NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Congrats to Eric who took home $7,000 in an afternoon only single entry GPP last week. Last week some of our top plays on the Algo were Claypool, Julio Jones and Justin Jefferson and they smashed! Mattison didn't really do anything and Montgomery just doesn't get enough carries to be effective and chase 100 yards. I'm testing out adding the "rush plays" and "pass plays" into the sheet so I can lower the high RBs that hardly run the ball and raise the high RBs who are in run-heavy offenses. Make sure to check back at the end of the week for my "Punt Plays of the Week!".
TARGET GAMES:
These are games that we want a piece of in our DFS lineups because they have horrible defenses and decent offensive production.
DETROIT LOINS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
This game is sitting with a total of 55.5 and our algo has this at 56.3 so we agree that there should be a ton of points. I want some Lions in my DFS lineups and the main reason is that they are only projected for a team of 95.6 points but ATL is allowing 126.6 DK points per game. This gives us a 30 point cushion. That means the normal optimizers using standard DK projections are going to be low on DET players and that is a place we can attack!
Detroit has the 30th rated rushing defense and ATL has the 30th rated passing defense. Now ATL hasn’t been great against the rush and they are only allowing 97.2 rushing yards per game but that isn’t because they are good, that is because they are allowing 335.3 passing yards per game which ranks 31st in the NFL. DET should be able to throw all over ATL. ATL also ranks 30th vs. WR-1 so give me some Kenny Golladay (6700). I also like T.J. Hockenson (5100) as ATL also ranks 25th at covering the TE. Marvin Jones is a punt play for large field GPPs but other than around 3-5 targets a game he isn’t really doing much. D’Andre Swift (5400) is still really cheap and putting up solid production. He is coming off a solid 30 point outing and prior to that he has 15.2 points. He has also had at least 4 targets in every game besides 1. If you want to fade some Swift chalk then you can go over to Adrian Peterson (4600) who has a good shot a the same amount of carries as Swift and a chance at getting in the end zone. Don’t forget to pair Matthew Stafford (6500) with your pass catchers as he is in a smash spot this week.
Todd Gurley is getting a ton of volume but has limited upside as the Falcons are throwing at a 61% clip. He should have success as DET is allowing 145 rushing yards per game. I don’t mind eating some chalk in this game with Julio Jones (7100) or Calvin Ridley (7300) as one of them is always bound to have a huge game.
JAX @ LA CHARGERS
Vegas opened the total at 49 and it is still 49. Justin Herbert (6400) is in a smash spot. JAX ranks 32nd in passing defense and Herbert will be able to sling it all over with his 7th rated passing offense. We have LAC projected at 24.5 points and Vegas has them at 28.5 so we are going get some production out of these Chargers. JAX is allowing 142 rushing yards per game (28th) but Justin Jackson/Joshua Kelley are only GPP plays for me and don’t really stand out. Justin Jackson (4900) is projected for around 70-80 total yards with 4-5 grabs and a 30% shot at a TD so he would be my preference. Keenan Allen (6200) is also a target monster when Herbert is under center as he had 32 targets across week 3 and week 4 before getting hurt in week 5. Hunter Henry (4500) is on my board as JAX is 23rd at covering the TE. Mike Williams (4700) was also a monster last time out grabbing two amazing touchdown passes from Herbert.
The only interest I have in JAX is the run back portion of the stack off the Chargers. To explain what I mean when you are stacking a QB with a couple pass catchers it is always good to have a WR from the other team. D.J. Chark has 13, 5 and 9 targets the last 3 week, Keelan Cole has 16 in the last two weeks and Laviska Shenault Jr. has 22 across the last 3 games. I like the run back with JAX WRs because they are throwing at a 68% clip which is insanely high!
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
Arizona ran through what looks to be a horrible Dallas team with no Dak under center but they have a new beast this week with the Seattle Seahawks. This should be a fun game to watch with the Vegas total opening at 55 and already moved to 56. Our algo has this game at 55.3 so we agree there will be a lot of points. The key numbers here are Seattle ranks #2 in total offense and has the #3 passing offense and Seattle also owns the 29th rated passing defense. Seattle is throwing on 61% of plays and Arizona 54%. Take your pick here: DeAndre Hopkins (8200) is a fun target as SEA is 25th vs. WR-1 coverage and sitting on 10.3 targets per game including 9 last week alone in their 38-10 win. Christian Kirk (4900) is another viable stack target if using Murray as he semi-broke out last week. I still don’t like Kenyan Drake and I will fully fade him this week hoping other people try to chase that lucky production last week. SEA is also only allowing 100.8 rushing yards per game (7th) but that is mainly because every game is a shootout through the air. I don’t think ARI can take a lead and pound Drake 20-25 times and each clock. I’m betting shoot-out!
Russell Wilson (8000), D.K. Metcalf (7200), Tyler Lockett (6600), Chris Carson (6400) will have all the production and they are all solid plays. No further explanation needed at this point.
FAVORITE STACKS FOR GPP:
Justin Herbert / Keenan Allen / (Henry -or- Mike Williams) and run in back with D.J. Chark (or pivot over to Cole / Shenault if you need to save money).
Matthew Stafford / Golladay / Hockenson and run back with Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley.
Kyler Murray / DeAndre Hopkins / Christian Kirk and run back with Lockett or D.K. Metcalf.
Russell Wilson / Lockett / Metcalf and run it back with DeAndre Hopkins or Kirk and if you are tight on money you can drop the SEA WR down to Chris Carson as he also catches several screen passes and will give you some differentiation to your lineups.
TARGET MONSTERS:
Targets = Volume = Points, this is where we can find some good potential.
MOST TARGETS FROM WEEK 6:
Jamison Crowder (13 targets)
D.J. Chark (13 targets)
Terry McLaurin (11 targets)
A.J. Green (11 targets)
Travis Fulgham (11 targets)
DJ Moore (11 targets)
Will Fuller (11 targets)
Amari Cooper (10 targets)
Stephon Diggs (10 targets)
Kittle (10 targets)
Julio Jones (10 targets)
CeeDee Lamb (10 targets)
Ertz (10 targets)
Robert Woods (10 targets)
Keelan Cole (10 targets)
Firkser (10 targets)
TARGETS PER GAME – SEASON:
TRENCHES:
Here we are looking to attack some of the weak defensive lines!
32 – HOUSTON – SMASH SPOT Aaron Jones! Derrick Henry is one of the worst RBs in the league after contact and he put up 212 rushing yards and 2 TDs on Houston last week.
31 – DET – ATL has limited upside rushing with all the passing they do and their stud WRs. But volume will be there if they can get a lead and eat the clock. GPP only.
30 – MIAMI – BYE WEEK
29 – LAS VEGAS – Not on the main slate but Ronald Jones is looking like a smash spot here!
28 – LA RAMS – Not on the main slate but the Bears only run 36% of their plays which ranks 29th in the league. Limited ceiling for David Montgomery.
27 – PACKERS – LA Rams have the 4th highest rush play percentage in the league at 48.8% of their plays. If you can figure out which RB to use I love them this week in a game where they need to keep the Packers offense off the field.
26 – DALLAS – Washington runs at a very low clip (36.8% - ranks 28th) so hopefully others will play some Antonio Gibson. Good spot but don’t have much interest.
25 – CIN – Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt in a smash spot! CLE runs at a 50.1% clip which is 2nd in the NFL. Love some Hunt this week!
DEFENSE VS. POSITION POINTS ALLOWED:
Screen shot below explains everything. You can determine which teams give up the most fantasy points at the position or even per game!
Thank you for taking the time to read my article. I wish I had time to break down all the games and post all the screen shots but I try to pick the best games to target for everyone. I've been adding screen shots so you can see how it looks on the NFL cheat sheets and what I'm looking at when I write the articles and do my breakdowns. Good luck!
Thanks for reading,
Haze