NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
Bonus Content on YouTube Video: https://youtu.be/NBSbig1RyrA
HOW DID WE DO LAST WEEK?
Projected Rams to win by 6 and they won by 9. We had 28-22 and final was 26-17 so we were pretty darn close to nailing that score! We had TEN by 7.5 and won by 18. We projected it around 28-20 covering the -4 or -5.5 spread and they won 37-19 and without that last TEN TD the 30-19 was really close to the 28-20 our model pegged it at. We had MIN projected to win a close game 26-24 and they did win a nail biter 19-17 but either way if you took DET +10 you were sitting pretty good. Packer game was a fun watch as we had Packers 22-21 and final was 25-22. The most surprising hit was our projected score on Buffalo/KC. We projected Buffalo to win 36-21 as a dog and it was by far our largest difference off the Vegas spread and final was 38-20!
I haven’t followed totals that much but some things jumped out at me last week. CLE/LAC opened at 50.5 and moved down to 47 and our model had it at 52 and we all know that went way over. CIN/GB opened at 48 and moved to 50 and we had 43.5 and it ended up at 47 sliding under.
BETS THAT WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
PACKERS -4.5 OVER CHICAGO
CHARGERS +3 OVER BALTIMORE
LA CHARGERS +9.5 + OVER 45.5 (6.5 point Teaser)
DALLAS -3.5 over NE
GAMES I HAVE A LEAN ON BUT HAVEN'T BET YET:
CINCY -3.5 over DET (Winless but getting close!)
LA RAMS -9.5 over NYG (Saquonless)
LAC/BAL over 52
TEASER (6.5) 2 UNIT HAMMER:
LA RAMS (-9.5 tease down to -3)
LA CHARGERS (+3 tease up to +9.5)
You can shoot up the value of the teaser by adding Arizona, Tampa Bay (TH) or the Baltimore/LAC over if you want a higher payout!
3 TEAM - 10 POINTS - SPECIALTY TEASER:
LA RAMS (-9.5 teasing to PICK)
DALLAS (-3.5 teasing to +6.5) (I don't like to cross 0 but with Dallas scoring 36+ points L3 hard to see them losing by 7.)
LAC/BAL OVER (52 teasing to 42) (Most books will allow at least 1 total on a specialty teaser and they are easy hits which is why they don't allow 2 or 3 totals together. We have this at 56.5 total points. LAC is a pass happy team against a team that can't stop the pass and LAC trouble stopping the run and Ravens are a run happy team!)
OTHER OPTIONS TO CONSIDER IN THE TEASER:
BUFFALO (-5.5 TO +4.5) VS. TITANS
LA CHARGERS (+3 TO +13)
Now let's get to the breakdown and analysis! Last week was a great week for myself as I hit a 5 team parlay, 4 team parlay and all my teasers!
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4.5) OVER CHICAGO
Cheat Line has been FIRE and it has Packers -7.5 with a projected line around 24-16 or 24-17.
This game is simple as we have the Colts & Packers both with around 110 yard edges so would you rather lay -10 with the Colts or -4.5 with the Packers? Packers!
Both defenses have been solid boasting the 6th and 8th least amount of yards allowed but Packers are putting up over 100 more yards of offensive.
LA CHARGERS(+3) OVER BALTIMORE [Consider over 52]
Both of these teams are rock solid so we gotta grab the points! Cheat Line has it around pick'em and something around a 1 point game with 56.5 points being scored. I prefer to tease it up because once you cross +7.5 that feels like a lock!
Both of these teams rank 7th and 1st in offensive yards and while LAC comes in middle of the road in defensive yards allowed BAL comes in 24th with 389 per game and 28th in passing yards per game (296) and that is what Herbert is a monster at - passing!
Consider the OVER 52. Line opened at 48 and moved to 52. We project this game with 177 yards over average and a total of 56.5 points!
LA CHARGERS (+9.5) TEASED WITH OVER 45.5 - LOVE THIS!!!
CINCY (-3.5) OVER LIONS
Cheat Line does NOT like this game as it projected it around 24-22.
My projected efficiency is the difference for me as we have CINCY projected around a 13.7 (YPP) vs. 20.1 (YPP) for DET. Without going full nerd that means if both teams average around 360 offensive yards CINCY would get 26 points and DET only 18 thus winning by 8 points covering the -3.5 line. Let's see what happens!
DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5) OVER LAS VEGAS
Cheat Line does not this game as it's close to the Vegas spread so just FYI this is all HAZE leaning on it!
The deciding factor for me is on the above screen shot as DEN only has a 42% Red Zone TD% which is horrible but Vegas is ALLOWING a 90.9% TD % so I think Denver has an easier time scoring. On the other size Vegas is scoring in the Red Zone at 58.8% and Denver is only allowing a 50% number so we can safely assume something around 50-55%.
My internal feel on this game is something like 21-24 for Denver with a 17 for Vegas squeaking by in the divisional home game after all the Jon Gruden distractions all week taking it's toll.
DALLAS (-3.5) OVER NEW ENGLAND
Statistically this game is right around the Vegas spread. Bobby Index likes it at -3.5 and Cheat Line also has -3.5 and Vegas has it at -3.5 so safe to say -3.5 is a good line at this point in the week.
For me the difference is the two offenses with Dallas putting up 440 yards per game (2nd) and New England only 320 (26th). Dallas has put up 44, 36 and 41 points in their last 3 games and faced a touch Carolina team in the middle of those.
NE has put up 25, 17, 13, 25 and 16 points on the year so they only went over 17 points twice and it was against HOU and NYJ.
So if I'm looking at NE scoring 17-21 points that means to cover -3.5 I only need Dallas to put up 21-28 points? I'll take a shot on that happening.
Effective line here I think Dallas puts up around 400 offensive yards for 27 points and NE is around 355 for 19 points.
BUFFALO (-5.5) OVER TENNESSEE
Cheat Line has -11 with a projected score around 33-21.
Things that jump out at me: Total DEF ranks 1st vs. 27th, Rush DEF rank 1st vs. 27th and Pass DEF ranks 1st vs. 25th.
Buffalo is allowing the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game and 2nd fewest passing yards per game.
Titans are 31st in QB pass protection and Buffalo is 7th at applying pressure.
Efficiency has Buffalo around 11.6 (YPP) and TEN 19.6 (YPP) so if they both were around league average yardage (360) they would mean a score of 31-19. But they are not and we have Buffalo projected for 430 yards and Tennessee for only 286.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!