NFL DFS Picks WEEK 14 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving this year and if you are ready for some NFL Sunday then we will break down some solid plays. If you don’t follow us for NBA our Algo plays are smashing! Last night we had Jonas Val – 7.3x value, Jarrett Allen – 8.4x value, Jimmy Butler - 7.6x value, D.J. Augustin – 6.4x value, Tomas S. – 7.2x value!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
I’m going to open the game with our ALGO projected score and then hit on the players that are viable in the game. I’m not able to write up every game so I’m picking the best ones with some upside and then I’ll list the players I like with a brief breakdown of why.
BALTIMORE 29 vs. BUFFALO 21
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at BAL -7 and now down to BAL -5.5. Total opened at 44 and moved down to 43.5. The sports betting algo line is BAL -5.2 so this is spot on right now. 77% of the bets are on BAL and 78% on the over. We have this game projected to go over 43.5 scoring 49-50 total points. My preferred betting line here is BAL -5.5. BUF is a solid team and they have won 4 of their last 5 games beating DAL, DEN, MIA and WAS and losing to CLE by 3. BAL is an elite team right now beating a tough SF defensive team by 3, thumping the Rams 45-6, Houston 41-7, CIN 49-13 and Pats 37-20. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game in their last 7 games and that was against solid offenses. If you play season long I love BAL defense the rest of the year if you can get them.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Both of these defenses are solid! BAL allowing only 18.2 points per game (5th) and BUF allowing 15.7 (3rd), defensive yards allowed the teams are 323 and 300 for 9th and 3rd AND rushing yards allowed is 95 and 104 for 6th and 13th. So on the offensive side of the ball we have the Ravens who are #1 in points per game at 33.8, #2 in yards per game at 420.8 and #1 in rushing yards per game at 207.8 facing the Bills who are 19th in points per game at 21.4, 17th in yards per game at 353 and 5th in rushing yards per game at 137.5. The thing that jumps out at me is both teams are top 5 in rushing yards per game but BAL is WAY AHEAD at 207.8 vs. 137.9.
Lamar Jackson (7400) is the easiest play and has the safest floor. He has 7 games in a row of 26-36 DK points. We only need 3x for cash games and that is 7.4 x 3 = 22.2 points and he is smashing that. We are looking for 4x and up for GPP and that is 7.4 x 4 = 29.6 points. Yes Buffalo is a good defensive but he put up 28.6 vs. NE and 26.3 v. San Fran. Easy Pick! Josh Allen (6200) is also a GPP consideration that should be much lower owned. He is 20-33 points in his last 4 and put up 20 vs. DEN giving us a good floor but I think there is more downside to Allen. John Brown I’m off of this week as he is going to see a lot of Marcus Peters. PFF has the WR/CB matchup as -17%, -14% and -10% for the 3 WRs for Buffalo. So Devin Singletary (5700) will have to make it happen on the ground if they are going to stay in this game. BAL has the 3rd best pass defense (DVOA) and 24th rated rush defense. Singletary is coming off 19 and 15.4 DKP games. He faced a tough DEN team and carried the ball 21 times for 106 yards and 2 TDs. He even had 3 for 38 in the air with a TD vs. DAL last week.
WASHINGTON 17 vs. GREEN BAY 25
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at WAS +14.5 and now down to +13. Total opened at 42 and now down to 41.5. Sports betting algo line is Packers -9.5. If I was going to bet this game and I will never bet on Haskins you have to take WAS +13 or more points. Usually the sports betting algo line is high so Packers -10 is a fair line but Vegas is taking advantage of the public perception here putting this at 14.5 and you can see that as the sharp bettors have taken this down to +13 already.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Washington on the surface looks terrible as they are only averaging 99.4 rushing yards per game. However, they are coming off 248 rushing yards last week and 129.3 rush yards per game over the last 3 games. Packers are allowing the 25th most rushing yards per game at 123 plus their rush defensive is 28th (DVOA). So we are going to look at Derrius Guice (4900) and Adrian Peterson (4000) since they are facing the team giving up the 27th most fantasy points to the RB position. I don’t like any WRs as Packers are 9th best vs. fantasy points to WRs. I will warn people that are going with Guice as he is a boom or bust player. He is only getting around 10 touches and 2 targets per game. Last week he just broke off a couple huge runs to put him at 129 yards. Adrian Peterson is still getting the majority of touches and I would look at this as a 55% / 45% split between the two. GPP play both of them in different lineups.
Packers average 10 more points per game at 24.1 (11th). They have a massive difference at home vs. road. On the road they average only 271 yards per game and at home 409 yards. They also average 30 more rushing yards per game at home and almost 100 more passing yards per game. So we can look at Aaron Rodgers (6800) and Aaron Jones (6700). DeVante Adams (8000) is priced too high for me as WAS is 6th best vs. WR-1s but if you want to use him I can’t argue it as he is on a 3 game run of 24.4, 19.3 and 21.8 DK points with 32 targets across those 3 games and 20 catches for over 200 yards and 3 TDs. If WAS can stay in this game and make it close Jimmy Graham (3600) might be sneaky as WAS is 31st vs. the TE position. Another sneaky punt is Jamaal Williams (4800). He came up on my radar last week as I have been testing some custom projections and he kept coming up. He has 11, 15, 6, 17 and 18 points in his recent games which is good value for a low priced play.
CINCY 16 vs. CLEVELAND 22
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at CIN +10.5 and now down to +8.5. Total opened at 43 and now down to 40.5. We have this horrible game scoring 38ish points going under so nothing exciting here. 83% of the tickets are on the under and 58% on Cincy spread.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
The main focus in this game is rushing defense for each team. CIN is allowing a whopping 157.6 rushing yards per game (32nd) and CLE is allowing 124 (26th). Both teams are fairly decent for pass defense and allowing <250 PY/G. DVOA rush defenses put CLE at 22nd and CIN at 25th. Focus on Nick Chubb (8000) and Kareem Hunt (6600) as CIN is also giving up the 26th most fantasy points to the RB position at 24 PPG. Joe Mixon (5800) is also a decent GPP option coming off 17, 8, 17, 20 and 18 DKP games. He is getting all the carries at 19, 18, 15 and 30 in the last 4 games. Hunt is a solid floor player with 17, 13, 12 and 14 DKPs this year. He is getting 6-8 carries and around 5 targets per game.
OTHER PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
Austin Ekeler (6300) – Facing a team giving up the 25th most points to the RB position and they are 25th vs. pass catching RBs.
Zach Pascal (5500) – Facing a team giving up the most fantasy points to the WR position and no T.Y. Hilton. TB is the 2nd hardest team to rush against but 31st to pass against.
Patrick Laird (4100) – He popped up on my radar about 3 weeks ago with a massive run that caught my eye. Now he is the default top RB for a horrible Miami team. He has 16.8, 2 and 11.8 DKP in his last 3. He is a cheap punt option.
DeVante Parker (6900) – Everyone saw last week so he will be chalky. NYJ are 22nd in fantasy points to the WR. They are 24th vs. WR-1s and allowing the 23rd most passing yards per game.
Alexander Mattison (4500) – Will be the chalk play of the day if Dalvin can’t go. DET is giving up the 30th most fantasy points to the RB position, 30th vs. pass catching RBs and allowing the 23rd most rushing yards per game. Dalvin is a whopping 9500 and limited so I’m likely going to shy away but I think Mattison might even get enough run to return value with Dalvin sore.
Kenny Golladay (6700) & Marvin Jones (5400) – Both are options vs. the team giving up the 27th most fantasy points to the WR position, 16th rated pass defense (DVOA) and 25th vs. WR-1 and 17th vs. WR-2. David Blough didn’t look bad last week and made some solid throws!
D.J. Moore (7000) – ATL is 26th in FP to the WR and have the 29th DVOA pass defense. Moore has been a STUD! He is coming off 19, 34, 18, 24 and 20 DKP games. That is 3x up to 5x value! Yes please!
BONUS CONTENT in this article only!
Here is the DVP for each team per position and what they are allowing. So you can see Arizona is giving up the MOST points to opposing QBs and TEs, etc. This is directly from our weekly CheatSheet!
Thursday Night Football - Showdown Breakdown from our CheatSheet! We posted the Showdown Article in our Facebook group and we like Anthony Miller tonight!
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