NFL DFS Picks for Sunday (December 22nd) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We wrote a separate breakdown for the Saturday 3 game slate so make sure to check it out. This is for Sunday only plays going game by game. We also hit on the Vegas action, line movements and the sports betting algo and our pick (if we like a side or total). I hope everyone is playing their season long championship game this week (if you made it) and have a Merry Christmas this year! 2020 will be great!
FANTASY TRIVIA: Do you know the 4 players who had the most targets in Week 15?
(Think about it, answer is at the bottom of the article…)
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN FOR SUNDAY:
ATLANTA 24 vs. JAX 18
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at ATL -7 and still -7. Total opened at 45.5 and has moved up slightly to 46.5. Sports betting algo has this game pegged as ATL -5. 90% of the tickets are on the Falcons and 86% on the over.
OUR BETTING PICK: Pass.
FANTASY PLAYS:
The main thing that jumps out here is that ATL can’t run as they are averaging only 81.4 RY per game (30th) but JAX can’t stop the run as they allow 140 RY per game (29th). This game is like putting a square peg in a round hole. Leonard Fournette (7200) is one option to target as ATL is the 13th rated rush defense DVOA but 19th vs. pass catching RBs and Fournette has 7, 6, 11 and 12 targets the last 4 weeks. DeVonta Freeman (6000) seems priced a little high and isn’t really exciting but if he can get 60 yards with a TD and a few catches he could get you 3x value. JAX has the 31st rated rush defense DVOA and they are allowing 140 rushing yards per game (29th). Julio Jones (8000) is where I’d rather stake my claim. JAC has been tougher on their pass defense but as we saw last week Julio is unguardable. Julio has 20 TARGETS last week with no Calvin Ridley on the field, give me one more week of that please! He went 13 catches for 124 yards and 2 TDs for just over 41 DKPs. Russell Gage (4400) is a very cheap option to put into a stack as JAC is 6th vs. WR-1 but falls all the way down to 21st vs. WR-2s and he had 6 targets last week. Austin Hooper (4400) is viable now that he has a game under his belt after coming back from injury and JAC is 31st vs. guarding the TE.
SAINTS 27 vs. TITANS 24
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Saints -1.5 and now -3 while the over slightly dropped from 51 down to 50.5. 73% of the tickets are on Saints and 88% on the over. Sports Betting algo has this as TEN -4.5 but we don’t agree with that.
OUR BETTING PICK: Saints -3
FANTASY PLAYS:
Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are setting records so how are we going to go against them? We aren’t! Saints are scoring 27 PPG (5th best) while TEN is 24.2 PPG for (11th best). Saints on defense allow 21.6 points and TEN 19.9 points, so pretty close. I think this game will be closer than people think as the Saints average 420 total yards at home but only 311 on the road and that is a 25% swing. TEN averages 130.6 RY per game (8th) best and the Saints are allowing the 4th least amount of RY at 90.8 per game. Saints average 264.6 PY per game (7th) and the Titans are allowing the 25th most passing yards per game at 258.1. Drew Brees (6900) + Michael Thomas (9300) will be popular and worthwhile this week. TEN is even horrible at covering the WR-1 as they rank 28th. Saints allowed the 26th most fantasy point to the WR position at 39.8 so you can look at guys like A.J. Brown (7000) or punt with Corey Davis (4000) as TEN will almost certainly be playing catchup in the second half. Last week A.J. Brown led the team with 13 targets and the next person was Corey Davis at only 6 targets. Derrick Henry (7700) is priced too high for me in this matchup. Alvin Kamara (7500) is also priced extremely high for his recent production of putting up only 14, 7, 12 and 19 DKPs. Michael Thomas setting the single season reception record is the main focus for the Saints, and yes Drew Brees putting up the passing touchdowns for his record.
BALTIMORE 31 vs. BROWNS 20
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Baltimore -7 and now -10, shocker, lol. Total went from 49.5 down to 48.5. 93% of the tickets are on BAL and 88% on the under. Sports betting algo has this game as BAL -9.
OUR BETTING PICK: Baltimore -10, also love them on a 10 point teaser.
FANTASY PLAYS:
I had some hopes for the Brownies this year but their coaching is awful and they already said he was going to be there next year so let’s just flush them down the toilet. Can this game be anything else? Browns are allowing 135.2 rushing yards per game (27th) and they have the 21st rated DVOA rush defense AND they are facing the #1 scoring offense at 33.7 PPG and the #1 rushing offense at 202.1 yards per game. Ravens are putting up 404 total yards per game on the road and 415 total yards per game at home. Wow! Baltimore only allowing 96.1 RY per game on defense (5th) and 218.1 PY per game (7th). Nick Chubb (6900) should have some success running but I don’t expect a big game from him since most of the pass catching work is done with Kareem Hunt (5500). Plan on CLE playing from behind so that puts Hunt, Landry and OBJ in play. Last week OBJ had 13 targets, Landry 8 and Hunt 9.
Lamar Jackson (8000) will never be priced high enough for his floor/ceiling combo. He has put up 37, 21, 26, 36, 33 and 34 DKPs in recent contents. In his last 9 games he has been over 33 DKP 5 times and every other game over 26 except one where he faced Buffalo and only put up 20.8 DKP. His price climbed from 7500 to 8000 and he still can easily hit 4x value. Mark Ingram (6800) has put up 24, 27 and 24 DKP in his last 5 contest if you take out the Buffalo and San Fran games. I prefer to stick with the rushing side but if you want to get crazy Marques Brown (5200) and Mark Andrews (5900) are getting the majority of the targets. BAL just doesn’t have to throw that often so their upside is limited.
DETROIT 21 vs. DENVER 20
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at DEN -6.5 and now -7. Total went from 38 to 38.5 and tickets are split on each side with 78% sitting on the over right now. Sports betting algo has this as DEN -3 to -3.5.
OUR BETTING PICK: Denver -7 and/or Over 38.5.
FANTASY PLAYS:
Denver is only allowing 20.3 PPG on defense (10th), 113 RY/G (20th) and 223.9 PY/G (10th). They also only allow 318 total yards at home. DET can’t run and they are down to Kenny Golladay (6500) and Danny Amendola (4900) for the WR options. If Denver take their #1 (Golladay) out with shadow coverage then Danny Amendola could get a shit ton of targets. Danny Amendola has 13 targets last week compared to only 7 of Golladay.
Drew Lock (5600) is a cheap viable GPP option this week. This guy is showing that he belongs in the NFL (even though I hate Denver because I live in KC, Go Chiefs!). DET has the 29th DVOA pass defense and allowing the 28th most fantasy points to the QB position at 23.2 and 28th most points to the WR position at 40.6. So give me some game stack with Courtland Sutton (6200) who has an amazing 10, 7, 5, 8 and 9 targets over the last 5 weeks. DaeSean Hamilton (3200) had 9 targets last week but only caught 2 of them, he would be sneaky if you want to differentiate yourself.
INDY 24 vs. CAR 17
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at IND -6.5 and is now -7. Total went from 46.5 down to 46. Sides are split and 82% of the tickets are on the under. Sports betting algo has this as IND -3.5 but that does not account for the rookie QB starting.
OUR BETTING PICK: IND -7
FANTASY PLAYS:
Will Grier (4300) is cheap enough for a punt but not exciting about running out a 3rd round QB in his first start vs. a tough defense. I think this is going to hurt D.J. Moore (6900) and CMC (10,100). If you do play Grier then you have to stack him with D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel. CAR is allowing the MOST fantasy points to the RB position, the 32nd rated rush defense DVOA AND allowing 140.2 rushing yards per game (30th) so we are looking at Marlon Mack (6200) or Nyheim Hines (4400). CAR is also 25th vs. covering the TE so Jack Doyle (4500) is another cheap option to use.
MIAMI 20 vs. CINCY 17
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at MIA -3 and now -1 while the total went from 46 to 47. 71% of the tickets are on MIA and 85% on the over. Sports betting algo has this as MIA -3.5 to -4.
OUR BETTING PICK: Pass.
FANTASY PLAYS:
This is the least exciting game to look at but I have some time so adding it in for everyone. We have Cincy who has the worst rated offense scoring only 15.1 PPG and Miami who is the 29th worst offense scoring only 17.2 PPG. CIN allows 158 rushing yards per game for dead last in the NFL and MIA is allowing 140.9 rushing yards per game which is second to last in the NFL, lol. Shitty game here! Joe Mixon (6600) has been on fire putting up 21.6, 30.6 and 17 DKP in his last 3 starts. Mixon also had 136 rushing yards last week vs. NE, 146 the week prior vs. CLE AND he has at least 3 catches each of the last 3 weeks for 20, 40 and 26 yards. In the last 7 weeks he only has 1 game below 17 DKPs and that was vs. a tough PIT team and he was 18 for 79, 0 TDs. Now he gets a soft rush defense let’s see what he can do!
DeVante Parker (6800) will be somewhat popular this week and CIN is 30th vs. WR-1 coverage. Parker has some monster recent games putting up 23, 5, 38, 15 and 24 DKPs. He has 4 TDs in his last 3 games and had a monster game vs. PHI catching 7 balls on 10 targets for 159 yards and 2 scores! If you want to game stack this run Mixon and then take it back with a Fitz/Parker stack on the other side.
NYGIANTS 22 vs. WASHINGTON 19
VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at WAS -3 and now -2.5 while the total went from 43 down to 42. We have 71% of the tickets on the NYG and 93% on the over. Sports betting algo has this as NYG -3.5.
OUR BETTING PICK: NYG +2.5, love on a 6 point teaser to +8.5.
FANTASY PLAYS:
This is a game of weak offenses as combined they average around 35 PPG between the two and they allow a ton of points. Combined they are allowing 52 PPG. WAS is one of the worst passing teams as they average the lowest amount of PY per game at 168.4 but they can run the ball fairly well. NYG have been back and forth with Eli and Jones so I won’t focus on their stats. Saquon Barkley (8300) is a great play this week facing the 24th rated rush defense DVOA and a team allowing the 25th most fantasy points to the RB position. He is coming off a 33.3 DKP game where he rushed 24 times for 112 yards and 2 TDs and even have 5 targets, 4 catches for another 31 yards. If you are looking for a WR to play I will note Sterling Shepard has out targeted Golden Tate the weeks they have been on the field together. Week 15 (11-4), Week 14 (7-5), Week 12 (9-7). Terry McLaurin (6200) should have success as NYG are 32nd vs. covering the WR-1 and allowing the 29th most fantasy points to the WR position. Adrian Peterson (5000) is cheap enough to use this week. He is coming off 18, 14 and 16 DKP games giving you a solid floor and around 3x upside.
FANTASY TRIVIA ANSWER: Do you know the 4 players who had the most targets in Week 15?
George Kittle – 17 targets
Anthony Miller – 15 targets
Allen Robinson – 14 targets
Tyler Higbee – 14 targets
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze