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NFL Week 1 - Hot Takes & Winning GPP Lineup Review.


NFL Week 1 “Hot Takes” from CheatSheetPros!

I wanted to look at the winning lineup in the tourney below because of an article I read around 10 am on Sunday. Someone had posted this great breakdown from an analytics perspective of winning GPP lineup construction. After taking some notes and looking at the winning lineup it stuck in my head. So the article started off with a very high percentage of GPP winning lineups had 2 RBs that were top 10 owned and chalky. The WRs were usually under 10% owned or at least 3 players on the roster were <10% projected ownership. A high percentage of the time the FLEX spot on DK was a Running Back and not a WR. The QB was usually the highest scoring QB on the slate. Also game stacks only made up around 20% of GPP wins but team stacks with the QB + 2 players made up 85-90% of winning lines. The QB+2 was usually WR and TE and not RBs.


NFL $2 Million Play-Action on DK - $3 Entry - $200,000 up top.


WINNING LINEUP:

Carson Wentz – 10.3% - 28 points

CMC – 18% - 45.9 points

Austin Ekeler – 12% - 39.4 points

Keenan Allen – 6.7% - 29.3 points

Sammy Watkins – 5.2% - 49.8 points

John Ross – 0.4% - 37.8 points

Evan Engram – 12.8% - 31.6 points

Marlon Mack – 4.2% - 28.4 points

LA Chargers – 8.2% - 2 points


Total Points – 292.22 winning $200,000 off a $3 entry by jessek2005.


Now the above lineup is impressive not only because it won $200,000 on a $3 ticket but because it fell into a lot of the parameters of the article. Two Chalk RBs – CMC and Ekeler they were touted all over so I can see that as chalky. 3 WRs under 10% ownership – YES, all 3 of his WRs were 6.7% owned and lower. RB in the Flex – YES, Marlon Mack fits the mold. Stack of QB + 2 – NO. This was an unusual lineup because there was no team stack and it was a naked QB. I have heard of the correlation of stacking a Team DEF with a RB as they are correlated. You see that here with Ekeler and LAC defense. Pro Football Focus was touting to stack Lamar Jackson & Mark Ingram for that same reason and man did that work out this week!


I will let you know the 2nd place lineup did a DAK & Gallup stack and also had 3 WRs under 10% owned. But he only won $100,000, lol.


GREAT PERFORMANCES SUNDAY: DK points 35+

Sammy Watkins – 49.8 DK points – Mahomes can make anyone great and he definitely got Watkins off to a hot start!

Christian McCaffrey – 45.90 DK points – Holy moly! 19 rushing attempts for 128 yards and 2 TDs and then 10 catches for 81 yards on 11 targets. Work horse!

Austin Ekeler – 39.4 DK points – Sorry Melvin but no one is missing you right now. 12 rushing attempts for 58 yards and a TD and then 6 catches for 96 yards and 2 TDs on 7 targets. Just solid! Ekeler and Allen were basically the entire passing game for Rivers.

DeSean Jackson – 38.4 DK points – 8 catches for 154 yards and 2 TDs. Welcome home!

John Ross – 37.8 DK points – 7 for 158 and 2 TDs on 12 targets.

Lamar Jackson – 36.56 DK points – Only 20 pass attempts but went 17/20 for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns. That production won’t continue as Baltimore is a run heavy team but very impressive.

Dak Prescott – 36.4 DK points – 25/32 for 405 and 4 TDs.


WORKHORSE RUNNING BACKS:

Derrick Henry – took 19 rushing attempts and another person didn’t have more than 3.

Nick Chubb – rushed for 17 times and there were only 3 other rushing attempts by 3 separate players.

Dalvin Cook – 21 rushing attempts – even though Mattison got 9 attempts Cook was the clear work horse.

Le’Veon Bell – 17 rushing attempts and Ty Montgomery only had 2.

CMC – 19 rushing attempts of the 20 non-QB rush attempts.

Fournette – Only 13 rushing attempts but there were only 16 in the game and the other 3 game from Armsted, Minshew and Dede.

Marlon Mack – 25 of the 30 rushing attempts.

David Johnson – 18 of the 20 non-QB rushing attempts.


SURPRISING RUNNING BACK SPLITS & Quick Thoughts:

Kerryon Johnson (16) vs. CJ Anderson (11) – C.J. Anderson was on the field a lot more than people expected in this game. Something to keep an eye on.

Zeke (13) vs. Tony Pollard (13) – Nothing to worry about here they paid Zeke so they are just easing him back into action. Can’t hurt the superstar in their Week 1 win.

Chris Carson (15) vs. Rashad Penny (6) – This isn’t huge but Penny got more carries and time on the field than I expected with all the Carson hype. Will continue to watch.

Damien Williams (13) vs. McCoy (10) – McCoy looked good in the KC system and this will likely be a 60/40 split. Williams did get the goal line carry and the majority of passing downs. Something to watch.

Todd Gurley (14) vs. M. Brown (11) – Brown got both TDs which was a little shocking but something to definitely keep an eye on as Henderson didn’t see much action but Brown looked great. Could this be another RBBC?

Mark Ingram (14) vs. Gus Edwards (17) vs. Justice Hill (7) – Not worried about this since they put up 59 points in a blowout win. Gus Edwards is the backup to Ingram and Hill is more of a passing down/3rd down RB. If you are cuffing Ingram grab Gus.


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Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

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