NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL is happening in 2020 and I couldn’t be happier about it. Living in KC and a long time Chiefs fan last year was an exciting time for us. Looking forward to another great year. We have been red hot in the MLB so let’s take a look at Week 1 plays. Keep in mind there were several changes from last year, no pre-season so there is going to be some variance for a few weeks.
JOSH JACOBS – Going up against a CAR rush defense that ranked dead last in 2019 and priced at only 6800. CAR gave up the 31st most points to the RB position at 30.7 per game. Game opened at pick and has moved to -3. Game script doesn’t really change the role for Jacobs because if they are down he will catch more balls out of the back field and if they are up he will pound the rock. Easy play this week for GPP or cash.
DALVIN COOK – On the higher side at 7900 on DK is Dalvin Cook who is going to get the 27th ranked rush defense from last year in the Packers. Packers were 4th best at defending pass catching RBs in 2019. If the Packers are anything close to last year and their 9th best passing defense we will see a lot of Cook this week. MIN is going to need to rush the ball and kill the clock because they boasting a horrible projected secondary this year and if they get down it would be hard for them to catch up. Cook for the win!
AUSTIN EKELER – I’m not a fan of Ekeler this year because I don’t think he can be a feature back and losing Phillip Rivers is going to hurt his value. For a Week 1 DFS play I’m willing to give Ekeler a shot. He gets CIN who ranked 28th in rush defense in 2019 and they were also 31st in covering pass catching RBs and that is his specialty.
MARK INGRAM – Sitting at only 5500 this week he is a good punt option. The worry is that Lamar Jackson might take some of his rushing touchdown upside away but Ingram was a beast last year. CLE had the 30th ranked rushing defense so if you are not playing Lamar Jackson then plug in Ingram and we could see 80+ rushing yards and a TD.
TODD GURLEY – I didn’t have Gurley in my article but I need to slide him in because it is killing me. Have you seen the depth chart for the Falcons? The RBs are Gurley and then Ito Smith and Brian Hill, there is NO ONE behind him that is decent. He is not in a committee and he should get the rock 17-20 times. SEA ranked 23rd in rushing defense last year. If you give Gurley 70-80 yards, a couple catches and a TD that is a great return on his low 6100 DK salary. My custom model put him in the flex spot in the optimal lineup.
EMMANUEL SANDERS – Everyone can write articles and talk about Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas and the studs but what value plays can you find that have a high ceiling? With no pre-season we don’t know what Sanders will do in New Orleans. This game has a 49.5 total in what could be a sneaky high scoring game. Michael Thomas will draw obvious coverage but Sanders could be a sneaky WR-2 on DK priced at 3300 less than Thomas.
DESEAN JACKSON – 4900 on DK just feels too cheap for a WR-1. WAS had the 27th rated pass defense last year but they were 9th vs. WR-1s. If you playing ERTZ then I’m fine fading Jackson. If you are NOT playing Ertz then I think you have to play Jackson. He is cheap and he will get guaranteed targets. I don’t worry about Whiteside or Greg Ward taking over as the #1 this is going to be the ERTZ and DeSean Jackson show.
D.K. METCALF – Whoever you consider the #2 here is in a good sport. ATL was 18th vs. WR-1 (which still isn’t great) but they were 30th vs. WR-2. ATL covered the TE position well last year and allowed the 6th fewest points. With a total of 49.0 in this game we need to look at Metcalf or Lockett. I don’t mind either of them as a play.
GEORGE KITTLE – Kittle is the #1 WR on his own team and is going up against ARI who had the 26th ranked pass defense in 2019. They were also 29th vs. the TE. Kittle is expensive but should pay off his price tag. ARI had the 6th best rush defense so if they are close to that this year SF will need to “air it out” to get some points. If ARI can somehow get a lead and let SF play catch up he could have a monster day.
JACK DOYLE – I’m excited for this Colts team this year. Phillip Rivers loved throwing to Antonio Gates. Now he has Jack Doyle as one of his weapons and no one is talking up Doyle. JAX should be terrible this year after letting go of Fournette. They were 31st in rush defense and 24th in pass defense in 2019. What jumps out at me is the 30th ranking vs. the TE position. Jack Doyle is only 3600 this week and a good punt TE play.
JIMMY GRAHAM – NO ONE is talking about Graham this year! His team was only the 21st passing offense and 25th offensive team in 2019 but they paid Graham ($16 million for 2 years I believe). Rumors are he is going to be more involved and also line up in the slot. DET was 24th vs. covering the TE. Priced at only 3800 that is dirt cheap punt pricing if you want to load up on other studs. If he catches a single touchdown that is almost 2x his salary on DK. Jack Doyle + Jimmy Graham in the TE/FLEX spot on DK will give you some fun lineups and tons of money to spend.
LAMAR JACKSON – This guy is a cheat code for fantasy. He is priced appropriately at 8100 on DK but I think 3x is his floor every week. He is facing a CLE team that was 30th in rush defense last year so Lamar or Mark Ingram are going nuts this week. Our model has BAL projected for 30 points. Lamar is a great cash game play and I don’t mind him for GPP if you can fit together a solid lineup.
RUSSELL WILSON – Priced at 1100 cheaper than Lamar he has a solid matchup vs. ATL who gave up the 26th most points to QBs. ATL also had the 21st ranked pass defense and they rank 30th vs. the WR-2. Pair Wilson with Metcalf or Lockett at a minimum for GPPs because it is unlikely another WR takes over.
TOM BRADY – He is only 6500 this week and loaded with weapons. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, Ronald Jones… Ok Ronald Jones was a joke but still they don’t have much of a running game so I expect (or at least hope) we see a bunch of short passes in the game. He only needs 300 yards to hit the bonus on DK.
LINEUP BUILDING FOR NFL:
STACKING: If you are new to NFL DFS then STACKING is key. Stacking is using players that are correlated together. For example, playing a QB with his WR-1 or WR-2 or even using a QB/WR1/WR2 stack. You can even run it back the WR/TE from the other side and hope for a shootout. The idea is that the quarterback will throw the touchdown to that player and then you get points for the QB tossing the TD (+4) and another 6 points for the player catching the TD so it’s almost “double dipping”. The ideal scenario is using something like Tom Brady / Chris Godwin / Michael Thomas and hope that game is a shootout. You can also mix in some TEs in the stack.
CHALK PLAYS – You will always hear people talk about ownership percentage and “chalk”. Chalk is someone that is an obvious play that 30%+ of the field is expected to play or at least a high percentage. You can eat the chalk or fade the chalk. Typically, GPP winning lineups that I have researched over the last 3 years will have CHALKY RBs so don’t be afraid to play a high owned RB in a plus matchup. The winning GPP lineups always have some crazy low owned WRs that go nuts and score 2-3 touchdowns. If you are going to be different do it in the WR spot.
Thanks for reading,