NFL Week 6 Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
People were shocked when Mike Evans got shut down last week. In the article posted I wrote, “This week Marshon Lattimore will shadow cover Mike Evans giving Godwin the edge.” Two corners in the NFL Mike Evans struggles with and Lattimore is one of them. This week Alshon Jeffrey should be covered primarily by Xavier Rhodes (another shut down corner) and D.J. Chark may be shadow covered by Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore typically covers the teams #1 and right now that seems to be Chark but I don’t know if they will value him as a #1. Keep those two in mind when building lineups!
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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
This week I’m trying something new of going game by game, let me know if you prefer the old way of just picking players or the game by game approach!
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY:
CMC is never in a bad spot with the volume of 25-30 touches per game. He has been amazing this year. Tampa is #1 in rush defense but that just means CMC will catch 10 balls out of the back field. I’m likely off him this week with the matchup, ownership that he will garner and the volume he has been receiving. I do like CAR WRs as Tampa Bay ranks 31st vs. WR in terms of fantasy points allowed. Rams didn’t even try to run on Tampa and threw the ball 50ish times. Tampa also 31st in terms of giving points to the TE so look at Greg Olsen. Carolina is 29th in rush defense and 4th in passing defense this year. What jumps out at me is they are 5th vs. the WR-1 and 13th vs. WR-2 so we can look at Godwin as another solid play. Mike Evans struggles with two corners and the guy from Carolina is the other one so fade him one more week and maybe buy low if you are in a season long league. Tampa is typically Evans & Godwin as they don’t use the TE. I prefer Godwin of the two this week and next week I’ll look back at Mike Evans.
SEATTLE vs. CLEVELAND:
KEY STATS:
-Seattle is 4th best in rushing yards allowed (80 RY/G).
-Seattle is 26th in passing yards allowed (270.6 PY/G).
-Cleveland is 29th in rushing yards allowed (150.8).
-Cleveland is 7th passing yards allowed (206.4).
Wow San Fran really thumped the Brownies! I was all over San Fran at -5 as our algo had them winning by 7-8 points but that blowout wasn’t expected. You think people are ready to load up some Chris Carson this week after watching the 49’ers run for 254 yards on them? Yes please I will definitely take some Chris Carson. CLE is giving up 23rd most fantasy points to RBs and only the 7th most vs. WRs. Nick Chubb is getting so many carries he is bound to break a few big plays. He had him under 86.5 rushing yards vs. SF and he put up 87 – blah! Seattle is only allowing 80 RY/G and that is 4th best in the NFL right now. Cleveland should be able to air it out and Seattle should be able to run the ball. OBJ and Landry should be able to hit value and look at Ricky Seals-Jones at only 3300 as Sea is 29th vs. the TE.
HOUSTON vs. KANSAS CITY:
KEY STATS to attack:
-Houston is 25th in passing yards allowed per game (270).
-Kansas City is 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (155.8).
Houston is only allowing 95 RY/G but they are giving up the 23rd most fantasy points to the RB position. KC uses their RBs a ton in the passing game so this should be a big day for both offenses. Pringle could get some looks at only 3500 he may be worth a punt play if Mahomes is a go. Pringle may not see the field if Hill & Watkins are both fully healthy. This game has the highest total and will be chalky so I won’t spend any more time on it.
PHILLY vs. MINNY:
The only key stat that is jumping out is Philly passing defense as they are giving up 271 yards per game (ranked 27th). They also rank 20th vs. WR-1 and 11th vs. WR-2. The passing game for Minny is Thieland and Diggs with some Dalvin. Philly is #1 in rushing yards allowed per game allowing only 63. Minny at home is a beast of a defense as they are only allowing 88.2 RY/G (ranks 9th) and 204 PY/G (6th). Xavier should shadow cover Alshon taking him out of the game and Philly shouldn’t be able to run so if you are looking at this game I’d look at Cousins/Thieland, Cousins/Dalvin or Cousins/Diggs. Philly is also giving up 42.7 FP to the WR (28th).
NEW ORLEANS vs. JAX:
Saints defense has been really great so far this year allowing only 108 RY/G (16th) and 255 PY/G (19th). JAX has been decent but they are giving up 136.6 RY/G on the ground (25th) so that should lead to a lot of usage for Alvin Kamara who is priced up at 8k on DK. JAX is also 26th vs. the WR-1 but 6th vs. WR-2 so look at Michael Thomas again who is averaging a whopping 24.7 FPPG. D.J. Chark and Dede are the only Jax players I’m looking at but the problem is that we don’t know if Marshon Lattimore is going to shadow cover D.J. Chark or stay on his side? If he does shadow cover him then I like Dede. Our algo only has JAX at 21 or less points so not excited about this side of the ball.
CINCY vs. BALTIMORE:
KEY STATS to attack:
- Cincy is allowing 167.6 RY/G (31st)
- Baltimore allowing 280 PY/G (29th)
Load up the Ravens running game! Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and some Marquise Brown on the passing side. We have Baltimore as the highest scoring team in our ALGO at 31.1 points. They average 32.3 PPG and Cincy is giving up 27.2 on the year. Baltimore runs 72.6 plays per game which is the most in the NFL. We watched Lamar torch bad defenses early in the year and then struggle vs. good defenses and now he gets the 31st rated pass defense and 26th rated rush defense. Big game for Lamar Jackson and he will be locked into all my lineups! If you want to run back a game stack with a Bengal then look at Tyler Boyd. Baltimore has a leaky pass defense and Cincy should be playing catch up most of the game and Boyd could snap off another 10 catch game!
SAN FRAN vs. LA RAMS:
Not an exciting game for DFS as this should be low scoring. San Fran has a solid defense and the Rams were good but they have fallen off a cliff. Rams hold the 24th rated pass defense. Breida and Coleman are the man two runners and they are cheap this week! Breida is only 5100 and Tevin Coleman who had 16 carries last week is ONLY 4400! Rams are 20th in fantasy points to the RB position and I can’t pass up on that price tag.
ATLANTA vs. ARIZONA:
KEY STATS to attack:
- Both teams have terribly pass defenses: ARI is 27th and ATL is 30th.
- When I mean terrible I mean terrible! ARI is 29th vs. pass catching RBs, 29th vs. TE, 22nd vs. WR-1 and ATL is right there as they are 31st vs. WR-1, 32nd vs. WR-2 and 15th vs. TE.
Julio Jones should have a monster game, Love me some Austin Hooper as ARI is 32nd vs. the TE (23.6 FPPG). Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk should have solid games! Chase Edmonds only 4600 if David Johnson can’t go so just keep that in mind. Love the game stack here!
TENNESSEE vs. DENVER:
PASS – Algo has this at 38 points total. Derrick Henry is the only upside guy as DEN is 28th with fantasy points to the RB position and giving up 126 RY/G (ranks 22nd). No one else I want to consider right now.
DALLAS vs. JETS:
PASS – Algo has this < 40 points. If you want someone from the game look at Le’Veon Bell with Sam Darnold coming back as he is the check down king! DAL is 27th at giving fantasy points to RBs. If you want a cheap contrarian stack look at Sam Darnold (5100) with Bell (6400) and Jamison Crowder (only 4000). Crowder was getting 10-12 targets a game with Darnold in. If you are in a season long league grab him now on the cheap! Cooper and Gallup have great CB matchups but will they need to air this one out? Prefer Gallup as he is 1400 cheaper than Cooper so less risk but NYJ are 24th vs. WR-1 so pick your poison!
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN:
DETROIT vs. PACKERS:
KEY STATS to attack:
- Lions are giving up 280.8 passing yards per game (30th)
- Packers are giving up 138.2 rushing yards per game (26th)
DeVante Adams is questionable but if he is out then my word you have to play Aaron Jones at only 6500 (if you are playing the TH-MON slate). He had a record setting game and got a ton of passing down work. DET is 29th vs. fantasy points to RB position. MVS and Allison should get plenty of work if Adams is out. I like Kerryon Johnson on the other side as Packers are 30th vs. fantasy points to RB position and 26th in rushing yards allowed. Johnson could get 20-23 carries this game to keep that Packer offense off the field. We have this as a solid game in our algo with 50.1 total projected points so it should be a fun one to watch. I’m going to be watching this game in Orlando, FL sitting next to a pool with a beverage in hand!
TOP 3 PLAYER ALGO RANKS PER POSITION:
QUARTER BACKS:
1. Lamar Jackson – monster game coming vs. Cincy!
2. Matt Ryan – Facing a week passing defense and coming off a monster game he is 500 cheaper than Lamar if you need to drop down.
3. Patrick Mahomes – This guy is a stud, if the ankle doesn’t hinder him he is always top 3!
RUNNING BACKS:
1. Christian Mccaffrey – Volume and fantasy points will always have him in the top spot.
2. Le’Veon Bell – Great matchup and gets Sammy D back in the lineup who is check down sally!
3. Austin Ekeler / Dalvin Cook – Ekeler has Melvin in the lineup taking some carries away so his arrow is going down but Dalvin is catching balls and running so he is the true #3.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
1. Keenan Allen
2. Tyler Boyd
3. Michael Thomas
4. Christian Kirk
5. Amari Cooper
TIGHT ENDS:
1. Austin HOOPER Baby!
2. Mark Andrews
WR/CB MATCHUP CHART: I’ve followed the PFF WR/CB matchup chart for years. Take it as part of your research and not the only thing. I see people basing all their lineup decisions off this chart that is floating around. You have to understand that if a player is at a certain position 50% of the snaps and the CB is there 50% that doesn’t mean that he will always line up against that CB. That CB may only cover him 20-25% of the time. Where you can use the chart for value is looking at someone who plays 80%+ in the same spot matched up against a CB who plays 80%+ on that side of the field or that position. Too many people are putting faith in something that is random.
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