QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Hope everyone is enjoying the weekly NFL breakdown articles as I spend a ton of time trying to get good information for you and provide tips and tricks from my early week process. I had a piece of skin cancer removed this week so half of my face is bandaged up otherwise I was going to do a YouTube video! Either way let's jump back in and discuss some DFS, Player Props, Prize Picks and get you started on some same game parlay action to use those DK boosts and free bets!
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On the website under "Sports Picks" we have (3) NFL Favorite Plays, (1) Secondary NFL Play and my favorite 6.5 point teaser legs along with (4) Favorite College Football Picks & (3) College Football secondary liens! Try the weekend premium pass for only $11.99 if you are not already a member!
DAILY FANTASY PLAYS & STACKS:
Miami/Buffalo has a total that opened at 50 and shot up to 54 and will likely be the chalkiest game on the slate. I'm going to focus on (3) other stacks in different price ranges to give you some different options. I've picked a high end stack over $23,000 and a middle at $19,700 and then a cheapy punt stack at $15,300. Notice on the screen shot above that the STACK SCORE is 80+ on all of them.
MINNY is always a great team to stack as they are passing at the highest clip in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has 44, 44 and 50 pass attempts and 344, 364 and 367 passing yards along with 2, 4 and 5 touchdowns. Jefferson is still "ELITE" with 149+ receiving yards in each of his first 3 games. TJ has a solid 8, 7 and 8 receipts on 9, 8 and 11 targets. Expensive but a good pivot off the Bills/Dolphins game!
CHARGERS another good pivot and I like it even more if Ekeler doesn't return this week. Mike Williams is out for the year and Josh Palmer is only (4000) on DK and picked up 7 targets last week and turned that into 4 grabs, 66 yards and a touchdown. Allen has been unreal putting up over 300 receiving yards and 26 receptions in only his LAST 2 GAMES!
TEXANS is the cheap punt stack that you can use if you want something with some upside that is dirt cheap. Tough matchup vs. PIT but at least HOU is at home. Tank Dell (4600) was a hot waiver pickup this week after putting up over 20 DKP in each of the last two weeks. Last week 5 grabs for 145 yards and he has scored in each of the last two games. Nico Collins opened the year 6/80 and then 7/146/1 before leaving the filed in his last game. I'm not sure what happened but heard he left the field so check his status.
Using an average (2800) for a defense that will give you room to move up or down and show you an average amount allowed left per player. You can see in the TOP stack that we only have (4,800) per player, the middle stack we have (5,500) per player and then the dirt cheap stack we have a massive (6,975) per player which really gives you some options to load up some studs!
DAILY FANTASY FILL IN PLAYS FOR THE WEEK:
I'm going to focus on the players in the 4000-6500 range because it is a waste of time to explain why CMC is a good player, etc. Focusing on the middle range players here are the ones jumping out for me.
TANK DELL (4600) is too cheap for his 17 targets over the last two games and his repor with CJ Stroud. If you don't like Tank Dell pivot over to Nico Collins!
PUKA NACUA (6700) is still too cheap for his targets and production volume. Don't let the game last week scare you away as Cincy did everything to take him out of the game and 5/72 still isn't a terrible line.
KYREN WILLIAMS (6000) is going to explode one of these games! He has 17 targets in his last 2 games that turned into minimal production. There will be an 80 rushing yard, 6 receptiosn for another 60 and 1-2 touchdown day coming up soon!
ZACK MOSS (6000) has a massive amount of production for his price tag. Last week 30 rushing attempts for 122 yards and then still managed 2 grabs for another 23 yards. This will likely be the last week we can use him with Jonathan Taylor coming back.
JAKOBI MEYERS (5500) is a great pivot off Davante Adams (8000) but if Jimmy G is under center one of these guys if not both will have big games. Josh Jacobs is struggling and Vegas can't run so it's been all Adams and Meyers. Jakobi Meyers has 10 and 12 targets with 9 and 7 grabs for 81 and 85 yards.
ADAM THIELEN (4500) is dirt cheap. Bryce Young should return this week but let's cross our fingers and hope they sit him one more week becuase I LOVE the 14 targets and the 11/145/1 line he put up last week!
AMARI COOPER (6100) just keeps getting better and better with 7/90 and then 7/116/1 over the last two weeks and is still in that sweet spot of DFS pricing. Make sure Watson is under center as he was resting his shoulder earlier this week.
DFS OPTIMAL LINEUP LAST WEEK:
If you want to get better at DFS look back at the winning lineups and see what you can learn. This was the "best possible" lineup from last week. This was NOT my lineup and I don't know if this was even in a contest but this is the "best possible combo" based on the actual results. Salary was 49,500 so don't worry about leaving money on the table, that is one great way to be different. This lineup put up 331 total points so just have 6x value.
ALGO RANKINGS on NFL CHEATSHEET:
I pulled out the QBs after the TOP 4 so it wasn't flooded as QBs are always projected for the most points. We had 3 of the players in the OPTIMAL LINEUP above in our ALGO. I always recommend filtering out by position and sorting by ALGO to find players to fill into your lineups or pivots. We also look for 3x & up for cash and GPP we need 3x-5x so you can see our value returned in the "ACTUAL" column.
I don't like to give actual lineups out and I don't support the people that do but if you are wanting something 80% filled in here is one that I like. HOU stack is kind of scary this week but you have value high upside WRs as there are not many cheap RBs you can use so I recommend paying up for the RB position.
PLAYER PROPS AND PRIZE PICKS:
Here is the first card that I entered this week before doing any research and wanted to share it as I do with most of my tickets in the Facebook chat group.
COUSINS - 344, 364, 367 passing yards so YES I'll take over 275.5 and this number will continue to rise as it should be 295-305.
STROUD - HOU can't run as no RB has been over 50 yards in a game and Stroud has tossed for 242, 384 and 280 so PP has this at his floor IMO.
LAPORTA - 13 grabs and 147 yards over last 2 weeks on 17 targets, yes to 44+.
JEFFERSON - Has 149+ yards in each of his first 3 games.
THIELEN - 11/145/1 line last week got me excited but now I'm hearing Bryce will be back this week but still like the 49.5+.
ALLEN - Clear WR-1, no Mike Williams and Allen will continue to gobble up targets!
Here is my 2nd card that I put in this AM after doing some article writing and research:
MATTISON - See write up below but details but CAR allowing 4.5 yards per rush and has allowed 2 rush TDs per game over each of the first 3 weeks.
SWIFT - My god man this guy has the best O line opening up holes all over and was shocked to see a rush yards in the 30's last week and hammered it! Still loving this 63.5 line and even bet him 100+.
AMON - No Alexander tonight for Packers so Amon should be good to process as the WR-1 once again.
COOPER - 7/90 and 7/116/1 over the last two weeks on a combined 18 targets puts him on the map. Nick Chubb out for the year and Cooper has stepped up and this line is too low.
ALEXANDER MATTISON vs. CAROLINA
Mattison ran hard last week and now Cam Akers is right behind him breathing down his through. This might be a do or turn into a split backfield week for Mattison. CAR has allowed 2 rushing touchdowns in each of the first 3 weeks. Tyler Allgeier in Week 1, Tony Jones Jr. in Week 2 and then Kenneth Walker last week. CAR allows 33.5 fantasy points to the RB position and over 110 yards per game and 2.0 touchdowns per game. SMASH SPOT if you are playing DFS or Player Props!
EARLY PRIZE PICK LINES THAT ARE 3-0 SO FAR THIS YEAR:
Here are the 3-0 Prize Picks that were up on the Early Week NFL sheet. I can't wait to run the Friday/Saturday update with the rest of the Prize Pick lines and see what they show us! The ones that jump out at me are Kirk, Stroud but tough matchup but they still can't run, Jefferson just smashing with 149+ each week. I would avoid Brian Robinson and James Conner due to tough matchups.
PLAYER PROPS AND SAME GAME PARLAYS:
Several games I'm interested in don't have the individual lines up yet so put this together. It pays around (+1900) and I put 1 unit on each leg since they are all plus money.
Most of the legs on here I've already discussed above on the DFS platform and this feels like a fairly safe dart to throw if you are not a big gambler.
Kirky is throwing for 325-350 but should be able to run this week so we will see what they do but 250+ feels like a safe floor. Jefferson is doubling this line each week and TJ Hock is 6-8 grabs a week so needed a standard line to get this into plus money.
I post several more of these in our Facebook chat on Saturday when we get more lines up!
SPORTS BETTING PICK:
SEATTLE (+1) OVER NEW YORK
This is the only game so far on the NFL CheatSheet with the green checkmark showing us a significant difference in our model vs. Vegas. Vegas opened this around (+1) and it’s between (+1) and (pick’em) right now. Our model has this projected at 31-21 with Seattle winning this game by 10 points! Wow! Now we have to dig in and see if we agree with it. Offensively we have Seattle (4th) vs. NYG (29th) and on the defensive side of the ball Seattle (23rd) vs. NYG 31st. Seattle is allowing the 6th least amount of rushing yards per game and only 2.9 yards per carry so that will certainly make the Giants a one dimensional team. NYG only rushed for 29 yards last week against a tough San Fran defense and I don’t believe Saquon will return for this game. NYG allowed 28 points to an awful Arizona team the week prior and then 40 and 30 points to the Cowboys and 49’ers. SEA has scored 37 and 37 points the last two weeks and check Walker scoring 4 rushing touchdowns in that span! Last week Seattle put up 37 first downs, 146 rushing yards and 425 total yards. If SEA gets a lead Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have the perfect setup to run out the clock and lock down the win!
Website under "Sports Picks" has (3) NFL Favorite Plays, (1) Secondary NFL Play and my favorite 6.5 point teaser legs along with (4) Favorite College Football Picks & (3) College Football secondary liens! Try the weekend premium pass for only $11.99 if you are not already a member!
WANTED TO SHOW YOU SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS VS ACTUAL SCORES FROM LAST WEEK:
Projected a 32-15 score and final was 30-12! Our model projected this Vegas spread at (-17) and Vegas was only (-11) for a +6 point edge.
Projected a final of 21-19 with PIT winning as a slight dog and the final was 23-18 with PIT winning as a dog!
NOTE: We did miss several games as I'm not pointing this out to say we are 100% perfect but this is a good spot to start your research and point you in the right direction. I don't always agree with the model but it's just another tool that you can use to narrow down your games. Some of them are scary close to the actaul final scores as you can see above.
Good Luck,
Haze