PGA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
PGA article will reference finishes at the “current tournament” that does not always mean it is the same “course”. We are breaking down the course and giving you some picks that we like on our first review of the weekly PGA tournament.
This course has (4) Par 5s on it so Par 5 scoring will be key. The Par 5s that are 550-600 hold the two highest birdie rates at 44.8% and 39.3%. The next highest birdie rate hole is the Par 5: 500-550 range at 33.3%. People always talk about the high birdie rate holes but I also think we need to focus on the HARD holes with a high bogey percentage and find golfers who are solid in that category. For this course the Par 3: 203 yard #13 is the hardest hole and holds a 22% bogey rate and 6.1% double bogey percentage. The second hardest hole is a Par 3: 235 yard #6 hole with a 19.4% bogey rate and almost 5% double bogey rate. If you have ever played golf 200+ is a LONG PAR 3 but anyone with strong SG: APP should also do well here as it’s part of their accuracy.
GREEN TYPE: Bermuda
Top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda Greens: (Last 50 Rounds)
1. Patton Kizzire
2. Denny McCarthy
3. Peter Malnati
4. Sam Burns
5. J.T. Poston
6. Andrew Putnam
7. Rickie Fowler
8. Charl Schwartzel
9. Hunter Mahan
10. Beau Hossler
KEY STATS TO FOCUS ON:
Par 5 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring / Gained
SG: T2G – Great “catch all” stat to look at. Last year 17 of the top 20 in T2G made the cut and went deep with most in the top 15.
SG: Approach – Specifically the proximity of 150-175 is the main focus and 200+ is the secondary focus. Of the proximity shots the 150-175 made up over 5,000 shots, and the 200+ was over 4,000 shots and all other proximity ranges none of them was over 2,800.
American Express Past Winners:
2020: Andrew Landry -26 2019: Adam Long -26 2018: Jon Rahm -22 2017: Hudson Swafford -20 2016: Jason Dufner -25 2015: Bill Haas -22 2014: Patrick Reed -28
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
SUNGJAE IM (9900 DK / 11100 FD) – He is projected in the industry at a low 6.5-7.0x value this week and that put him on my radar. That means they expect him to put up 65-70 DKPs so I’m trying to figure out can he exceed that? He has a solid 7th in T2G, 4th in OTT and 11th in SG: APP. He also ranks 13th in Proximity of 200+. He has finished 10th and 12th here the last two years and has recently put up 74, 98, 71, 143.5, 70 and 108 DKPs. So I think the projection of sub 70 DKPs is the FLOOR for Sunjae this week with upside of 120+.
DK POINTS RANK: 26th
T2G RANK: 7th
SG: APP RANK: 11th
RUSSELL HENLEY (9000 DK / ??? FD) – Statwise he flies off the page and priced at a low 9000 on DK I’m sure he will be highly owned this week so I prefer him in cash games over GPPs. He has made 6/7 cuts for 86% with an average finish of 30.1. The only “red flag” I can see is that he has missed 3 straight cuts here. He has put up 88-109 DKPs in 4 of his last 5 events giving you around a 10x floor. His proximity stats are off the charts as he ranks 5th in total proximity and 6th in 150-175. He ranks 1st in Par 3 scoring and 2nd in Par 4 scoring. He is not a long hitter but he is accurate. If he can take some birdies on these Par 5s he could content. He ranks 197th in Par 5 scoring so keep that in mind and just don’t lock him into all your lineups.
DK POINTS RANK: 18th
T2G RANK: 1st
SG: APP RANK: 1st
SAM BURNS (8300 DK / 10300 FD) – Our top GPP Algo play this week is Sammy Burns! He has made 4/5 cuts for 80% with an average finish of 35.2. His last 3 events he has put up 99.5, 91.5 and 104 DK points which is smashing his current price tag giving him almost 12x value. The last two years in this tournament he has finished 6th and 18th.
DK POINTS RANK: 7th
T2G RANK: 5th
SG: APP RANK: 21st
BRIAN HARMAN (8100 DK / 9800 FD) – Our 5TH guy under the GPP Algo this week is Brian Harman! His ranks don’t blow me away but golf is a volatile sport so don’t focus too much on them. He has put up 78, 101, 75, 65 and 99 DKP over his last 5 events PLUS he has finished in the top 21 here in 4 of the last 5 years. He has finishes of 21st, 20th, 3rd and 11th. He has made 8/9 cuts for 89% with an average finish of 36.8.
DK POINTS RANK: 44TH
T2G RANK: 42ND
SG: APP RANK: 60TH
CAMERON DAVIS (7700 DK / 9300 FD) – He has made 5/6 cuts for 83% with an average finish of 43.2. Cameron Davis jumps off the page at me when looking over the PGA CheatSheet because he ranks a solid 25th in Par 4 scoring and 6th in Par 5 scoring. You don’t need to be accurate on this course but distance will help where he ranks 24th in driving distance with an average drive of 314.1 yards per drive. He has been crushing value putting up 89.5, 75, 86, 118 and 122 DKPs over his last 5. He has finished 29th and 28th here the last two years.
DK POINTS RANK: 2nd
T2G RANK: 30th
SG: APP RANK: 46th
CAMERON TRINGALE (7400 DK / 9000 FD) – He has made 4/6 cuts for only 67% with an average finish of 40.5 but he ranks PHENOMINAL for this course! He is 15th in SG: APP, 10th in P3 scoring, 45th in P4 scoring and 13th in P5 scoring. he has finished 43rd and 51st here the last two years and he has been red hot as of late putting up 106.5, 96.5, 130 and 80.5 DKPs over his last 4!
DK POINTS RANK: 11th
T2G RANK: 32nd
SG: APP RANK: 15th
PETER MALNATI (7200 DK / 8700 FD) – I love golfers that are getting “hot” because it’s a big boost to their confidence and they always seem to play much better. He has made 6/8 cuts for 75% with an average finish of 40.5. Malnati is an excellent Par 4 scorer so he always has a chance to be in the mix. He ranks 9th in birdie percentage on Par 4s with an average of 3.88. Malnati struggles on Par 3 scoring and this course has the two hardest holes as long par 3s. This is my “red flag” for Malnati but he is cheap enough to take the risk in a GPP. He has broke 100 DKPs in 3 of his last 4 events and still has 72 in the other. Still 20th in DKPs.
DK POINTS RANK: 20th
T2G RANK: 84th
SG: APP RANK: 57th
OTHER DARTS TO CONSIDER:
Brendan Steele – Has 5 straight cuts here including a 20th and 6th place finish in the past and coming off 125 DKPs last week sitting in the low 7K range on DK.
Sean O’Hair – Priced at a low 6400 on DK he has finished 9th here twice along with a 50th and 28th. He has put up 67-99 DKPs in 5 straight events. Not a terrible punt play!
Charles Howell – Projected to be lower owned and before last week (94 DKPs) he was under 55.5 DKPs in 5 straight events. He missed the cut last year but prior to that has finished 34th, 20th, 12th and 11th.
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Thanks for reading,