NFL Saturday Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Welcome to Week 16 everyone and the start of the NBA season! I’ve been hard at work putting in 6+ hours a day on the NBA sheet. I wanted to take a break and hit on some NFL games because I love the “research” aspect of fantasy. So let’s go ahead and dive in!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
GAME #1
Tampa Bay (-9.5) vs. Detroit
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened at -7.5 and moved to -9.5.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 49 and skyrocketed up to 54.
Our Model: We have Tampa Bay winning this game 34-25 with 59 total points. So we are close to the Vegas spread so prefer the game teased down and we like to go over the total.
QB Protection: Tampa is #2 in QB protection and DET is 28th in QB pressure so Brady will have all day to pick apart the defense. DET is 20th in QB protection and Tampa is 4th in QB pressure rate so expect some sacks for the Bucs defense this week.
Trenches Breakdown: Tampa has the 12th best O-Line facing the 31st D-Line so there will be running room for the Bucs RBs. DET is also 25th in allowing runs of 5-10 yards so they will give up some chunk plays. DET sits at 19th in it’s O-Line ranking and Tampa ranks 2th, 1st and 1st and in D-Line and then allowing explosive runs. This would point to an “unlikely” big day on the ground for Swift.
DFS PLAYERS:
Tampa Bay has been solid against the run with the #1 rush “D” and only allowing 77.8 RY per game so I will be lower than the field on D’Andre Swift. DET has been terrible defensively ranking dead last in the NFL and allowing a massive 137.3 rushing yards per game and 264.1 passing yards per game and those rank 29th and 27th. All of the Tampa Bay players are in play with a total of 54 and being a heavy favorite. Tom Brady is the 2nd priced QB at 6800 so we are looking for 21-28 DKP for value and over the last 5 games he has highs of 35 and 27 and lows of 15 and 16. He should toss for 300 and a couple TDs giving him a high floor. If you fade Tom Brady then I like taking a RB here. Tampa WILL SCORE points so get a piece of them in your lineups as there are only 3 games to choose from.
I don’t love any specific WR from Tampa since Tom Brady spreads it out so much. All 3 guys have 10-20 DKPs and NONE of them have broke 21 DK points since Chris Godwin did in Week 7 with 23.8. They all have high floors but low ceilings in this offense with so many weapons.
On the Lions side Marvin Jones Jr. is only 4900 and has been on fire with no Kenny Golladay. Marvin Jones Jr. has put up 30, 9 and 29 in the last 3 games and has led the team in targets with 13, 9, 12 and 13 over the last 4 weeks. T.J. Hockenson is only 4600 which shocked me on this small slate and he is second in targets with 4, 13, 9 and 8 over the last 4 weeks. With the exception of last week Hockenson has put up 10-17 DKPs in 4 straight weeks. Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu are GPP punt only options at 3700 and 3000. Usually one of those two will catch a few balls and rack up some yards but they have very low ceilings. If you can load up your favorite line I don’t mind mixing them into a flex spot as a punt in large fields. Definitely do not use them in cash. If Matthew Stafford can’t go I’m still playing Marvin Jones and Hockenson as Chase Daniel is an acceptable backup and a fun QB punt at 4900.
SCREEN SHOT FROM CHEATSHEET OF ITEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE:
GAME #2
Arizona (-5) over San Francisco
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened ‘Zona -3 and now -5.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 49 and still 49.
Our Model: We have Arizona winning a close game 25-23 and our projected total is really close to the Vegas line.
QB Protection: San Fran is 8th in QB protection and ARI is 11th in QB pressure. ARI is 7th in QB protection and SF is 25th in QB pressure. This is good for Kyler Murray and having some time in the pocket. SF is neutral.
Trenches Breakdown: There is an advantage for both defenses. SF has the 25th O-Line and ARI is 26th. SF has been solid at stopping explosive run plays as they rank 5th and 7th in that category, but it’s not like Drake is breaking off 50 yard runs every game. ARI does allow chunk plays of 5-10 yards aas they rank 27th in that category so there could be some chunk plays by Jeff Wilson Jr.
DFS PLAYERS:
ARI will have their work cut out for them as SF ranks 10th in total “D” and they are allowing the 7th least rushing yards per game and 4th least passing yards per game. SF ranks 5th vs. the WR-1 so if you are fading a DeAndre Hopkins play then I’d look at Chase Edmonds as he is 2nd on the team in targets over the last 4 weeks with 6, 5, 6 and 5. Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and KeeSean Johnson are seeing only 2-4 targets a game and should only be used in large field GPPs. DeAndre Hopkins should be able to avoid Richard Sherman the majority of the time as he runs 84% of routes on the left side and 61% of the time Witherspoon is on that side. Richard Sherman primarily stays on his side of the field for 84% of snaps. Hopkins has 11, 11, 14, 7, 10 and 11 targets over recent weeks. He is getting twice as many looks as any other ARI pass catcher.
Kyler Murray is a straight up stud with a monster ceiling and I expect he will be high owned after his big game last week. He put up 38.1 DKPs and that is 5x his current salary. I like Murray because he has a safe floor for cash games and over the last 7 weeks he has highs of 38, 31 and 42 DKPs. Kenyan Drake is cheap enough at 5200 to give you some wiggle room and has been decent as of late. He has put up 16, 14, 24, 16 and 14 before last week so basically hitting around 3x.
Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like he may be the primary back with Mostert done for the season. When we have seen Mostert go out it was Jeff Wilson that took the majority of snaps, carries and touches. With 12 targets over the last 3 games I’d also like to point out that ARI is 25th vs. pass catching RBs. Brandon Aiyuk is almost a lock for me right now with 30 TARGETS over the last 2 games and 3 straight games over 20 DKPS (22.3, 24.9 and 20.5). Don’t forget my punt TE from the article last week with Dan Arnold (3200) who has put up 8.4, 10.7 and 20.1 DKP over the last 3 weeks. The low 8.4 last week was still around 2.5x value and the 20 DKP is over 6x value.
GAME #3
Miami (-3) over Las Vegas
VEGAS SIDE: Line opened Miami +2 and now -3.
VEGAS TOTAL: Line opened at 48 and now at 47.5.
Our Model: We have a massive 57 points being scored in this game with Las Vegas winning 30-27. Now keep in mind our model does not account for Derek Carr possibly not playing so take this with a grain of salt.
QB Protection: Las Vegas side is a neutral as they are 9th in protection facing a team that is 9th in pressure. Miami is 21st in pass protection and Las Vegas is a horrible 30th in QB pressure so Tua will have time to throw.
Trenches Breakdown: No clear advantage on either side. Miami ranks 21st, 28th and 27th and facing a team that is 25th, 28th and 30th in Line, runs of 5-10 yards and runs of 10+ yards. Vegas is in the same spot ranking 17th, 20th and 22nd and facing a team that is 15th, 22nd and 14th. Nothing popping to me right now.
DFS PLAYERS:
Las Vegas gives up the 25th most rush yards per game at 125.8 and the 26th most passing yards per game at 259.6 so Miami should be able to move the ball. I’m sure that is leaning to the 5 point Vegas line move. Myles Gaskin was activated for this week but his role at this time is unknown. At 5300 he is worth a shot as his first game back last time he took 21 carries and 2 targets right out of the gate so not worried about his production. Mike Gesicki looks doubtful to return but if he does keep in mind that Tua loves targeting this guy! Gesicki had 23.5 and 23.8 DKP in back to back games. If he can’t go them Durham Smythe is a cheap punt at 2800 and put up 9 DKP last week.
Miami has the 5th best passing defense but they are 24th vs the run. Miami is also giving up a high 4.6 yards per carry while they are sticklers when the opponents get into the red zone allowing only a 56.4% TD rate which ranks 25th in the NFL. Darren Waller is a whopping 7000 and Miami ranks 27th vs. the TE. Waller put up 33 last week and then 14.5 and 48 DKP the prior two weeks so he has a high ceiling. Everyone else on the Raiders is CHEAP so I don’t mind them. Nelson Agholor is only 4500, Hunter Renfroe is 3300 and if Henry Ruggs can go he is 4000.
SCREEN SHOT FROM CHEATSHEET OF ITEMS DISCUSSED ABOVE:
BREAKDOWN OF MY FAVORITE PLAYERS:
QB – Kyler Murray, Tom Brady (GPP)
RB – Myles Gaskin, Jeff Wilson Jr., Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones (GPP).
WR – DeAndre Hopkins, Marvin Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Nelson Agholor (GPP)
TE – Darren Waller, Dan Arnold, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe (GPP), Jordan Reed
DEF BREAKDOWN:
Lions / Raiders – Will likely score 0 or negative points so don’t use them and at least find a way to get up to the 49’ers at 2700.
San Francisco (2700) – Should be easy to at least get to 2700 if you don’t want to spend up and prior to last week they had 8, 2 and 17 points.
Arizona (3300) – If you can afford a little bit more money I like ‘Zona this week and they have 10, 18, 2 and 8 over the last 4 weeks.
Tampa Bay (3800) – They are expensive for a D but playing a DET team that might be without Stafford. They have only put up 3, 9, 4 and 4 over the last 4 weeks so I would prefer them in GPP only. Low risk of them putting up 0 or negative so they are safe.
Miami (4000) – If you want to look at Tampa then you can afford the Dolphins for another 200 bucks. They have put up 9, 10, 14 and 14 over the last 4 weeks and that includes facing a touch KC team. They are the best bet for 3x value.
HOW I AM BUILDING MY SATURDAY LINES:
I’m starting with Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins as I want the best studs in my line. I’m going to Brandon Aiyuk as my WR-2 as he is getting a massive amount of targets and a top pass catching option. TE I know I won’t be able to afford Waller except for some GPP builds so I’m going down to Jordan Reed at 2900. I’m plugging in the Dolphins defense at 4K and then will pivot down if I need to tinker with another spot. My RBs I’m going down from Josh Jacobs and Swift to Jeff Wilson Jr. and Myles Gaskin at a respectable 5,300 and 5,000. That leaves you 10,300 to fill a WR-3 and FLEX spot. I’m running this line 10 times and mixing and matching the WR-3, FLEX and TE spots with the salaries left over.
Thanks for reading,
Haze