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PGA Picks & Plays for the WGC Mexico!


PGA Plays & Stats for the WGC Mexico Event from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Let's talk some golf since NBA is on the All-Star break and if you are like me you are going nuts waiting for some good DFS to start up. I was so bored this last week I even started an XFL CheatSheet that I should be able to post this week!


COURSE BREAKDOWN:

Chapultepec is slightly over 7,300 yards but with the altitude it is going to play around 6,700-6,800 yards. The greens are POA. There is nothing fancy or tricky about this course it is just very narrow and bombers are going to have several attempts with the wedge for their next shot. If the golfer can hit his spot he should be in good shape. I'm looking at driving distance, someone decent GIR because we need some accurate bombers and also approach and proximity are always keys on every course. Let's look at some numbers before we dive into the golfers we like for this week!

This scatter plot is from golfdata.org and you can see that the #1 metric is driving distance. most touts are focusing on GIR and approach but driving distance is #1, followed by driving accuracy at #2 and then approach #3.


This is a screen shot from FantasyNational.com. I always look to see where the most birdies are going to come from so I can compare how a golfer is doing on those particular holes and distances. Here we can see the Par 5's a big scoring opportunities and the short par 4s. When looking at stats add in bombers that have some accuracy and solid P5 and short P4 scoring abilities. We have them ranked on our cheatsheet for each category!


2019 WGC - Mexico Finals

Dustin Johnson won by 5 strokes shooting a -21 while Rory shot -16 to hold down 2nd and then there were a group of golfers T3 at -11 (Poulter, Casey & Aphibarnrat). Looking at the true strokes gained ATG really wasn't a factor. That top group of golfers excelled in SG: T2G, SG:Approach and SG: Putting.


Dustin Johnson (11000 DK / 12000 FD)

DJ is a stud and crushes this course. Over the L50 rounds he is #1 in driving distance and #3 in approach from 125-150 yards which are key stats here. He won this even in 2017 with an amazing +3.15 SG:T2G number with a final score of -14, he came back in 2018 and went T7 with a -12 number where his T2G number fell to +0.96 but still a solid performance and then in 2019 he came back and dominated the course with a -21 (5 stroke lead) win! Also notable he was +2.12 SG: Putting and +2.99 SG:T2G. Solid and safe play.


Rory M. (11500 DK / 12200 FD)

Rory comes in #2 in driving distance over the L50 rounds, #6 in GIR and #2 in total proximity. Rory finished 2nd here last year 4 strokes ahead of Ian Poulter with a -16. He was a nice +3.16 SG:T2G and +1.61 SG:OTT for the tourney. He is another accurate long hitter than can rack up some points. His last 5 events he has finsihed T5, T3, 4th, 1st and T3, amazing!


Webb Simpson (9800 DK / 11400 FD)

Webb Simpson won the WMPO and then took 3rd in the Sony Open in Hawaii and his prior 3 finishes are T10, 2nd and T7. He put up 96.5 and 129 DK points in his last two giving up around 10x+ value. He IS NOT a bomber and only ranks 57th in driving distance but I can look past that since he is #2 in DK points over his L50 rounds, #1 in SG: Putting, #1 in P4 scoring and #14 in P5 scoring.


Tommy Fleetwood (9200 DK / 11000 FD)

Huge discount on DK for Mr. Fleetwood. He is coming off a T11 and T2 on the Euro and playing really well. He finished 19th and 14th here the last two years. He ranks 30th in driving distance and 8th SG:T2G. A Cheap option on DK.


Gary Woodland (8300 DK / 10100 FD)

Woodland is always someone to keep an eye on when it comes to a "bombers" course. He is 15th in driving distance, 15th in total proximity and 23rd and 28th in P4 and P5 scoring. He finished 17th and 50th here the last 2 years.


Louis Oosthuizen (8900 DK / 10400 FD)

He has finished 25th and 30th here the last two years. He is only 38th in driving distance but I really like the 13th in GIR and add on the 15th in total proximity, 27th approach and 11th in DK points. He has also been playing on the EURO frequently taking 23rd, 5th and 2nd in his L3.


VALUE GOLFERS, LOW OWNERSHIP and GOOD FORM:

Carlos Ortiz (6600 DK / 8800 FD)

He is our chalk value of the week. With him in the lineups you can really stack up some studs. You can see here that only 6600 on DK is crazy! He is projected to pull about 16% ownership but has 4/5 good turn outs putting up 61.5, 81, a dud and then 105.5 and 59. So he is constantly pushing 10x value with his low salary. He is a salary saver we can use this week! He is also 6th in driving distance his L50 rounds and a solid 22nd in P5 scoring.


Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover are both cheap and have been in solid form and projected at only 1% and 3% ownership. You can see the screen shot above and the left is the most recent tourney working back to the right and this is in terms of DK points. Right far right column is the value in terms of their points put up since January 1, 2020 compared to their current salary and the column next to it which is the 2nd from the right is average points per tourney. I'm looking for players with a consistent output compared to someone who had 100+ and then a couple stinkers in the 30's.


Collin Morikawa & Paul Casey - You can see they have been consistent and in good form but they are projected to pull a much higher ownership at 22% and 26%.


GOLFERS > RANK SG:Putting > POA GREENS > in their L50 Rounds from FantasyNational.


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Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

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