 balls for 106 yards and a score.
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY – Our Algo has: TAMPA BAY 26 vs. NO 23
I DO NOT agree with the Algo score on this game because Tampa Bay has that one monster game that is throwing off the numbers. However, this game should have a shit ton of points scored! Tampa is exactly what you want in an OVER team because they are explosive, can air it out and don’t care about defense. What is even better is both teams have pretty solid run defenses with Saints 5th in rush yards allowed and Bucs 1st in rush yards allowed but both passing defenses are rough. Tampa Bay is giving up 31 points per game (32nd) and 299 passing yards per game (32nd). Saints are giving up 20.2 points per game (11th) and only 226 passing yards per game (10th) which is great but this week they are without shutdown corner Marcus Lattimore! Michael Thomas (9900) is expensive but has a +31% CB/WR matchup per PFF this week. Also consider Jared Cook (4400) as the Bucs are 31st in points to the TE at 19.9. Drew Brees (6700) is fair value and should have 300+ yards and a couple easy scores. You can stack this game and run it back with Mike Evans (7400) or Chris Godwin (7300) as both have plus matchups.
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA – Our Algo has: CAR 26 vs. ATL 21
CMC (10,500) will be chalky and high owned and everyone is aware that he is the modern day Marshall Faulk so if you can afford him then feel free to play him as his floor is 25 points each week. Also love D.J. Moore (5900) as ATL is dead last vs. WR-1 and giving up 41.9 fantasy points to the WR position. Also consider Curtis Samuel (5300). ATL is 32nd vs. WR-1 and 30th vs. WR-2. Samuel has put up 14, 16, 9 and 24 point games in his last 4 and Moore has put up 24, 20, 9 and 16. Solid! Brian Hill (4800) will be the high owned chalk play of the week since there is little competition for touches. CAR does not have a good rush defense as they are 32nd DVOA but 3rd in passing defense.
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE – Our Algo has BAL 31 vs. HOU 25
What a game this is going to be! Vegas opened this at 49 and has already jumped up to 51.5 with 92% of the tickets on the over! We have this at 56 points so this is definitely a game we have interest in! Lamar Jackson (7700) took a big price bump this week and Chris Prince from Rotogrinders hated it and said he won’t touch him. I disagree! This is about the safest play on the board. His rushing ability gives you a solid floor for GPP and cash games. He has put up 33, 29, 26 and 34 DK points. So CMC has a higher ceiling as he has hit 40+ but also has a lower floor but you are spending 10,500. I’d rather come down here to Lamar at 7,700 and have a floor of 25 and push 35 points. Lamar has rushed for at least 1 TD and 60 yards in each of the last 4 games. DeShawn Watson (6800) comes in lower owned at 900 cheaper and believe me he is going to watch to go nuts here because of all the Lamar Jackson hype! In terms of DVOA Houston has the 20th pass defense and 6th rush defense. Baltimore has the 8th rated passing defense and 28th rated rushing defense. Marquise Brown (5600) is cheap and Houston is giving up 41.5 points per game to the WR.
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA – Our Algo has SF 30 vs. ARI 19
There are a lot of people that are going to be on Kirk (5700) in this matchup but I would caution that play. San Fran has a great trio of corners and the #1 passing defense. They are only allowing 143 passing yards per game (1st). His salary is low enough but I don’t think he can get close to that monster game he had last week. I’m also off Kyler Murray (6100) due to the same reasons. If Emmanuel Sanders is out then I love some Deebo Samuel (4000). ARI is 29th vs. WR-1 and he will be the default WR-1. ARI also giving up 37.7 fantasy points to the WR position (20th) and 286.5 passing yards per game (31st). That also puts Jimmy Garoppolo (6700) in play for us. I like that stack of Jimmy Grapes and Deebo. Even with ARI giving up 126 rushing yards per game (24th) you can pick up one of those 49’er running backs.
NEW ENGLAND vs. PHILLY – Our Algo has NE 28 vs. PHI 21
I can’t understand the line in this game. NE -3.5? Anyways I’m going to be all over Patriots here. Let’s start with the NE side. Philly is allowing the 6th least amount of fantasy points to the RBs at 21 but they are allowing the 26th most points to the WR position at 39.2. They sit at 15th in DVOA vs. the pass. I really like Brady (6400) price down a few hundred bucks from the above QBs and pairing him with Julian Edelman (7600). If his price tag is to high then we can look at Mohammed Sanu (5100) or Phillip Dorsett (4200). Sanu is coming off a 14 target game where he caught 10 balls and had the bye week to build more chemistry with Tom Brady. I’ll have exposure to all NE WRs in my GPP builds this week. I don’t like anything on the Philly side. I mean NE is the 2nd rated pass defense (DVOA) and 14th rated rush defense. They are allowing the LEAST amount of points to the RB AND WR positions and 2nd least to the QB and 3rd least to the TE. If you want to get crazy for a GPP I’d look at Carson Wentz (5400) and Dallas Goedert (3200). They should have to throw a lot and Goedert is far enough down the line that he should have the best chance of getting open.
OAKLAND vs. CINCY – Our Algo has OAK 25 vs. CIN 17
Keep in mind this algo has season long stats and numbers and now we have a new QB so it does not account for those stats. I’d make this more 27-13. I have no faith in playing any Bengal WRs right now with Finley at QB. However, Joe Mixon (5500) coming off a 30 carry game and 47 carries in his last two weeks can be considered as they have shown they are going to lean on him with the rookie QB. I can’t stand Derek Carr so I’m not going to recommend him. Josh Jacobs (6900) is almost a lock and load this week. CIN is 31st in fantasy points to the RB position at 31.5, allowing a ridiculous 173 rushing yards per game (32nd) and they are even 31st vs. pass catching RBs. He has put up 19, 27, 10, 19 and 32 points in his last 5 games. He has been between 15 and 28 carries in those games and topped 120 yards in 3 of them. His targets are also picking up as he was from 0-1 and now he is between 2-5 per game. He is almost a lock for 100+ rushing yards and a score with a couple targets. That is 19-22 points and 3x value.
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