NFL Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL is red hot right now as we move to 8-2 over the last two weeks on our posted article picks! If you are looking for a future bet I like Tampa Bay to win the NFC at +275. I mean Seattle has no defense, Dallas lost Dak and the Saints defense isn’t playing at a high level right now. Packers are about the only contender I see right now. So to bet them at +275 you have to give them greater than a 36% chance to come out the NFC side and with that defense and adding depth at RB (Fournette) and WR (Antonio Brown) I definitely see that as a high possibility.
NFL BEST BETS:
These are the best bets that I’ve put together using our NFL cheat sheets!
STEELERS +4 OVER BALTIMORE:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Baltimore 25.3 vs. Steelers 24.7
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: PICK’EM
NOTES: Almost every time these teams meet up this is a 3 point game so I’m gladly taking the +4 or +3.5 in some spots. Both teams are great on offense ranking 11th and 10th and both teams are also great on defense ranking 2nd and 4th. PIT is only allowing 68.8 rush yards per game (2nd best) and only 217.5 passing yards per game (6th best). While Ravens are not slouch they are allowing 109 rush yards per game and 230.8 passing yards. This should be a defensive slug fest so I’m gladly grabbing the points here. I trust that PIT defense a little more after KC thumped Baltimore they seem to be playing in a “stunned” mode after almost losing their last game. Roethlisberger with Claypool, Johnson and JuJu I’ll take all day over Lamar Jackson with Brown, Duvernay and Snead. STEELERS +4
TAMPA BAY -10.5 OVER NY GIANTS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Bucs 29 vs. NYG 18
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Bucs -10.5
NOTES: Our algo line is right on the Vegas line at -10.5. That Tampa Bay defense is playing in solid form right now ranking #1 overall and allowing only 66 rush yards per game and 225 passing yards per game. That is only 291 total yards allowed! The NYG are not a power house as they rank 27th in rush yards per game at 98.1 and then 30th in pass yards per game at 184.3. Stack on this defense and I don’t think they will get over that 13-17 point window. So if you are sticking with my mentality for this game you have to decide if the Bucs can hang 28 points on the 27th rated passing defense of the Giants? I think this game is more of a 31-34 points for the Bucs and 13-17 for the Giants. I’m putting this game on a 10 point teaser and love taking them from -10.5 down to basically pick. LOCK IN THOSE BUCS!
SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 OVER SEATTLE:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: San Fran 28 vs. Seattle 27
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: San Fran -1
NOTES: Our algo likes San Fran -1 and we are getting +3 to +3.5 so that is a game we have to consider. I like the SF money line mixed into a fun parlay. Seattle is great but they are allowing 28.7 points per game and allowing 479.2 yards per game. Eventually the luck for Seattle will run out. San Fran comes into this game with the 7th best defense and 13th best passing defense. 79% of the money is on Seattle right now laying the points so this is one that we might even be able to sit on and squeak out a +4 closer to game time.
INDY -3 OVER DETROIT:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: INDY 27 vs. DET 23
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: IND -4
NOTES: Our algo line says Indy -4 and we are laying -3 right now. DET pulled out a lucky win for us last week vs. ATL on a last second play. However the difference in this game is the team defenses. INDY comes in ranked 5th in the league and they aren’t one sided either they are the #5 rush defense and #4 passing defense. INDY has been struggling on offense but they should find success this week running the ball with Taylor as DET is giving up 131.8 yards per game on the ground (26th). DET holes the 23rd rushing defense and 14th passing defense. IND also allows the 2nd least amount of total yards per game at only 288 while DET is allowing 380.5 (22nd). Even if DET can stay in this game (which I don’t think they can) IND can grind down the clock with their running game and push it into the endzone. I have no problem laying -3 with Indy.
CLEVELAND / LAS VEGAS OVER 52.5
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Cleveland 31 vs. Vegas 29
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: We have them putting up 59.6 points!
NOTES: Line opened at 55.5 but has dropped down to 52.5. This lines up perfect for a shootout and if you read my DFS article you would see this as my sneaky shootout game. Both teams have great offenses with Las Vegas 13th and Cleveland 18th and both teams have horrible defenses at 31st and 25th. Now the passing yards allowed per game by each team in nuts! You can Vegas allowing 283.8 PY/G which ranks 28th and then Cleveland giving up 288.1 PY/G which ranks 30th. Offensive PPG they each average 28.5 and 28.6 and defensive points per game allowed are 32.8 and 31.6. Now be careful 88% of the money is on the under but I’m rolling the over with this one!
SAINTS -4.5 OVER BEARS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Saints 26 vs. Bears 22
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Saints -4
NOTES: Vegas line opened at -2 and after that shit show vs. the Rams it jumped out to -4.5. The Bears defense is solid but laying a couple points over a FG isn’t touch as the Saints have a far superior offense. They are putting up 30 points per game and even though their defense which ranks 9th is allowing 29 PPG I don’t think the Bears can take advantage. Bears are at 308 yards per game on offense which ranks 29th in the NFL. They can’t run the ball and they can’t protect Foles. If the Saints blitz and come after Foles this one could be over early. Lay the points.
TITANS (-6) OVER BENGALS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Titans 30 vs. Bengals 24
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: TITANS -5.5
NOTES: Sheet does not agree with our pick as they have it close to the Vegas spread. After watching the Titans fight back last week against that tough PIT defense I was extremely impressed. This won’t be the same kind of fight with CIN ranking 29th in total defense and 26th in passing defense. A.J. Brown should have a monster game and Derrick Henry will shed them on the ground and keep Burrow off the field. Titans come in with the #2 passing offense and 13th best rushing offense. CIN is allowing 133.7 rush yards per game and 261 pass yards per game for a total of almost 400 yards per game putting them in the bottom 7. This game could fall right around the spread by still leaning over to Titans getting back on track and I think they take this by 10+.
LA RAMS (-3.5) OVER MIAMI
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Rams 23 vs. Miami 22
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Pick’em
NOTES: Algo line does not agree but there is a QB change and rookie Tua is taking over this week. That Rams defense looked great against the Bears and they come in ranking 10th overall and also hold the 5th best offense and #1 rushing offense in the league. Now MIAMI has the 32nd rated rushing defense so Rams RBs should run all over. Rams allow the 7th least amount of rushing yards and 5th least amount of passing yards per game. I don’t expect Tua to show up and destroy a top NFL defense in his first start with the likes of DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford and Mike Gesicki at his fingertips.
Don’t love it but don’t hate it. Lay the points!
Thank you for taking the time to read my picks and how I’m leaning on the early NFL looks for Week 8. I’m definitely putting Tampa Bay in my 10 point teaser but still searching for those other two perfect games. Good luck and you can view my cheat sheets at CheatSheetPros.com!