NFL Week 5 DFS, Sports Betting & Prize Picks!
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WEEKLY RECAP: We had some solid fill in players with Puka who put up 34.1 DKP for 5.1x value, Kyren Williams for 30.7 DKP and 5.1x value and Adam Thielen who only had 15.2 DKP but was still good for 3.5x value. This was one of the lineups that I gave out the majority and it won our small weekly contest which had 18 entries. Our PRIZE PICKS card did not cash as we only got 3/6 which was held up with the Kirk Cousins & Justin Jefferson combo. Sports Betting Picks smashed with SEATTLE (+1) as our model projected Seattle to win by 10 and they rolled up an easy winner!
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DAILY FANTASY SPORTS:
We are going to focus on the 4500-6500 range of players with 3 running backs, 3 wide receivers and 3 GPP quarterbacks.
MATTHEW STAFFORD (5600) – Philly has been really good against the RUN but they are allowing the 27th most passing yards per game so that is going to be the path to success for the Rams. Eagles are allowing only 3.3 yards per rush attempt (5th best) and 63 rushing yards per game (2nd best). Stafford has also thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of his 4 games this season. We know Philly will rack up some points and the Rams will be forced to throw to keep up!
ZACH WILSON (4900) – Denver made Justin Fields look like Dan Marino last week allowing him to throw for 335 yards with 4 touchdowns. Fields didn’t have more than 1 touchdown pass in any of the first 3 games this year so that was a big leap. Zach Wilson is coming off a pretty positive game against KC where he went for 245 and 2 with no picks and gets this porus DEN team. I’m not a Zach Wilson fan but any QB priced under 5000 opens up the potential for monster lineups and he is in a smash spot.
JOSHUA DOBBS (5200) – Dobbs is quietly having a pretty solid season and coming off a tough game against the 49’ers where he tossed for 265 and 2. His last 3 games he has provided some solid rushing stats with 48, 55 and 41 rushing yards. He put up 23.4 DKP vs. San Fran (on the road) and then 17 DKP vs. Dallas and 25.2 DKP vs. NYG. So, if he is locking in 3x-4x values vs top NFL defensive units what can he do against a bottom half defensive team like Cincy?
CASH GAMES I PREFER: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts & Tua Tagovailoa.
BREECE HALL (5400) – This is to cheap for a RB with upside in a smash spot. NYJ keep saying they want to “unleash” Breece Hall so let’s see what happens this week. DEN is allowing 176 rushing yards per game (32nd) and 5.6 yards per rush attempt (31st). Enough said.
DEVON ACHANE (6100) / RAHEEM MOSTERT (6200) – NYG are allowing the 25th most rushing yards per game (133.8) and 4.4 yards per carry (20th) along with 30.5 PPG (30th). The last HOME game Miami played they put up 70 points. MIA is an 11.5 point favorite as of now so expect several RB carries in the second half to run out the clock. It’s a toss up who will get the majority of carries but both are viable options. Achane has a slight lead over Mostert with 18 vs. 13 carries in Week 3 and then 8 vs. 7 carries in Week 4 but should be a split of sorts.
ALVIN KAMARA (6300) – Not a great matchup against this New England defense but in PPR scoring Kamara had 13 catches on 14 targets with 11 rushing attempts. They did not amount for many yards but the pure touches and catches alone for a low 6K RB puts him on the GPP map.
GARRETT WILSON (6000) – I’m torn on Wilson but for GPP he’s a viable option with his 14 targets last week. He quietly caught 9 balls for 60 yards and has a great matchup vs. a Denver defense that allowed Fields to throw for 4 passing touchdowns last week.
TANK DELL (4800) – The fun thing about Houston is this passing game and watching them grow together. Either Nico Collins or Tank Dell will go boom! In Week 2 we saw both of them put up solid numbers and in Week 3 Nico Collins drew the tough CB shadow giving Tank Dell a 145 yard and 1 touchdown performance. Last week Nico Collins blew up with a 7/168/2 line for a monster performance. This week I’m going back to Tank Dell as he is cheap and Nico Collins should draw coverage from AJ Terrell in the majority of his routes giving us monster upside on a sub 5k WR.
MARQUISE BROWN (5000) / MICHAEL WILSON (3700) – Arizona should be able to move the ball against Cincy this week and with Joe Burrow feeling better I expect they will put some points up at home. Marquise Brown is the WR-1 and has 6, 5 and 7 catches for 96, 61 and 54 yards and 2 touchdowns in 3 games. Solid for a 5K WR. Michael Wilson was a hot waiver pickup for 1300 less (on DK) and is coming off a solid 7/76 game with 2 touchdowns. Rondale Moore has been non-existent and has 1, 8, 14 and 33 yards so far this year with no scores.
DEFENSE VS. POSITION - WEEK 5
DVP - RUNNING BACK POSITION - Here is what our NEW DVP tool looks like as we added in a few other columns. For Running Backs we added in the opponent team yards allowed per rush attempt and brought over the RB1 names for quick reference when lineup building!
TARGET TRACKER PREVIEW - NFL WEEK 5
FANTASY POINT TRACKING - Here are the players that AVERAGE 3.0X value and up!
LINEUP VAULT - These are to get your juices flowing, please don't copy exact lines!
The more I wrote this article an ARI stack made sense with Dobbs upside. I don't prefer to use (3) pass catchers but pick any (2) of these. Running it back with 1 high upside player on the other side is a great way to game stack! Love the $7000 per player to fill in the other (3) spots as this gives you tons of flexibility to play some studs!
Kansas City has a high implied total this week but it's going to be expensive with Mahomes over 8K and Kelce at 7.6K. I live in KC so most of my buddies are always stacking KC so my two cents is using RICE as his usage quietly keeps growing and he is only $3600!
CJ Stroud won me our mini league at CheatSheetPros for $40 bones so I don't mind going back to him again. This week I'll try to be different by using Tank Dell over Nico Collins in hopes that AJ Terrell is going to shadow Nico and slow him down thus giving big games to Tank Dell and Robert Woods. Stack is very affordable!
PHILLY is in a smash spot this week as the Rams secondary is trash but Philly will also be highly owned. For GPPs I like to take the cheaper side in the Rams who will need to throw to stay in the game and run it back with two Eagles and hope for a shootout! Not sure if Cooper Kupp is playing this week or will be limited but keep an eye on his status!
CASH GAME LINEUP:
In cash I like to take SAFE high FLOOR players and usually that is 3 running backs. Lamar Jackson is the perfect cash QB as he will either lead the team in rushing or toss for 2-3 touchdowns as BAL doesn't have a stand out running back right now. Fill in with cheap high upside WRs in good spot such as Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, Bateman (should return this week), Tyler Boyd (if Tee Higgins is out), Robert Woods, etc.
SPORTS BETTING PICKS OF THE WEEK:
BUFFALO (-5) OVER JACKSONVILLE
Line opened at (-4.5) and now (-5) with 84% of the money and rightfully so as our model has this projected 26-17 (9 point spread). Buffalo made a statement last week knocking off Miami 48-20 and don’t overlook their 2 prior games that were 37-3 and 38-10 point wins. Jacksonville did win last week but it was ugly with only 16 first downs, 105 total rushing yards and 195 total passing yards and even got 2 turnovers from ATL. Buffalo rolls past Jacksonville and this spread is mis-priced as it should be between 7-10 points.
KANSAS STATE (-11.5) OVER OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State ranks 115th on offense and they are barely putting up 300 yards per game (115th). Their last HOME game they got beat by South Alabama (#73) by a score of 33-7. K-State coming off a solid dominating performance against UCF where they won 44-31 with a 32-19 first down edge and a 536-407 total yard edge. Our two custom models has this score projected 34-19 and 43-20 so they are both looking at a solid cover!
If you like these write ups and picks there are (14) total picks (NFL/NCAA) with write ups on the website available to MEMBERS or on the WEEKEND PASS ($11.99) on the website right now!
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PLAYER PROPS & PRIZE PICKS:
PRO TIP: HOW I FIND MY PLAYER PROPS: There isn’t any magical formula that you can put together and believe me I have tried everything! You just have to research, dig into game logs and look at matchups! I do (2) main things: I go to the “PrizePicks” tab on the NFL CheatSheet and sort by the AVERAGE difference between what the player is averaging and what their line is and then I start digging from there making notes and writing down players. The SECOND thing I do is go to the MAIN TAB and it is also sorted by the highest ALGO players and then I just start going down the list and looking at their game logs vs. PrizePick or player prop lines to see what jumps out.
We have all the game logs on the “Game Logs” tab so I can see what a player has done per game, who they faced and see everything from carries, attempts, targets, rushes, touchdowns, receptions, yardages, INTs, etc. It makes building same game parlays a cake walk compared to opening up 5 different websites and constantly searching for game logs and player stats. And for less than 50 cents a day you can have access to all of these great tools! Sorry had to put my salesman ship in there.
TYREEK HILL OVER 86.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Giants don’t have a corner that can cover Tyreek Hill so he should be able to feast this week. Tyreek Hill has 5, 11, 9 and 15 targets this year and was held in check by the stout Bills defense and Bill Bellicheck. His other two games he went off for 9/157/1 and then 11/215/2 so just going over 86.5 yards is a no brainer for me this week.
A.J. BROWN OVER 76.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Philly is in a SMASH spot this week as the Rams secondary is not great and 2 of the 3 corners are below average. Since AJ Brown started his crying and complaining he has received 27 targets over the last 2 games and combined those for 18 catches and 306 yards with 2 touchdowns. Let’s ride the cry baby train while he gets to eat!
DEVON ACHANE OVER 50.5 RUSHING YARDS
I worry about the number of carries but this guy is just smashing when he gets his hands on the ball. In Week 3 he got 18 carries and turned those into 203 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 4 he only got 8 carries but turned those into 101 yards and 2 more touchdowns. If they post a “Fantasy Score” that is what I’d really be interested in because he has turned in a 4/30 and 3/19 line in the passing game over the last two weeks giving you +7 and +4.9 fantasy points. PrizePicks doesn’t have one up but keep an eye out and consider it!
ALVIN KAMARA PROPS
I really want to know what his “Fantasy Score” line will be as it should be somewhere between 10-12 points and I’ll go OVER! Last week he didn’t do much yardwise but managed 51 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards but it’s the 13 CATCHES on 14 TARGETS that was impressive, in PPR scoring that is 13 points in just the receptions. Playing a tough New England defense he could get his over with only receptions!
LAMAR JACKSON OVER 1.5 PASS+RUSH+REC TDS
Baltimore lost JK Dobbins for the season and no one else has been that impressive so Lamar will be forced to score on the ground. He has 4 rushing touchdowns in the last 2 games and then he has thrown for 2, 0 and 2 touchdowns over the last 3 games. Total combined touchdowns over the last 3 games have been 4, 2 and 2 so whether he RUNS it in or PASSES it in they count for his over 1.5. With a team putting up almost 25 PPG I don’t see how they can score that many points WITHOUT Lamar having at least 2 touchdowns. Rashod Bateman & Odell Beckham should return this week to give him some extra weapons!
DAVID MONTGOMER OVER 69.5 RUSHING YARDS
Love the volume as he had 32 carries in week 4, missed week 3 and then had 16 and 21 carries in the first two weeks. Lions are not afraid to give Montgomery the ball and let him go! Coming off a 32 carry - 121 yard performance with 3 touchdowns he should easily eclipse the 69.5 line. To be certain we should look at the CAR rushing defense to make sure we aren’t going to run into a gauntlet. CAR ranks 26th on total defense, 27th in rushing yards allowed per game and my favorite stat is yard allowed per rush attempt and they are allowing 4.7 which ranks 28th so YES we are good to go for an over!
JOSHUA DOBBS OVER 21.5 RUSHING YARDS
This is funny I was actually searching “Josh Jacobs” because he has a good spot and wanted to dig into him but he wasn’t available on PP right now but when I typed “Josh” it brought up Joshua Dobbs and I glanced over and saw 21.5 rushing yards and was like, “OH Daddy want some of that!” I don’t know much about Dobbs but he has rushed for 48, 55 and 41 yards against San Fran, Dallas and NYG so the 21.5 line just looks silly. He has 18 rushing attempts in the last 2 games (12 & 6) so why not take a shot at the 21.5 number in a game they could win outright as a dog!
There you have (7) plays that jump out at me right now and you can only play a max of (6) so I have forced you to make a decision and eliminate your least favorite one or pick your favorite few!