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NFL Week 3 DFS Breakdown & Betting Picks!


NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

NFL Week 3 is already here! Last week was filled with injuries and star players dropping like flies. For people that have followed me for awhile you know I’m from KC so that KC game had me on the edge of my seat! I’ve had a very busy week with my son playing 3 baseball games in 3 days. I’ve set aside some time to dig into my week 3 article this morning so let’s get started!

THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL:

This game has the 31st and 32nd rated pass defense DVOA on the year and two QBs that are not afraid to sling it around. If you are betting I lean to JAX -2.5 or -3 and the over 47.5. I’m likely going to parlay the two just for something to watch. JAX is 31st vs. TE this year so Mike Gesicki is one of my focal points for DFS. He is also coming off a massive 30 DK points game. I don’t mind either QB but lean to Minshew since I have them winning this game by almost 10 points in our custom model. Pair your QB with a WR or two. If DJ Chark doesn’t go tonight then Keelan Cole is the guy I’m looking at who has put up 16 and 18 DK points over the last two weeks. I also don’t mind Shenault who has put up 14 and 10 DK points. This game should feature a lot of passing and could be a sneaky high scoring game as the Vegas line opened at 45 and has already moved to 47.5.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - LAS VEGAS 33 vs. NEW ENGLAND 25 –

BETTING THOUGHTS: The custom model on this game is skewed with only two games and the one large outburst by LV. I think NE wins this game at home but I’d lean to LV +6.5 as it should be fairly close. I put this on here so if you look at our custom models and projected scores on the cheat sheet you get an idea of how I interpret them.

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

CAM NEWTON – His rushing upside gives us a huge edge on DK. He has put up 25.7 and 38.6 DK points in the last two weeks and priced at only 6700. Cam has a safe floor for cash games and upside for GPP. LV has the 28th rated rushing defense DVOA so it should be easy pick’ens for Cam.

JULIAN EDELMAN – Massive week last week with 28.9 DK points and he will be the highest targeted WR on the team.

DARREN WALLER – He put up 31.3 DK points in a massive game last week. He is the best receiver for Oakland right now.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - BUFFALO 26 vs. RAMS 25

BETTING THOUGHTS: I like Rams +2.5 or +3 this week. We have several points being scored in this game which is slightly skewed at our projected 51.2 points but the total opened at46.5 and has moved to 48 so public is also leaning on an over play.

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

STEFON DIGGS – Buffalo can’t run as they rank 29th in rushing “O” but the pass is working as they are 3rd in passing “O”. Diggs has been a monster putting up 17 and 32 DK points. He will get a tougher pass “D” this weekend but the target volume is too much to pass up.

JOHN BROWN – Huge discount off Diggs if you want to pivot down and has put up 19 and 18.2 DK points across two weeks. No TE for Buffalo is providing any value so it’s either Diggs or John Brown.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - TITANS 27 vs. VIKINS 28

BETTING THOUGHTS: With only two games the model doesn’t have enough info to properly evaluate each team so I recommend taking it with a grain of slate until we get 4-5 weeks in. I love Titans -2.5 this week. Vikes are struggling this year as they can’t pass (30th passing “O”) and their defense is suspect. They rank 23rd in rush “D” and 19th in pass “D”. TEN should be able to score at will. Take Titans!

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

RYAN TANNEHILL – Priced at less than 6000 on DK he needs to be in the GPP player pool after his game last week. He has 19.4 and 26.8 DK points in two weeks and should be able to tear apart these corners. If you don’t play Derrick Henry then roll with a Tannehill stack.

COREY DAVIS / JONNU SMITH – If A.J. Brown doesn’t go this week then stack these two guys with Tannehill. Davis has 20 and 13 DK points this year and Smith has 14 and then a 24.4 outburst last week with no AJ Brown.

DERRICK HENRY – I don’t mind playing Henry but at 7800 and limited PPR upside I think he is too expensive.

DALVIN COOK – MIN ranks 30th in passing “O” and 4th in rushing “O” and they are facing the 22nd rated rush “D”. Dalvin has 21.8 and 17.1 Dk points in two weeks and he his cheaper than Derrick Henry. He is the focal point of this offense.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - ATLANTA FALCONS 29 vs. CHICAGO BEARS 26

BETTING THOUGHTS: Can the Bears score 26 points? I know the Falcons will light up the score board as they have been on fire putting up 32 points per game (5th best) and the are playing at home on the turf where they are a fast break team. Lay the points with the Falcons.

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

CALVIN RIDLEY – I don’t know if Julio is going to play this week or not but Ridley is a safe play putting up 37 and 33 DK points in two weeks. He is one of the best WR plays on the board and his volume is locked in. CHI ranks 2nd vs. WR-1, 4th vs. WR-2 and then 22nd vs. WR-3 so that tells me Russell Gage could be a sneaky GPP play at 5100 on DK.

JIMMY GRAHAM – Sneaky play at only 3400. If CHI is down 10+ points and playing catch up they will be throwing a lot and ATL ranks 26th vs. the TE. Graham loves playing on the turf as he spent most of his early years in New Orleans in the dome. If he catches a TD that is 2x his salary. Good punt play.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - DETROIT 21 vs. CARDINALS 27

BETTING THOUGHTS: Love Love Love the Cardinals in this matchup! Lay the points!

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

KYLER MURRAY – My favorite QB on the slate this week. He has 27 and 33 DK points across his first two games. He should be able to carve up the 30th ranked defense DVOA. DET is 32nd in rush “D” and 24th in pass “D”.

DEANDRE HOPKINS – With 32 and 21 DK points he has the safest floor of any WR this week. Hopkins is expensive at 7900 on DK but we have him for 10-12 targets, 7-8 catches and around 100 yards an a TD.

KENYAN DRAKE – He has a solid 15 and 12 Dk points across two weeks but has a plus matchup vs. this 32nd rated rush defense. If he can break 100 rushing yards and grab a TD he could return big value at only 6000.

CUSTOM MODEL SCORE: - DALLAS 29 vs. SEATTLE 36

BETTING THOUGHTS: OVER! Look how many points are projected here! Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th “D”. That’s a perfect setup for an over!

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

EZEKIEL ELLIOT – Expensive but you are paying for a safe floor. I love the pick for cash games and I think there is upside for GPPs. Zeke has 28 and 23 DK points so far and should be 25+ this week.

AMARI COOPER – 18 and 19 DK points in his first two weeks is good for pushing 3x value. SEA ranks 31st vs. the WR-1. Stack him with Dak in GPPs.

DALTON SCHULTZ – He lead the team in targets last week with 10! He caught 9 of them for 88 yards and a TD. He is only 4500 on DK and worth a dart. For GPP I like Dak / Cooper / Schultz stacked up!

RUSSELL WILSON – 5th best “O” and no “D”. Wilson continues to rack up fantasy points putting up 34.8 and 34.4 in only two weeks. We have this game projected at 65 points so grab some shares of someone in this game!

CHRIS CARSON – Inexpensive piece of this game and has put up 25 and 20 DK points in two weeks.

DK METCALF / TYLER LOCKETT – NO ONE ELSE is catching many balls in this offense! These two guys are putting up solid games each week. There isn’t a week where they are both going to give you a dud so I like using AT LEAST ONE of them each week. I don’t mind a Wilson / Metcalf / Lockett stack. Both of these guys have put up 17+ DK points in week 1 and week 2 and they are only 6500 and 6400. Easy play for cash games and upside for GPP!

ONE OFF PLAYERS:

MILES SANDERS – This guy could explode in this game. CIN has the 25th rated rushing “D” and they are 30th vs. passing catching RBs. That is all Miles Sanders and he is only 6400 on DK and coming off a 21.1 DK point week. Love some Miles Sanders! This should be the Sanders and Ertz show. ZACH ERTZ / DALLS GOEDERT will be heavily involved in this passing game and we have them with 4-5+ catches EACH.

SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL:

CUSTOM MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: - - PACKERS 36 vs. SAINTS 28 - -

BETTING THOUGHTS: Love it! Packers baby! They are the #1 total “O” and #1 rushing “O”. They are struggling on the defensive side of the ball ranking 29th in total “D”. Passing “D” ranks a solid 13th but the 30th rated rushing “D” is worrisome. With Saints banged up and likely no Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders on the wrong side of 30 there is only Alvin Kamara that I’m worried about. Line opened at +6.5 and is now +3.5. I’m taking Packers +3.5 all day!

DFS PICKS FOR GAME:

ALVIN KAMARA – Captain play and a stud! He has 24 and 38 DK points in two weeks and GB has the 30th rated rush defense and they are 24 vs. pass catching RBs. There will be lots of volume for him in this game.

AARON JONES – Has to be in your showdown lineup coming off his 48.6 DK point game last week. He has a tougher matchup vs. the Saints and the 9th rated rushing “D” but Saints are 26th vs. pass catching RBs and Jones is one of the best!

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:

3 Team Specialty Teaser Picks (pick your favorite 3 but these are what I like):

COLTS -10.5 taking this down to -0.5 or “pick” basically. NYJ are horrible and they can’t score ranking 31st in points per game. Indy @ Home should easily win the game and on a teaser you don’t have to worry about laying double digit points.

ARIZONA (-6 teasing to +3) – I like this game at -6 and love it at +3. ARI @ HOME against the 30th rated “D” and Kyler Murray is having a great start to the 2020 Season. ‘Zona could easily hang 30 points in this game.

DALLAS/SEATTLE OVER (55.5 teased to 45.5) – Seattle has the 5th best “O” and 27th rated “D”. Teams rank 8th and 2nd in points per game and 25th and 21st in points allowed per game. Both teams have prolific offenses packed with play makers. Over 55.5 might be steep but teasing it down to 45.5 feels too easy!

TAMPA BAY (-6 TO +3) – Tampa travels to Denver where they are banged up and rank only 30th in points per game. Tom Brady should get an easy win in this contest. Our custom model has this game with the Bucs putting up 30 and Denver in the 18 point range. I don’t mind adding it to a teaser but prefer it as a straight bet.

ATLANTA / BEARS OVER (47.5 teased to 37.5) – ATL on the turf is ridiculous and they are holding the 8th best “O” right now with the 25th worst “D”. Perfect storm for an “OVER” play. We just need the BEARS to score some points. Falcons are 5th in points per game and 32nd in points allowed per game. OVER!

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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