MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
Luis Castillo (11,200) – Top end today for the main slate and worth the price. He has 40 DK point upside and a solid 2-2.5x floor. He is coming off a game giving up 3 ER but he went 6.0 with 10 Ks for 25.5 points. His prior start before the All Star break he went 7.2 and tossed a 1 hitter with 9 Ks vs. MIL for 36.85 points. STL team BVP are also only 8 for 46 hitting .174 off him with a massive 43% strikeout rate. Castillo also has a solid split at home he supports a 1.69 ERA, allowing a low .209 wOBA and 0.88 whip and .146 batting average.
Kershaw (11,000) – I don’t mind him as a pivot but is sitting in the 25 DK point range and rarely hitting that 35-40 point upside. Since May 3rd his highest output is 28.75 DK points and for GPP you really need 3x-5x upside. He is great for cash but won’t use for GPP.
Gio Gonzales (8300) – He is our wildcard today. Facing an ARI team that has a team strikeout rate jump from 19.6% up to 24.5% vs. LHP. He is priced fair and has a shot at the win.
Miles Mikolas (7700) – We save a ton of money dropping down into this range and Miko is coming off a nice 30.45 DK point start going a complete game with 0 ER. Huge upside. His prior 4 starts he has ranged between 9-22 points. Most of the mid-level pitchers are a crap shoot. His road split isn’t pretty with a 4.40 xFIP and 1.67 whip but worth a shot for GPPs.
Brett Anderson (7000) – At MIN is a tough place to pitch but at only 7k he has put up 12, 19 and 25 DK points in his last 3 starts returning a nice consistent value. On the road this year he has allowed a nice 3.39 ERA with a 1.11 whip and hitters a .238 batting average. This is much better compared to his home 4.3 ERA, 1.51 whip and allowing a .280 average. Also has the #1 bullpen behind him so if they can get the lead he should hold on for the win. MIN hitting .249 over the last week and only 5-5 in their L10 games.
Joe Musgrove (5800) – After a 31 and 22 DK point outing he put up 3 semi-duds at 14, 14 and 11 points but at his price point that is still a 2x return with some upside behind it. If you can get that 25-30 point upside on his price tag that is a 4x-5x return on a punt priced pitcher! Kershaw won’t get you 5x on his salary! At home he is allowing a 4.62 ERA with a 1.18 whip and opponent hitters to a .256 batting average and the #12 bullpen behind him. That’s pretty solid for a sub $6k pitcher. Very small BVP vs. Philly but they are only 2 for 16 hitting .125 against him and Harper is 0 for 3 with 3 Ks.
Tom Eshelman (4400) – The rookie is coming off a 7/14 start going 5.2 innings giving up 4 ER but had 7 strikeouts for 15 DK points. That is almost 4x return. Matchup is tough facing a Boston line but Boston has struggled vs. pitchers they haven’t seen before.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
TEXAS vs. Jose Urquidy – He was decent on a 7/02 start @ COL but only went 3.2 innings giving up 2 ER and 4 Ks. He is coming off a 7/07 start where he only went 2.1 innings and gave up 5 ERs. Texas is scoring a measly 3.8 runs per game over the last week, rank 27th in our last 10 game power rankings and batting only .192. Look for them to get back on track today vs. a weak pitcher. Danny Santana is grading out at a whopping 138 averaging 16-20 DK points per game over the last 7-14 days and has a L14 game ceiling of 31 points.
CLEVELAND vs. Junis – Junis isn’t a terrible pitcher and on the road he has a decent 4.70 xFIP with a 1.42 whip and allowing a .274 average. However, CLE is hot right now winning 6 straight games and 8-2 in their last 10 games, 15-5 in their last 20 games and scoring 6.4 runs per game over the last week while hitting .307 as a team. They rank 4th in our last 10 game power rankings. They are cheap too! No hitters are over 4600 and a handful of them are in the 3k range you can mix into your stack. Monster BVP numbers as they are hitting a whopping .364 vs. Junis going 36 of 99 team Abs and ONLY 14% strikeout rate.
LAD vs. Alcantara – Dodger hittings score a massive 96.25 on our grading system. LAD at home has a 38-12 record, they are scoring 8.1 runs per game over the last week and hitting .275 as a team. They rank 5th in our last 10 game power rankings. Alcantara has been decent this year but on the road he has a 3.60 ERA (which is great) but his xFIP indicates he has been lucky and it should be closer to 6.25! He also has a road whip of 1.58 (which is terrible) and allowing a .256 average (which is decent).
HOUSTON vs. Jurado – Houston ranks 10th in our last 10 game power rankings, scoring 6.9 runs per game over the last week while hitting a solid .294. They have won 3 straight games and 6-4 in their last 10. They have 5 hitters that grade out over 100 today vs. Jurado. Jurado is allowing a .285 opponent batting average, 5.35 xFIP on the road with a 1.37 whip. Decent pitcher but Astros just too much for him today!
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