MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP OF YESTERDAY: I’ll keep this short since we have a big article and big slate tonight. The Good - Flaherty at 8600 crushed it for us! The Bad – Wojjy only made in around 4 innings and gave up a run an inning. We got 8 runs out of the Cardinals and 8 runs out of the Dodgers but only a few out of the BoSox! Let’s look at tonight!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
LANCE LYNN (11700) – With all of the variance today I see why Lynn is Verlander priced. He has a cake matchup vs. DET. In his last 6 starts he has pushed 40 DK points twice with a 39.6 and 37 point outing. His last two were 28 and 26 DK points giving you a good floor but again you’re paying for it. DET has a great BVP of hitting .371 off Lynn with 62 Abs so that does worry me but they are only hitting .230 as a team over the last week and Lynn has been a completely different pitcher this year. He has a home xFIP of 3.71 with a 1.29 whip and allowing a .273 average. Price seems high but compared to other options he may garner some ownership tonight.
MIKE CLEVINGER (11100) – Tougher matchup vs. LAA but he has been super consistent with 27, 23, 35, 18 and 33 DK points in his last 5 starts. He has also only allowed 1, 3, 1, 1 and 0 ER in those starts and put up a nice 7, 7, 12, 6 and 9 strikeouts. His home stats are great as he has a 17.0% swinging strike rate this year, his home ERA is 0.78 (although his xFIP is 1.68 at home) and he has a massive 15.7 K9 ratio at home with a microscopic 0.83 whip and allowing a low .152 batting average. CLE also has the #2 bullpen behind him (since July 1st) so they can hold down the win.
STEVEN MATZ (7700) – Sliding down the price scale is Steven Matz. He is coming off facing PIT at home and put up 40 DK points going a complete 9.90 innings with 0 ER and 7 Ks. WOW! However he is facing them on the road tonight. PIT is only hitting .237 over the last week but they manage 4.7 runs per game. Great BVP history as they are only hitting .213 off Matz through 47 team Abs. PIT is also 1-9 in their L10 games.
JASON VARGAS (7400) – Vargas is a great GPP play. He has 15, 31 and 16 DK points in his last 3 starts. He gives you a solid floor of 2x with a little room for upside. Now playing for Philly I won’t focus on split stats. His overall ERA is 4.01 with a 5.22 xFIP but he is only allowing a .228 batting average to opponent hitters generating a ton of soft contact. Matchup is great as CHW are averaging 2.0 runs per game and hitting only .213 over the last week and rank dead last in our L10 game power rankings.
TREVOR WILLIAMS (7200) – Not a huge fan but I can see the play. He is cheap and coming off 2.7 and 2.9x value returns in his last two starts which were 19 and 20 DK points. He has great BVP numbers as NYM are only hitting .235 off him but it’s only 34 team Abs. He has a decent 11.9% swinging strike rate and although his home ERA is 5.71 his xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and it should be closer to 4.17. There is a lot of risk here but worth putting in your player pool.
IVAN NOVA (7000) – Here is your other GPP option. He has 4.7 and 6.6x value in his last two starts and those were good for 32 and 23 DK points. In those two starts he totaled 15.0 innings, only 1 ER and 9 Ks. Both of those were at home and he is on the road tonight. Either he has turned a corner and figured something out or he is just much better at home. The numbers indicate he is much better at home but I’m willing to fire him up and give him a road start. But this is only in GPPs because there are red flags. PHI is hitting .300 as a team over the last week and scoring 5.5 runs per game. However they do strikeout at a 26.0% clip at home which is really high.
PUNT: PETER LAMBERT (5200) – If you love an expensive stack and want a clear punt play then I think we can look at Lambert at only $5.2k. He has put up 11, 16 and 12 DK points in his last 3 starts so we can look for 2x from a punt then he is your guy. His home starts he has went from -8 to 15 DK points so there is a range here but facing SF who is hitting .239 over the last week scoring only 3.2 runs per game I’ll take a shot. Usually teams the first night in Colorado struggle with altitude as we saw with the Dodgers.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
Boston & NYY – When these teams face each other it is fireworks so I’m good with either team. Right now NYY are projected at 5.5 and Boston 5.0 runs. However Boston is the hotter team right now hitting .327 as a team over the last week and scoring 6.5 runs per game. NYY are hitting .260 as a team and scoring 5.6 runs per game. NYY pricing is stupid cheap tonight (surprisingly) as you can stack the 5 highest priced hitters for only 4100 (usually 4800-5100). E-Rod is decent but not lights out and I think DK severely underpriced the NYY tonight. E-Rod struggles vs. LHH as he has a 7.14 ERA / .337 wOBA and 1.28 whip against them. His road xFIP is 4.29 with a 1.39 whip and allowing a .270 average. NYY s. LHP have a wRC+ of 136.0 (which is awesome!) and a .618 OBP+ISO number which is also solid. Their K% vs. RHP is 24.8% but vs. LHP it drops down to 21.9%. BOSTON – They crush Paxton hitting him at a .312 clip through 77 team Abs. Boston is hot right now and they also only strikeout 19.6% of the time vs. LHP. Paxton has rockstar stats but has been struggling lately. He just gave up 7 ER in 4.0 innings @ BOS and is now facing them again at home. BoSox are expensive at 4980 average for the 5 highest priced hitters. J.D. Martinez is 4800 and has a .518 wOBA vs. LHP, 227.8 wRC+ and he is already hitting .462 off Paxton and is 6 for 13 with only 2 Ks!
ATLANTA – Projected at only 4.8 runs they may slide under the radar tonight. They are scoring 7.3 runs per game and hitting .292 over the last week as a team. They have won 3 straight games and 18-12 in their L30. They are facing Alex Wood who will be on a pitch count since coming off the IL and then they get the 27th ranked bullpen since July 1st. ATL has great BVP off Wood hitting .382 through 55 team Abs and only striking out 13% of the time. Freddie Freeman is 5k but he is 7 for 16 of Wood hitting .438 in the heart of the lineup and he is hot right now!
TEXAS – Don’t mind Texas but they are chalking projected at 5.9 runs so I won’t waste time on them. Hitting .306 over the last week and scoring 5.6 runs per game facing Tyler Alexander and the 19th ranked bullpen.
HOUSTON – Love some Astros tonight! My largest bet on my Vegas trip was Houston to win the World Series and now they acquired Greinke I’m pumped for the run! Houston is #1 in our L10 game power rankings, everyone is finally healthy and they are scoring 5.0 runs per game over the last week and hitting .264 as a team. They are facing Kikuchi who has a lower 9.6% swinging strike rate, 5.06 xFIP on the road and allowing a 1.52 whip with a .285 batting average… eeeek! They are expensive sitting at a 5040 average for the 5 highest priced hitters so you have to pick and choose your stack but you can get that down to around 4600 pretty easy spreading out the lineup. Houston at home has a wRC+ of 144.7 with a whopping .620 OBP+ISO number and lower 21.4% strikeout rate!
MINNY – I live in KC and I love Sparkman but his home/road numbers are significant. At home (which he is on the road tonight) he has a 3.00 ERA / 1.12 whip / .244 allowed batting average, pretty solid! But on the road he has a 8.73 ERA (xFIP is even 6.59) and a 1.88 whip and allowing a .347 batting average, yuck! Plus Minny needs this game as they are in a heated race with Cleveland getting hot!
QUICK NOTES ON OTHER STACKS:
L.A. DODGERS – They are cheaply priced as the top 5 are at 4660 per player and if you leave off BellyBombs you can get them down to 4280 which is ridiculous for the Dodgers who are 41-14 at home. They do struggle vs. LHP as their wRC+ drops from 113.7 down to 76.8 so be careful! They are scoring a whopping 5.7 runs per game over the last week but only hitting .223 as a team. Lauer has a low 8.6% swinging strike rate and struggles vs. LHH and the Dodgers are freaking loaded with power LHH!
ARIZONA – If you want a cheap punt stack then look at the Diamondbacks tonight as their top 5 highest priced hitters are only 4380 per player on average and that drops to 4180 if you leave off the top guy and if you leave off the top 2 guys you can do a 5 man Zona stack for only 3960 per player. Joe Ross has a 9.85 ERA – 5.42 xFIP with a 2.11 whip and allowing a .361 batting average in 25ish innings this year. Cheap GPP if you want stud pitching!
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