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PGA Breakdown for the Waste Management Open - January 2019!

Farmers Insurance Open Recap

The world’s #1 ranked golfer showed why this past weekend at Torrey Pines. Justin Rose finished at 21 under to win the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego. The narrative that Rose might struggle for a while given he switched clubs coming into the season certainly didn’t hold true. Although he won the tournament by only two strokes over Adam Scott, he was in control of the tournament the entire weekend. His irons were sharp as he finished the week with SG: APP of 4.23 over the three measured rounds. Rose entered the tournament at 12 to 1 odds, the second favorite behind Jon Rahm.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview

The PGA Tour moves to the desert this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It’s commonly known as the biggest party on tour, given the huge crowds that attend the event. It’s always a crazy scene on the par 3 16th hole and fun to watch as you get ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday. It’s another solid field this week as 10 of the top 25 golfers in the world will be teeing it up at TPC Scottsdale. There are 132 players are in the field overall. That’s a little smaller than a normal field, so over half of the players will get to play the weekend.

There is only one course to worry about this week, as all four rounds will be played at TPC Scottsdale. It is a par 71, with three par 5s and four par 3s. It ranked as the 32nd most difficult course (out of 51) on tour last year, averaging 0.68 strokes under par per round. The course measures 7,266 yards and the fairways are just slightly narrower than tour average. However, the rough is not tremendously difficult to navigate. The primary grass on the greens is Bermuda, but they are overseeded with a few other types of grass.

The winning score at this event has been between 14 under and 18 under in 10 of the past 11 years. The outlier was when Phil Mickelson won at -28 in 2013. The winners in the past 4 years are Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama (twice), and Brooks Koepka. All three of those players are obviously tremendous ball strikers. It’s worth noting that while this tournament is generally played in pretty calm conditions, the forecast does call for a little bit of wind this week and some cool temperatures in the morning. It will be interesting to see how that impacts the scoring.

I believe the approach game is going to be very important this week. In looking at past leaderboards, you’ll notice a variety of types of players. However, strong SG: APP stats appear near the top frequently. While I certainly don’t think distance is going to hurt anyone this week, I don’t think it’s a necessity. We’ve also seem some not so great putters perform very well here, so I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on putting either.

Betting Picks:

Tony Finau Winner 20/1 + T5 4/1

Webb Simpson Winner 20/1 + T5 4/1

Lucas Glover Winner 110/1 + T5 22/1

DFS RECAP: I could sit here and tell you about all the great plays we had or I could just tell you about one of our users Bird77 who took down the $100k 3 max for $15,000. When I asked him how he built his lineup he said he looked at the sheet for 5 minutes and put together his line. Boom! Money in the bank! PGA Premium Sheets are starting off on fire! We also have a recent data sheet that breaks down the players recent fantasy points, ratio/value, finishes, driving accuracy, GIR, SG: Putting, SG: OTT, SG: T2G and SG: ATG.

Course Breakdown: Holes that will score the most points that should be focused on are:

Hole #13 – Par 5 – 558 yards – 44.9% Birdie Rate (2.5% Eagle)

Hole #3 – Par 5 – 558 yards – 39.7% Birdie Rate (2.4% Eagle)

Hole #17 – Par 4 – 332 yards – 38.3% Birdie Rate (1.4% Eagle)

Hole #15 – Par 5 – 553 yards – 36.9% Birdie Rate (2.1% Eagle)

Hole #10 – Par 4 – 428 yards – 18.3% Birdie Rate

(*** All other holes blow 18% Birdie Rate. ***)

Focus Areas:

- Driving Distance is a key factor.

- SG: Approach

- SG: Putting

- Par 5 Scoring (550-600)

- Par 4 Scoring.

Golfers to consider for your lineups!

Course Horse: Hideki Matsuyama - $10,700

Course History: W/D – 1st – 1st – 2nd – 4th

He was the top play on our sheet last week and he didn’t disappoint. He took a massive price hike up to the nose bleeds to just under $11k. He comes in as the 3rd highest golfer this week behind Justin Thomas $11,000 and Jon Rahm $11,500. Hideki shreds this course as you can tell from his 4 top 4 finishes in 4 years. The P5: 550-600 will give way to massive scoring with birdie percentage numbers of 44.9%, 39.7% and 36.9% and Hideki ranks 2nd over his last 36 rounds. He also comes in at 13th for his P4: 450-500.

Value Play: Sungjae Im - $7,300

Recent Finishes: 52nd – 12th – 16th

Numbers are decent for the course as he is 38th in the P5: 550, 10th in the P4: 450-500 and 55th in Driving Distance. His last 3 tournaments he has put up 94.5 DK points, 117.5 DK points and 75.5 DK points. He is barely over $7k and crushing 10x value week after week. If his numbers are halfway decent (and they are!) I’m going to ride the hot hand here! I just don’t understand his price tag of $7,300. He was $7.5k then jumped to $8.1k and then down to $7.8 and now down another $500 to $7.3k? I’ll bite!

Sneaky Play: Ryan Palmer - $7,700

Course History: MC – MC – 24th – 2nd – 48th

This guy could be a sneak under the radar play for this week. His numbers fit this course really well with a 37th in the P5: 500, 3rd & 31st in the P4’s for the course, 36th in driving distance and 13th in SG: Approach. He has put up 76 DK points and 92 DK points in his last two tournaments. If he can get hot with the putter (which is where he struggles) he could easily make the cut and hit a 10x value for us. He has a 1.197 SG: App number which is incredible!

Cheap PUNT: Rory Sabbatini - $6,500

Course History: 31st – 22nd – MC

Recent History: 70th – 57th – 33rd

This guy blows my mind – his numbers are typically terrible and he’s always priced at the bottom of the barrel but yet there he is inside the cut line week after week. He is 12th in the P5: 550 scoring over his last 36 rounds and that is excellent for a $6.5k golfer. Let’s take a look at his last 3 tournaments – 82.5 DK points – 112 DK points and 27 DK points. He has the GPP upside but carries a lot of risk but easily a favorite punt for me.

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Putnam - $8,500

I’m torn on this guy. At first glance his numbers are so-so for the course. He doesn’t have distance off the tee as he ranks 98th in driving distance over his last 36 rounds and his P5: 550 scoring rank shows as he is at 114th. Since those are two key factors that will come into play I slid him down the list. Now for the positives… His putter is fire! He is 19th in putting, 23rd in approach, and 33rd and 13th in the P4’s. He is also coming off 80.5 DK points, 115 and 109.5 points in his last 3 tournaments.

2018 WMPO Top Finishers:

1. Gary Woodland – 1st

2. Chez Reavie – 2nd

3. Ollie Schniederjans – T3

4. Brandan Steele – T3

5. Chesson Hadley – T5

6. Matt Kuchar – T5

7. Phil Mickelson – T5

8. Brian Gay – T9

9. Martin Laird – T9

10. Berger / Fowler / Hahn / Kirk / Rahm / Vaughn Taylor – all tied 11th.

CUT MONSTERS: (Golfers who have made 5 cuts in the last 5 years at this tourney!)

1. Hideki Matsuyama – (Cut – 1st, 1st, 2nd and 4th) <Due to his high success rate he comes to the top of the list or us.>

2. Charley Hoffman – (26th, 24th, 51st, 53rd and 61st)

3. Martin Laird – (9th, 7th, 41st, 5th and 19th)

4. Kevin Na – (48th, 16th, 24th, 26th, 19th)

5. Brandon Steele – (3rd, 16th, 17th, 26th and 6th)

HOT GOLFERS TO START THE YEAR: (Golfers who are providing the highest value to salary ratio in January 2019.)

1. Chez Reavie - $8,700 – 126 points & 115 points (120.5 point average)

2. Jason Kokrak - $7,300 – 107.5 points & 89.5 points (98.5 point average)

3. J.T. Poston - $7,300 – 88.5 points, 131 points, 71 points (96.8 point average)

4. Sung Kang - $7,000 – 94 points & 89.5 points (91.8 point average)

5. Joel Dahmen - $6,800 – 87.5 points & 97 points (92.3 point average)

PAR 5 MONSTERS: (Golfers who are ranked high in the last 36 rounds in the P5: 550-600 where there will be a lot of scoring on this course.)

1. Sung Kang

2. Hideki Matsuyama

3. Gary Woodland

4. Bill Horschell

5. Nick Taylor

PAR 4 MONSTERS: (Golfers who ranked high in last 36 rounds for Par 4 scoring.)

1. Jason Kokrak (2nd and 6th)

2. Matt Kuchar (7th & 15th)

3. Jon Rahm (16th & 13th)

4. Joel Dahmen (23rd & 24th)

5. Webb Simpson (9th & 26th)

CONSECUTIVE CUT MONSTERS: (Golfers with the highest consecutive cut streaks.)

1. Gary Woodland – 18 cut streak

2. Tony Finau – 14 cut streak

3. Keegan Bradley – 14 cut streak

4. Andrew Putnam – 13 cut streak

5. Rickie Fowler – 12 cut streak

Thank you for reading and good luck!

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