PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
This week I am focusing on the last 36 round stats since we had the COVID break I want to get more of a look at the recent rounds. This week if you are looking at the cheat sheet you will notice some new columns as we added Cut Streak, Cuts Made and Cut %. Since we are still waiting on NBA and MLB to decide what they are going to do I’m going to focus hard on PGA each week and hit on my players and really focus on the players under $8,000.
COURSE:
TPC River Highlands – 6,841 yard – par 70
PAST WINNERS:
Chez Reavie -17 in 2019
Bubba Watson -17 in 2018
Jordan Speith / Daniel Berger -12 in 2017
Russell Knox -14 in 2016
Bubba Watson -16 in 2015
Kevin Streelman -15 in 2014
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU – One of the hottest golfers right now playing at +3.13 strokes better than the average PGA player per round. Recent DK performances are 8 – 3 – 4 – 2 – 2 – 5 (Crushing Top 10 finishes!). Course History: 8 – 9 – 26 – 47 (Four straight cuts and last two were top 10s.) In the first look article I stated we are going to focus on the SG: T2G and SG: Approach. I narrowed down the filtering to last 36 rounds this week since we have had a break and wanted to get more of the recent performances even though some numbers may get skewed. He is 5th in SG: T2G and 26th in SG: Approach over L36 rounds. He is also Top 12 in Par 3, Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. Solid pick for cash games and double ups this week. He is expensive at 11,000 on DK and 11,700 on Fanduel but he is almost a lock for a top 15 finish with a chance to contend. He is also at +9.4 strokes gain T2G over his last 5 rounds which is off-the-charts!
RORY MCILROY – Priced at the highest DK golfer this week Rory is sitting at 11,200. He would be a decent GPP play but for cash games I prefer Bryson DeChambeau. Rory is a stud don’t get me wrong as he has made 8 of 8 cuts and his average finish is 12th place. However, I this price point and his last two finishes at 41st and 32nd that just isn’t enough for me to use in cash games. Rory does have a 12th and 17th place finish here in 2017 and 2018. GPP only.
JON RAHM – Priced at 10,200 on DK and 11,500 on Fanduel he can save you some money off Rory this week. Rahm hasn’t played here in the last 3 years. The greens are a POA/Bentgrass mix and Rahm strives on POA at +0.38 SG putting and +0.25 on Bent. He also crushes easy courses where he sits at +1.82 SG per round on average. Some golfers actually struggle on easier courses and you will see a lower average SG per round. He missed the cut at the Schwab but he did shoot a 69 and a 71 so it’s not like he was in the mid 70’s. Last week he quietly finished 33rd shooting at 71, 67, 66 and 68 and put up 90.5 DK points. Cash or GPP play.
BROOKS KOEPKA – Priced up 1,500 from last week he is sitting at the 10,000 mark on DK and 11,400on Fanduel. Koepka can basically do whatever he wants. If he wants to win he can go compete but if he is just “showing up” for the sponsors he doesn’t usually “go after it” or perform at a high level. Last week we saw him get back on the horse as he finished 7th and shot a 67, 66, 68 and 65 in the final round. He put up a solid 116 DK points for 13.5x value his salary. I like him for GPP because I think most average players will spend up on DeChambeau and leave Brooks at a lower ownership due to his jump in price. GPP play.
WEBB SIMPSON – Priced at a fair 10,500 on DK and 11,600 on Fanduel he broke off the rust last week with a win at the RBC putting up a whopping 145 DK points on the afternoon. He shot a 65, 65, 68 and 64 after missing the cut at the Schwab. Webb is +0.26 SG on POA greens and he is pretty solid across the board. GPP or Cash game.
JUSTIN THOMAS – Priced a 10,800 on DK and 12,000 on Fanduel he is also a solid play. I don’t think you can really go wrong with any of the top golfers over 10k. What I like about Thomas this week is that POA is his best putting greens and he also smashes EASY courses at +1.39 SG per round. Remember we said we were going to focus on SG: T2G this week? Thomas is +6.2 SG: T2G per round over the last 20 rounds of golf. He has played 7 tournaments since January 1 and he has 2 missed cuts (Genesis and Sony) and then he has finished 8 – 10 – 6 – 3 – 1. Solid golfer all the way around, GPP or cash.
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
PATRICK CANTLAY – 12th in DK points, 9th in approach, 18th in GIR and 6th in proximity. Back to back 15th place finishes here the last two years. The bad news is that he has not played since the Genesis back in February so we will see if there is any rust to his game. His last 36 round numbers are stellar in this category. GPP only.
COLLIN MORIKAWA – Ranks 11th in DK points, 1st in approach, 2nd in proximity and 4th in GIR. His SG: T2G is a solid 4th over his last 36 rounds but we can’t forget his SG: Putting ranks 136th in he field this week which is terrible. He continues to be one of the best iron players on the course. I think his price tag at 9100 DK / 10500 FD is fair this week. He finished 64th last week but he started off solid with a 68, 69 and another 68 before shooting a 74 in the final round dropping him down the leaderboard. He is almost a lock to make the cut and give you 8x DK value on his price tag with a chance to content. 13 of 13 cuts made and a 22 cut streak! CASH or GPP.
ABRAHAM ANCER – He is 6th in DK points, 4th in approach, 39th in total proximity and 8th in GIR. His price tag is up to the 9,000 mark on DK and 10,600 on FD. He put up 125.5 DK points last week for 15.7x value and a solid 2nd place finish. Ancer has made 11 of 13 cuts this year and is on an 10 cut streak. He is +4.9 SG: T2G per round over his last 5 rounds and he is +0.54 SG per round on easy courses which is his highest mark.
FADE: DUSTIN JOHNSON – Ranks 104th in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds, 57th in DK points and 131st in SG: Putting. Easy courses are his lowest average SG numbers. His price tag isn’t terrible but just not a favorite play jumping at me this week.
JUSTIN ROSE – Originally, I was going to write him up as a fade but after digging in to write this quick hitter on him I’ve changed my mind. He is 21st in DK points, 32nd in SG: T2G and 35th in SG: Approach and he has put up 100.5 and 114 DK points over his last two weeks with a 14th place finish at the RBC and then a 3rd place at the Schwab. 9,200 on DK just feels way to cheap for him with that kind of production. GPP or Cash.
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
PAUL CASEY – His stats are jumping out all over the place for this course but he hasn’t played since the WGC in February so that worries me because we have seem some horrible outings the first time back. Webb Simpson RBC…. *cough *cough.
His finishes here the last 5 years is CRAZY! He has a 5th – 2nd – 5th – 17th – 2nd, that is four top 5 finishes in 5 years. Might be rusty but he obviously likes the course! GPP Play.
BUBBA WATSON – His stats aren’t amazing over his last 36. He is only around the +0.50 SG on easy courses as compared to +1.2 on difficult courses. His numbers are not great with 67th in DK points, 101st in Proximity and only 51st in T2G. However, I can look past all those stats when I see someone who likes a specific course. Bubba has finished 54th – 1st – Cut – 25th – 1st in the last 5 years. He has TWO WINS here so I can’t put him down as a fade. He has only made 8 of 11 cuts for 73% so there is some risk so this is a GPP only.
FADE: JORDAN SPIETH – He is my fade for this price range of all the golfers. He is 101st in DK points, 125th in T2G and 133rd in Proximity and a horrible 134th in Par 4 scoring. He was cut here last year but won it 3 years ago when he was decent. Spieth always has that round that kills him. He shot a 75 last week in R3 knocking him down to 68th and he doesn’t have may low rounds to give him the boost we need for DK points. I’m not a fan and he won’t be in my player pool this week.
VALUE PLAY: GARY WOODLAND – Priced at 8300 on DK and 10k on Fanduel his price is really low for DK. I don’t think Woodland is going to win but making the cut and return value – YES! He has 4 straight cuts and 9 of 10. He is also 7th in DK points, 28th in T2G, 8th in Approach and Top 20 in Par 3, Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. He hasn’t played here since 2016 where he took 38th and 2015 he finished 20th. Woodland also has 3 top 12 finishes in his last 4 played events. I think a 10x value for DK is easy this week. We need 83 DK points for a whopping 10x value and he has put up 80, 86, 71, 80 and 82 in his recent events. Even last week at RBC he only finished 62nd but put up 79.5 DK points.
VALUE PLAY: MATTHEW FITZPATRICK – Now this kid is fun to watch! He has 19 straight cuts made and 8 of 8 for the year and priced at only 8100 on DK and 9900 on FD. He is still finding his way so his numbers aren’t the best, but they are decent. 40th in DK points, 39th in T2G and 41st in Approach is a solid range to be in for this price tag. He put up 103 DK points at the RBC for a 14th place finish. Prior to last week he has been between 59.0 – 73.5 DK points which is giving you solid value. He hasn’t performed nearly as well on difficult courses but Easy – Average he has had great success.
SNEAKY GPP ONLY: MARC LEISHMAN – He came in and played the Schwab where he shot a 69 and a 72 and missed the cut putting up a horrible 35.0 DK points. Let’s hope that got the rust out and he can come back strong. He is 8000 on DK and 9800 on FD. He ranks 29th in DK points, 21st in T2G and 7th in Approach over his last 36 rounds. He has had great success here finishing 21st last year, cut in 2018 and then 17th, 9th and 39th place. He also does well on easy courses. I just don’t know how to rank these players who are coming back after a long covid layoff and showed a bunch of rust. GPP only.
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
VIKTOR HOVLAND – 27th in DK points, 11th in T2G and 4th in approach over the last 36. He is also stellar in all the proximity numbers as he ranks 10th in overall proximity, 7th in 150-175, 5th in 175-200 and 51st in 200+. He is only a solid 27th in Par 4 scoring. He took 54th here last year. He finished 23rd at the Schwab and 21st at the RBC for 70.5 and 102 DK points. He also came in 8th in a custom model I ran on Fantasy National. He is also +1.37 SG on easy courses and was +4.1 in T2G last week.
JOAQUIN NIEMANN – He took 5th here last year and is coming off a 5th and 32nd place finish in his last two tournaments. He has solid proximity numbers, 34th in DK points, 17th in approach and T2G. He put up a whopping 118.5 DK points last week at the RBC shooing 4 amazing rounds of 69, 68, 63 and a 65 on Sunday. He had a shot to compete at the end. He is coming around and has a great ceiling!
JOEL DAHMEN – Dahmen is red hot right now shooting +2.24 strokes per round better than the average golfer on tour. He has made 13 of 15 cuts for 87% cut rate. He is 36th in DK points, 8th in T2G and 10th in approach. While he struggles at Par 5 scoring at 129th he makes up for it being 5th at Par 4 scoring and 16th in Par 3 scoring. He has made his last 8 cuts in a row and has put up 80+ DK points at the Schwab and RBC finishing 19th and 48th. 6 of those 8 rounds were 68 or better!
IAN POULTER – Poulter is priced to low in my opinion, he should be an 8500 range golfer. That just means we will gladly play him at the 7800 on DK and 9600 on FD. He is 13th in DK points, 37th in approach, 69th in T2G and 17th in Par 4 scoring and 13th in Par 5 scoring. Some of his other stats are high but we are only looking at 36 rounds so we are going to get some crazy numbers. He is playing +1.70 strokes better than the average golfer over his last 20 rounds. He is also coming off a 14th at the RBC for 106 DK points and a 29th at the Schwab for 74.5 DK points. He has 5 rounds in a row 69 or lower. His ceiling is around 100 DK points. He just seems like a lock for cash games at this price point.
MAX HOMA – So this week I added a recent grade rating of the last 20 rounds that gauges players from “Hot”, “Good”, “Average”, “Below Avg” down to “Cold”. Max Homa came up at “Hot” so I wanted to dig into him a little more. He is priced at only 7000 on DK and 8800 on FD. I was hoping he would make the below 7k guys but he is right on the line. He has 11 of 13 cuts made for 85%, ranks 24th in DK points, 70th in T2G and 56th in approach. He has played here twice and missed the cut both times. However, he has a string that is amazing for a 7000 player on DK. He put up 86.5 for 41st place at the RBC shooting all 4 founds in the 60’s. He missed the cut at the Schwab but he was close shooting a 70 and a 69. Then his prior finishes in order are 24th, 5th, 14th, 6th, 9th and 48th. In those he put up the following DK points (now remember 8x on his salary we only need 56 points, 9x is 63 points and a whopping 10x is 70 poins) 53, 90, 99, 100, 85, 107. Those are some great numbers! That is GPP winning upside if you have a 7k guy dropping 100 DK points. Put him in your player pool and mix him into some lines!
GOLFERS UNDER 7,000: “DARTS – JUST NEED THEM TO MAKE THE CUT!”
PATRICK RODGERS – He has made 14 of 19 cuts and ranks 32nd in DK points, 14th in Par 4 scoring and has done really well here. He didn’t play in 2018 but the prior 4 years he put up a 26th, 35th, 3rd and 39th place finish. Lower upside than the players listed below but he did take 14th at the Schwab and put up 83 DK points. He missed the cut last week at the RBC after putting up a 67 in R1. His ceiling is sitting around upper 80’s over the last year.
CARLOS ORTIZ – 14th in DK points, 33rd in T2G and 32nd in approach. He shit the bed at the Schwab in round 2 putting up a 75 putting him past the cut line and finishing with a horrible 25 DK points. However, he did shoot a 69 in the first round which was solid. He also came back last week at the RBC and put up a 69, 67 and a 63 before shooting a 73 on Sunday. That was good for 102.5 DK points and 33rd place. He is another boom or bust guy below 7000 on DK that you can use in your player pool. I like him because he does have the rounds to go low and rack up some DK points. He also has a string of 98, 131, 59 and 106 DK points last year.
CAMERON CHAMP – He has made 9 of 12 cuts while ranking 18th in DK points, 22nd in T2G and 34th in Par 4 scoring. The rough area of his game is 88th in Approach, 97th in putting and 102nd in proximity. However, we are talking about a guy that is only 6800 on DK and 8700 on FD so we don’t expect Justin Thomas stats. We have to ask ourselves, “Can he make the cut?” He is coming off a 14th place finish at the Schwab where he put up 86.5 DK points and in that tourney he shot a 66, 71, 65 and a 68. The juice is worth the squeeze!
MATTHEW NESMITH – I had him last week and he started off hot and continued to make the cut but did not compete. He is only 6600 on DK and 8300 on FD. What I like is he is 23rd in DK points, 36th T2G and 11th in Approach. He has also played 2 tournaments after the COVID stoppage and put up 89.5 DK points for 33rd place at the RBC and then 70.5 at the Schwab. Both well over 10x value. If he makes the cut again he can easily help your lineups if you want to load up some studs!
DEEP DIVE: DOC REDMAN – 6700 on DK and 8100 on FD is a little more than I want to spend on him but he is worth a look. He has made 13 of 17 cuts for 76%. He is also 47th in DK points, 29th in T2G, 21st in approach and 14th in proximity. He has solid proximity numbers across the board. He put up 94.5 DK points last week at the RBC and finished 21st. He was priced at only 6400 and returned 14.8x value and even after shooting a first round 72 he came back with rounds of 66, 65 and 67.
DEEP DIVE: HARRY HIGGS – Put on your scuba mask we are getting deep here! Harry Higgs at only 6400 on DK and 8100 on FD. I’m not going to give you ranks because they suck. I mean he is almost min priced on DK. So why are we even looking at him? He has made 13 of 17 cuts for a 76% cut rate and he is 30th in DK points over his last 36 rounds. He also has a solid streak of cuts 7 in a row! He put up a 70.5 DK point performance at the RBC taking 52nd place and putting up 3 rounds in the 60’s. Prior to that at the Schwab he put up 73 DK points with 2 rounds in the 60’s for 38th place.
Thanks for reading,
Haze