NFL “Daily Fantasy Breakdown” Week 14!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Happy Friday! Let’s dive into some NFL DFS that is coming up this weekend! If you are into sports betting our college hoops cheatsheet is on a 30-14 run over the last 2 days! We have limited games this week so let’s break them down!
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DAILY FANTASY STACKS:
One of the things I like about the NFL cheatsheet is the ease that you can sort out the QB + 2 pass catchers and run back with an opponent pass catcher and find the cost of the stack, projection of that stack, average points produced and the stack ceiling. I also have a column to the right that shows how much cap space the stack will cost and the average salary left over so you can quickly scroll through and decide if it’s a stars and scrubs kind of stack or not.
Vegas opened this game at a massive 53.5 total and Lions have a team implied total of 28 points so something we at least have to consider. Lions have scored 40, 25, 31 and 31 points over the last 4 games. MIN ranks 24th in total passing defense so we have some good stats lining up for us. Jared Goff (DK-5600/FD-7100) is cheap enough to crush value coming off 24.6 DKPs which is pushing the 5x value mark. To give you an idea of the “value” let’s compare him to Josh Allen (8300), Jalen Hurts (8100) and Patrick Mahomes (8000). For those guys to get 5x value they would have to put up 40+ DKPs. Do you feel more comfortable with one of those studs breaking the 40 DKP barrier or Jared Goff hitting 25-28 DKP? Paying up and not getting the value kills your GPP lineups so the guys you pay up for you need to be confident in. MIN is allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position at 27.0. Amon-Ra St Brown has been on fire with 37.6 DKP last week and 30.9 DKP the week prior. DJ Chark is super cheap and has 11 targets over the last two weeks and put up a 5 for 98 line last week. D’Andre Swift is finally healthy and has 14 targets over the last two weeks.
So, let’s look for a “less chalky” stack with a lower team total. Seahawks have a game total of only 43.5 but the Seahawks have a team implied total of 23.5 points. Seattle has scored 27, 34, 16 vs. Tampa, 31, 27 and 37 points over the last 6 games so they have potential to drop a 30 burger on the Panthers this week and no one would be shocked. Seattle is hurting for RB depth this week so it’s possible they lean on passing a little more but they still pass at a 59% clip which is 14th best in the NFL. Geno Smith (DK-6200/FD-7600) has 4 games in a row with 20+ DKPs and 28.0 and 24.3 in the last two giving us 4x value pushing 5x upside. What I LOVE about this is we know the two pass catchers that are likely to go off in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I debated going with KC but his pass catchers are so sporadic he is a hard QB to stack with confidence. DK has 30 and 20 DKP over the last two weeks and Lockett has 31 and 16. Last week was a perfect example where DK put up 30 DKP and Lockett 30.8 DKPs. DK has 23 targets over the last two weeks and Lockett has 19 targets.
D’ANDRE SWIFT (DK-5800/FD-7200)
I want to focus on some value plays that we can target this week. Swift is the 4th highest ALGO RB on the NFL Cheatsheet and by far the lowest price out of the top 10. Finally, we might get a run of a healthy Swift as he has 14 carries last week and 6 targets. He is great on sites like DK where you get the PPR bonus. Last week he put up 21.2 DKPs and his price only went up $200 in a game with one of the highest totals on the slate.
EZEKIEL ELLIOT / TONY POLLARD
Houston appears to be the easiest matchup for RBs if you look at season long points allowed but over the last 4 weeks they have moved to middle the pack. They are allowing 144 rushing yards per game and 1.2 rushing touchdowns so we have to consider these two. DAL is heavily favored in this game so the easiest path for the Cowboys lock down the win and not get anyone hurt is running the ball and killing the clock.
Today is Friday and Leonard Fournette was not spotted at practice so that means it’s highly likely he is not going to play this week. If Fournette is ruled out then Rachaad White is cheap play with 4x upside. Matchup is tough against San Francisco but White has been great in the passing game with 8 targets and 9 targets the last two weeks that combined for 15 receptions and 86 yards with a touchdown.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS:
AMON-RA ST BROWN
We discussed him above in the Lions stack but Amon-Ra is a great fill in WR if not stacking the Lions. He has the #2 DVP spot as MIN is allowing 40.1 DKPs to the WR position and that is an average of 15 grabs and over 200 yards. Looking at the NFL Cheatsheet the TARGETS TAB shows Amon-Ra is 4th in targets per game over the last 4 weeks at 10.3/game only behind Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and DaVante Adams.
Amari Cooper is a good GPP play this weekend because his ownership should tank after the small 8 DKP showing last week with Watson under center and the Browns being primarily a running team. However, Cooper did have 9 targets last week which was 300% more than any other pass catcher on his game. (Peoples-Jones 3, Bryant 1, Hunt 3 and all others <2). Does Cooper have upside to hit that 4x-5x that we need? YES! In Week 11 against Buffalo he went for 34.3 DKPs which is OVER 5x value. In that game he had 12 targets and caught 8 balls for 113 yard and 2 scores. CINCY is rolling right now after knocking off the Chiefs so if they jump out to a lead and force the Browns to throw Cooper could be sneaky at only 6200 on DK.
Greg Dulcich will act at a WR once again this week and has more upside than the average TE. Dulcich is only 3400 on DK and 5400 on FD. Last week he had 8 targets and caught 6 balls for 85 yards putting up 14.5 DKPs. Another grab and he could of broke the 100 yard mark for the bonus and if he caught a touchdown that is monster upside. KC is a good matchup as they will need to throw and they will need to put points on the board. If he had a 6/100-1 line that is around 25 DKPs which is 7.35x value and that is attainable!
DK METCALF/TYLER LOCKETT
As discussed in the Seattle stack above these two are the clear cut pass catchers and both have upside. DK is coming off a 30 DKP game which is over 4x his current price tag. He has 127 and 90 yards in the last two games and 8 and 15 targets in those two. Lockett is also coming off 30.8 DKPs last week where he caught 9 balls on 12 targets for 128 yards. Plus, Lockett has scored a touchdown in 5 STRAIGHT GAMES!
Slayton is cheap and has been around 3x in 3 of the last 4 games if you are looking for a cheap fill in WR. With Saquon Barkley Q the NYG might be forced to throw a bit more. Slayton last week had 6 catches for 90 yards and two weeks ago had 5 grabs on 10 targets for another 86 yards and 95 yards the week prior. He doesn’t have a touchdown in the last 3 weeks so he is due to score.
Nico Collins is a complete PUNT that has some upside. Looking at the TARGETS TAB again we see Nico Collins is 6th in targets per game over the last 4 weeks with 10, 9, 7 and 10 over the last 4. His price tag is around HALF what the guys above him are running on DK. No one wants to roster a Houston wide out but it’s not like Houston is going to be ahead in the game so they will likely be throwing the ball trying to play catchup. No Brandon Cooks this weekend. UPDATE: Nico Collins is Questionable to play with a foot injury so watch the lineup.
DEFENSE VS. POSITION CHART:
STACK TABLE W/ WR-1, WR-2 AND OPPONENT WR-1:
Here you can see various other stacks and sort it from 2 offensive weapons (WR/RB/TE) and one from the opposing team and it will change out the entire tables projections and stats. You can also sorty by average targets, targets per dollar, projection, average fantasy points, ceiling, ceiling value, etc. HINT: Love the Tyler Huntley stack as it is CHEAP!
Thank You & Good Luck, HAZE