PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We return to Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament. The course this week will play harder than it did last week. The last I heard is that they were going to let the rough grow up taller so that will penalize more missed fairway tee shots and the greens were going to be firm and fast. The pin locations will also be in a more difficult spot on the green than last week. However, we have a loaded field this week!
COURSE:
Muirfield Village Golf Club – Par 72 – 7400ish yards depending on pin locations with Bentgrass greens.
PAST WINNERS:
2019: Patrick Cantlay -19 2018: Bryson DeChambeau -15 2017: Jason Dufner -13 2016: William McGirt -15 2015: David Lingmerth -15 2014: Hideki Matsuyama -13 2013: Matt Kuchar -12 2012: Tiger Woods -9
RESEARCHING PLAYERS:
When you are looking at players there are several factors to consider. You can look at things such as course history, how a golfer does on a certain type of course, recent finishes, recent DK point performances, a strokes gained approach for key stats to the course and recent scores. The main things I look for are key rank stats for a certain course, DK value return per current salary over the recent 4-6 tournaments and course history with recent finishes. I start there and start putting together a player pool and then slowly cross people off or add people as the week goes on. This article is just a few of the first looks guys that I’m looking into for this week. If you want to dig deeper you can look at how the golfer are putting on the current green type vs. all others (i.e. Bentgrass vs. POA & others). How thick will the rough be? How is a more accurate golfer? If the golfer is not accurate is he good at scrambling? If there are a lot sand traps like this week and his proximity numbers and approach numbers are horrible then he should be good around-the-green and in sand saves.
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (11,100 DK / 12,000 FD) – The highest priced guy in the field this week at 11,100 on DK and 12,000 on Fanduel. He has been on fire playing 3.16 strokes better per round than the average golfer. I won’t spent a lot of time on Bryson because everyone knows who he is and what he is capable of doing. Over the last 36 rounds he is 2nd in DK points, 4th in T2G, 27th in approach, 7th in putting and 3rd and 4th in Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. You can’t go wrong starting a lineup out with Bryson. In his last 4 events he has put up 146, 103, 99 and 100 DK points giving you a solid floor.
RORY MCILROY (10,700 DK / 11,800 FD) – He is a safe option on the high end. He hasn’t been lighting things on fire but he has been a safe player. He has put up 105, 79 and 73 DK points since the return to golf which isn’t great for his salary but prior to the layoff he had 73, 102, 92 and 107 DK points. I don’t mind using him for GPPs but probably won’t in cash because I need more upside from someone that is 10,700 on DK and 11,800 on Fanduel. Depending on ownership looking at him for GPP only.
COLLIN MORIKAWA, DUSTIN JOHNSON & JUSTIN THOMAS – All of these guys have a ceiling since the return between 132-135 DK points and they have all missed 1 cut. Justin Thomas missed cut at Travelers, Dustin Johnson missed the Charles Schwab and Morikawa also missed the Travelers. You are fine to use any of these guys but none of them are blowing my socks off. There is so much value on the mid-range that I will likely only have 1 upper tier stud this week and if I can fit Bryson that is where I’m headed. For GPP entries I’m looking at whoever is the lowest owned in this range. If it’s Dustin Johnson I’d be happy with that as he show a -6 and -9 at the Travelers and looked really good.
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
PATRICK CANTLAY (9800 DK / 11,600 FD) – I could write about the guys in this range all day, they are all studs and have a ton of upside. I will go right back to Patrick Cantlay this week as he has dominated this course and tourney finishing 1st, 4th and 35th the last 3 years. He got off to a slow start last week showing -2 through the first 2 rounds but then he went nuts in the 4th round and shot -7. He was on pace to set the course record before a few missed shots and a bogey on the 18th. Course horse with solid stats and he has put up 97 and 104 DK points in his two tournaments since the return.
VIKTOR HOVLAND (9500 DK / 11,100 FD) – I love this kid! I had him locked in 102 lineups last week (along with Cantlay) and if he would of got a win I would of turned a nice profit on DK. So what can we say about Hovland? In his last 5 he has finished 3rd, 12th, 11th, 21st, 23rd and 42nd while putting up a massive 120, 95, 100 and 102 DK points across his last 4. I don’t think he is going to compete for a win here with this star studded field but a top 15 or top 10 finish isn’t out of the question. What is the most impressive is he has played 16 rounds of golf since the return and has only been a par or worse one time. So 94% of the time he is shooting below par. He put up solid numbers last week with a -3, -5 and -6 in the first three rounds and then the pressure got to him and he finished at -1 on the final round. Since the return he is averaging -3.13 shots below par per round and that is better than Justin Thomas, Rory, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay. Love me some Hovland!
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (9400 DK / 10,900 FD) – I didn’t have much Hideki last week and after the tourney started I started pulling numbers for my showdown lineups and he was popping out all over the place. He shot -9 through rounds 1 and 2 and then fell off with a par and +1 in the final two rounds. I didn’t see him specifically but I’m assuming he was taking some high risk shot to try and move up the leaderboard and make a run. He is someone great to use in a showdown because he has some monster rounds (shot -7 in round 3 at the Rocket Mortgage). He doesn’t have the upside as Hovland but has put up 82 and 90 DK points in his last two for a solid return. He also has solid finishes here putting up a 6th, 13th, 45th, missed cut and a 5th place over the last 5 years.
JON RAHM (9300 DK / 11,400 FD) – This might be my GPP play this week depending on what the ownership looks like on Wednesday morning. Rahm has been struggling and he is priced down to 9300 on DK which I believe was the 10th golfer from the top. He has only put up 86, 76, 90.5 and a 25.5 DK points missed cut since the return. However, he still ranks 2nd in par 3 scoring, 20th in par 4 and 9th in par 5 scoring. He also shot a monster -8 in the final round here last week. Now he started off rough with a par, -2 and +3 but then finished strong with a -8 and dominated the course. If he found his groove he could start hot next week and priced this low that is a great GPP play on DK.
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
DANIEL BERGER (8700 DK / 10,200 FD) – Great for cash games and I think he will be very high owned so careful if you are using him in GPPs. He hasn’t played the last 3 weeks but he has played twice since the return to golf. In those two he put up a massive 124 and 119.5 DK points and now he is priced under 9k? Berger is playing +2.93 strokes better per round than the average golfer, he has 8 straight cuts and 10 of 11 on the year. What else do I like about Berger? How about 11th in DK points, 16th in T2G, 27th in approach, 10th in putting, 9th in BOB%, 19th in GIR, 1st in scrambling, 1st in Par 3 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring and not a terrible 45th in Par 5 scoring. Stat monster!
ABRAHAM ANCER (8500 DK / 9900 FD) – Another guys priced really low is Ancer. He is a bit more of a wild card with some ups and downs but he has been pretty solid since the return. He finished 65th and 57th here the last two years so not great finishes but at least he made the cut. His last 3 played events he finished 11th, 2nd and 14th. He is also a stat monster with 7th in DK points, 12th in T2G, 15th in approach, 16th in BOB%, 13th in GIR, and in his Par3, 4 and 5 scoring he is 3rd, 8th and 49th. He has also put up 102, 125.5 and 82 DK points in his last 3 events. His last tournament was the Travelers and he shot -3, -5, -4 and finished with a -1. 8 of his 10 rounds since the return have been par or better.
PATRICK REED (8400 DK / 10,000 FD) – I am hoping that Reed is one of the lower owned guys this week since he hasn’t really been tearing it up. Reed has 3 top 30 finishes here in 4 years and the other year he finished 57th. He is someone that can make the cut, rack up some points and if he gets hot he could make a run. He is 14th in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 5 scoring and 2nd in BOB%. Reed will usually go for 10x value or miss the cut. He has put up 70, MC, 86, MC and 116 DK points since the return and he is priced down to 8400. 84 DK points is 10x value. In February he put up 132 DK points giving you a monster ceiling!
GARY WOODLAND (8600 DK / 10,100 FD) – This is another GPP play. I watched him quite a bit last week and he went from almost missing the cut to a T5 finish. How did he get there? He started off shooting +1 and then had to shoot a -4 to get under the cut line. He rocked it in round 3 with a -6 and then a solid -3 on the final day. He finished with 101 DK points. He has played here each of the last 4 years and finished 52nd, 23rd, 49th and 4th place. He is top 25 in Par 3, 4 and 5 scoring and great off the tee he only struggles with his approach shots. At least he got to play 4 rounds here last week so should get a good feel for the course. Good GPP flier!
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
IAN POULTER (7600 DK / 9300 FD) – How did they priced him at only 7600 on DK after what he did there last week? He will be high owned in GPP or at least he should be after shooting -12 last week across 4 rounds. He shot -4, -3, -3 and -2 on the final round to a solid finish. Poulter has been at par or better in 10 of his 12 rounds since returning and he is on a 12 cut streak. Do we even need to go into stats for him? Ok fine! 15th in DK points, 6th in approach, 4th in putting, 21st in BOB%, 22nd in Par 4 scoring and 11th in Par 5 scoring. He has put up 101, 70, 106 and 75 DK points in his last 4 tournaments giving him great value and a solid cut streak to ride.
DOC REDMAN (7600 DK / 9100 FD) – Before I looked at any stats I just started to put down Doc Redman and said, “We have to talk about Doc!”. So Doc played the Charles Schwab right after the break and show -3 in round 1 and followed that up with par, +3 and par. Nothing exciting there. After taking a week off he came back at the Travelers and shot -2, -3, -1 and -7 and then followed that up the following week with a -7, -2, -2 and -2. His last 8 rounds of golf have been at -1 or lower. He has also put up 89, 93, and 95 DK points in his last 3 events. I believe his cut streak is 5 and he is 15 of 19 on the season. He does struggle a little in the par 5 scoring (77th) but he is decent Par 4 (36th) and Par 3 (42nd). He is also 12th in approach, 22nd in BOB% and 18th in GIR. His proximity numbers are solid at 20th overall and then breaking down the individual proximity differences on the sheet he is 25th, 5th, 5th, and 35th. He was cut here 2 years ago and didn’t play last year. He has 3 straight top 21 finishes.
KEVIN STREELMAN (7600 DK / 9300 FD) – This pricing is also horrible for DK. This guy crushes the course! Over the last 5 years he has finished 4th, 44th, 13th, 8th and 18th and he is coming off a T7 finish here last week. My god DK 7600? I was thinking for sure mid 8000’s. Oh well I guess that is good for us. Let me give you a word of warning, I’m going to tell you good things about Streelman but be careful and don’t “lock him in”. He is playing over his head right now and playing way over his normal baseline. So if he shot +4 and missed the cut this week I wouldn’t be shocked. With that out of the way he is 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 24th in DK points and 19th in BOB%. After the layoff he had two missed cuts and then caught fire putting up 89 and 114 DK points. Strokes gained stats he worried me last week so I kept fading him in my showdowns and he cost me a win with his incredible putting. I ended up taking 3rd place but the first place guy had Streelman who exploded for that -8 round (R2). 86% of his rounds since the return are at -1 or better and 5 of his last 8 rounds are -3 or better (great for showdowns!). He is shooting at average of -2.71 per round which is phenomenal in this price range and also the lowest (Paul Casey is #2 at -2.50, just FYI.).
LUCAS GLOVER (7100 DK / 8700 FD) – Love me some Glover! I almost didn’t see him on the list because he was priced so low. So this guy put up 89, 90 and 88 DK points across his last 3 contest. So if he was priced at 9000 that would give us a solid 10x return which is amazing for DFS, but he is priced at only 7100 so we only need 71 points for 10x and anything else is icing on the cake! He has a solid 79% of rounds below par or better since the return of golf. His last 8 rounds of golf look like this: -5, -2, -1, -5 and then the prior week -4, -2, +1 and finished it off with a beautiful -7. He has also done well in this tourney finishing 52nd, 52nd, 45th, 33th and 68th in the last 5 years. His last 4 tournaments he has played he has finished top 25 in all of them. He isn’t going to compete for a win in this field but if we can make the cut and put a top 25 that would give us great value for our lineups!
KEEGAN BRADLEY (7200 DK / 8500 FD) – This will be one of my GPP darts if the ownership is low on him. So why you ask? Keegan is 102nd in DK points, 129th in putting and 119th in BOB%. He has also missed the cut here in 2 of the last 3 years. So I’m hoping this keeps his ownership low and allows me to use him as a punt. In 3 of the last 5 years he has also finished 23rd, 8th and 8th. He is coming off 39th and 45th place finishes putting up 81 and 84 DK points. His “Scott Score” for the tourney was 4th best behind Thomas, Morikawa and Hovland. The main difference was that he was -1.72 SG: Putting. He was strong everywhere else but can’t putt to save his life. Now with that being said he still shot -3, -1, +2 and -2 to play all 4 rounds. That’s pretty impressive thinking any of those rounds you could give him +2 strokes to get him close to field average and that would of put him around -5, -3, par and -4. 79% of his rounds have been under par since the return. GPP only, not cash.
GOLFERS UNDER 7,000: “DARTS – JUST NEED THEM TO MAKE THE CUT!”
HENRICK NORLANDER (6300 DK / 7700 FD) – This field is so stacked that anyone below 7k on DK is more than just a dart, I wouldn’t slide below this mark unless you really need too. Norlander has 86% of his rounds below par since the return. He also played last week and shot a decent -6 for the tourney. He went -2, -3, -1 and par. The most impressive thing is that he hasn’t shot OVER PAR since the return. He has 2 rounds at par but nothing at +1 or higher. He is shooting an average of -2.07 per round and all 14 rounds have been PAR or lower. He did shoot -5, -2, -3 and -4 at the Rocket Mortgage. He has also put up 71, 89 and 71 DK points. He is 11th in Par 5 scoring and coming off 31st, 12 and 41st place finishes. Don’t expect much but if you need a punt I think he has a good shot at making the cut in this stacked field!
TALOR GOOCH (6500 DK / 7800 FD) – He put up a solid 80 DK points last week and shot a -1, -4, -1 and -3. He was +1.55 SG on approach and +1.76 SG T2G for the tourney which is solid. He struggled with the putter in R3 and a little in R4 but his price is low enough if he can make the cut he will give us plenty of value. He is coming off a good week with good stats but there is some risk here so only use him in GPPs when you are cramming in your studs. Only 73% of his rounds are below par but he has made 14 of 18 cuts on the season.
TROY MERRITT (6600 DK / 8100 FD) – Merritt is someone that I pinned last week and wanted to put in my article for this week. He played here last week and finished with +1.75 SG approach and +1.46 SG T2G. He shot -3 in the opening around, par in the second round to get him under the cut line by a stroke and then a solid -5 in round 3 and finished off the tourney with an even par. He has had 61% of his rounds go under par since the return to golf so he is a little up-and-down. At the Travelers he shot -4, -5, -5 and -1 for a solid finish but the week prior started off a -2 and -6 and then went +2 and +2. He is someone that can score DK points and that is what we need for GPPs. If you have two guys both finish even par you would rather have the guy with 9 birdies and 9 bogeys vs. the guy with 18 pars. He gives you a little bit of a safer floor than Gooch. He has put up 72, 102, 75 and 66 DK points in his last 4. If he makes the cut he gives you value.
CHEZ REAVIE (6700 DK / 8300 FD) – Let’s hit on one more punt guy for your GPPs. He finished T17 here last week and has put up 78, 67 and 60 DK points in his last 3 giving us great value on his already low salary. Chez doesn’t have very good stats because he is up and down quite a bit. Last week he finished strong shooting a -5 in the final round and finished the tournament with a +0.58 in approach and +1.48 in T2G. He shot 4 rounds of -2, par, -2 and -5. Remember he was right at the cut line after the second round so he easily could of missed the cut.
NEW SHEET PREVIEWS:
I wanted a sheet to track the scores each golfer had per round so I could see what their average is, how much they are over or under par and if they have any kind of a streak. It also helps for "showdown slates" knowing if a golfer is bouncing back strong and starts or finishes a tournament strong. Here is a screen shot of it:
In the screen shot above you can determine if a player is up and down throughout the tournament or if they are just pounding out low scores. Also it helps me find "showdown slate" players. If someone is putting up 4 rounds a week of -1 or -2 they are not likely someone I want to use for a showdown. If they are putting up -1, +2, -7 then that is someone I want to mix into my player pool and hope for that -7. This sheet was new this week and I'm sorting it by average strokes per round and using that as a starting point when filling in my lineups.
This sheet is what I call a simple "Player Tracker". Since I play 99% on Draftkings they are all based on DK points scored at each tournament. I use this to determine the DK value over recent tournaments based on their current salary. You can see that I put a clear break in the sheet when covid shut everything down. This helps greatly for GPPs.
In the screenshot above you can see the bottom player, Rickie Fowler, had 2 missed cuts when they returned from the layoff and then took a week off and had two solid weeks after getting the rust out. I also use the columns in the middle to determine DK average points and then calculate it based on their salary to see what the recent performance has looked like. I've always used this sheet but didn't start posting it until this week to see if our members like it as another helpful tool.
Thanks for reading,
Haze