NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL finally had some COVID positive results so we will see what happens with a couple games this week. I was glad to see my Chiefs hammer the Ravens this week in primetime. Last week was a solid week as we were able to pivot over to Kupp and Boyd due to WR/CB matchups and they both exploded. NFL betting continue to be hot! On the Week 4 NFL Cheatsheet we add in pass defense vs. SHORT & vs. DEEP passes!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
ALVIN KAMARA – Saints travel to the Lions. Our custom model has them dropping 31.1 points at Detroit. Saints are 3rd in total “O” and 7th in total “D”. DET ranks 24th in total “D”, 29th in rushing “D” and they are 25th vs. SHORT PASSES. Kamara should have a solid game even with Michael Thomas nursing an injury and possibly returning. He has put up 24, 38 and 47 DK points in the first three weeks of the season.
MIKE DAVIS – Panthers will play at home facing the Cardinals this week. ARI “D” has been decent ranking 12th but they are 27th vs. the short pass and 21st vs. pass catching RBs. That arrow points directly to Mike Davis who has 16 and 23 DK points in the last two weeks and priced at only 5700.
JAMES ROBINSON – Another cheap RB we can look at this week priced at only 6500. He has put up a solid 24 and 31 DK points in the last two weeks. These two teams have the 29th and 25th ranked defenses so there should be a lot of points scored. I mean the Vegas total opened at 45.5 and has already moved to 49.
NICK CHUBB – If CLE has a shot at beating DAL they need to slow down that “O” of the Cowboys that ranks 6th overall. CLE should pound Chubb and eat clock and try to keep the scoring down. DAL is #1 in plays per game and FD per game. CLE is rushing the ball a ton of Chubb is their goal line hammer. CLE is rushing for the 3rd most yards per game at 170.3 and DAL is allowing 127.7 yards per game (23rd). Chubb could push 100+ yards and 1-2 TDs. Chubb has 29 and 27 points in his last two games which is around 4x value on his current salary on DK.
DALVIN COOK – I was shocked to see his price tag this week at only 7600. He has put up 22, 17 and 30 DK points in the last 3 weeks and comes into a fantastic matchup vs. the Texans. MIN is 6th in rushing “O” and putting up the 8th most rush yards per game at 146.7 and they are facing a Texans team giving up the MOST RUSH YARDS PER GAME at 188.3 (32nd). We will see plenty of Cook this week.
RYAN FITZPATRICK – Priced at a low 5400 on DK he has a great matchup vs. SEA and their 29th ranked pass defense. They are also dead last in the league vs. covering the deep ball. FITZ has 27 and 25 DK points the last two weeks which is around 5x his salary! SEA will light up the scoreboard as they hold the #2 “O” right now in the league and MIA will likely be playing catchup the entire second half. Shootout!
JOSH ALLEN – He is pushing 5x his salary every week. He is priced at only 7300 on DK and has put up no less than 33.2 DK points in the first 3 weeks which a high of 37.5. He gets to face the LV Raiders who have the 32nd rated RUSH DEFENSE. Vegas is giving up 163.7 rushing yards per game. Allen should not have a problem putting up points in this matchup.
WIDE RECEIVERS – CB/WR MATCHUP BREAKDOWN:
It is hard to look at a WR and determine if we like him for the week unless you understand the game theory and the CB matchup. Will the other team shadow the WR? What CB is covering him? Does that CB play only on one side of the field or do they travel and cover the #1? These are things to look at each week. Last week A.J. Green had a tough CB matchup and so we funneled all our exposure to Tyler Boyd and he exploded. Same with Robert Woods and going to Cooper Kupp. Two solid plays! So for each week I’m going to look at a few solid WR/CB matchups for the WR plays.
STEFON DIGGS – He has a plus matchup vs. any of the CBs for the LV Raiders and he is the most targeted WR on the team. John Brown has a tougher matchup so this should give Diggs a few extra targets. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have 100 yards and 5-6 receptions. He looks good this year and we have BUF scoring 30 points in our custom model so we want some exposure to the WR #1 for that team.
TYLER BOYD – He plays 80% of his snaps in the slot and D.J. Hayden covers the slot 94% of the time for JAX and he is the worst rated cover corner giving Boyd a +48% matchup per PFF.
A.J. GREEN – He also has a +28% matchup this week per PFF and he leads the league in Air Yards. CIN has a horrible O-Line and can’t run ranking 31st in rushing “O” so look for plenty of pass attempts from Burrow running for his life. JAX has the 32nd rated pass “D” and they are 27th and 28th in short and deep passes. A.J. Green has only put up 10, 6 and 9 points so hopefully he will be lower owned but his targets and volume has been there. This is the breakout week!
KENNY GOLLADAY – DET is going to have to put up some points to stay in this game vs. the Saints. Saints rush “D” ranks 6th and is solid allowing the 6th least amount of rush yards per game. That leads us to the passing game where the Saints slide back to the 21st pass “D”. Lattimore is the best CB and he is giving up an 83% catch rate this year so he is hardly from a shut down corner. Golladay is only 6000 on DK and should push 7-10 targets in a game where they should be able to put up 21+ points.
TYREEK HILL – He is only 6900 on DK and he is the #1 WR on the #1 passing “O” in the league. He has 16, 22 and 21 DK points the last 3 weeks, he is playing at home and he has a +34% matchup per PFF this week. He moves all over but 56% of the time lining up in the slot. Both teams should be able to run the ball but Hill is always there for that “big play”. NE is dead last vs. WR-1 and 28th vs. the deep ball. Tyreek Hill big game???
COOPER KUPP – Robert Woods is a solid WR but he should get the shadow coverage by Bradberry this week. Bradberry is only targeted in 18% of routes which is the lowest on his team and he is by far the best CB for the NYG. He is allowing a low 42% catch rate in his coverage. This should funnel more targets to Kupp who plays 61% of the time out of the slot and Darnay Holmes covers the slot 88% of the time and has a horrible 32.5 grade on PFF leading to a +73% advantage for Kupp.
HUNTER RENFROE – He is a dirt cheap punt play this week at 4600. Waller is the #1 pass catcher but Renfroe is a good football player. He is playing 65% of the time in the slot and Taron Johnson covers the slot 95% of the time and he is giving up an 82% catch rate and the most targeted cover corner on his team. This is a +31% advantage for Renfroe. The other two corners are solid for BUF so Renfroe and Waller should have plenty of targets.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON – MIN should run the ball plenty in this matchup but I like Jefferson as a punt play priced at only 5200 to see if he can build on his production last week of 175 receiving yards. All 3 corner backs for HOU are struggling. Jefferson is 6’3” 192lbs and runs a 4.43 40.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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