MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP from Yesterday: Corbin was solid returning around 2.8x value, Keller and Lopez were both great punt plays that returned solid values. Our St. Louis stack started off red hot and ended up putting 14 runs on the board and they were cheap! The Padres, NYY and Twins were the only other teams to score more than 5 runs on the day. LAD we had high hopes for but some horrible umpiring cost us that game! Sports betting we nailed the Washing F5 parlayed with Cleveland for a +190 payout. We had another parlay of LAD, Wash F5 and StL F5 for a +375 and just missed it with LAD losing by 1.
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
There are no pitchers on the main slate that I feel great about tonight. I’m likely going to punt pitching and stack up all the hitters. I’ll do some quick hitters on my thoughts for pitching.
TOP END Guys – Giolito, Berrios and Tanaka have all been struggling putting up around a 1.5x value average across their last 5 starts. Gio managed a solid 26 point start last time out @ TB going 6.2 innings with 9 Ks and only 1 ER so that’s a positive. Berrios is coming off 12 and 15 DK point starts as his strikeouts have fallen off and that is limiting his upside. Tanaka has only broke 12 DK points once in his last 5 starts and that was vs. a horrible TOR team. If you are going to roll with one of these guys I’d likely lean Berrios. I think he will be lower owned, game total only 8.5 and the team BVP against him is only .248 with a 26% strikeout rate through 125 Abs. Gio has put up some solid games but Minny is hitting .290 has a team last 7 days and scoring 6.7 runs per game. They have a BVP of 57 Abs hitting .263 with a lower 14% K rate. Again I’m not in love with any of them tonight.
Brett Anderson (7900) – At least he has 4 positive starts in a row and put up a 19 and 25 DK point outing in his last 5. Has only allowed 3, 2, 2 and 0 ER in last 4 starts. Team BVP is on his side as Texas is only hitting .154 off him through a nice 91 Abs. Choo is one of the highest graded hitters on Texas and he is only 2 for 22 with 7 Ks off Anderson. Texas also hitting .222 as a team and scoring 3.3 runs per game over the last week so that matchup is fair enough.
Adam Plutko (6700) – He makes the cut here with not many options. Coming off a 20 DK point start vs. KC going 7.0 innings with only 1 ER and 4 Ks. That is a 3x return and to get that from Gio today he needs to be in the 33 point range. KC hitting .234 as a team over the last 7 days and scoring only 3.8 runs per game. It is worth noting that KC at home is a much better team as their wRC+ jumps from 74.1 to 118.4 over the last 5 weeks. However, BVP is in the favor of Plutko as KC is only 3 of 36 off him for a .083 batting average.
Wade LeBlanc (5800) – If you need to save more money you can come down to LeBlanc. He is coming off 6 positive starts in a row with a ceiling of 29 DK points in his last 6. Seattle should get the win tonight as they are a -175 fav right now and that is a huge start on the return for his salary. DET is awful, fucking awful! Scoring 2.5 runs per game and hitting .212 as a team over the last 7 days. They are only scoring 3.6 per game on the season and hitting .232 as a team all year. They rank 28th in our last 10 game power rankings. Eeeek!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
Seattle vs. VerHagen – In a short slate I have to put them on there, I’m not a Seattle fan but this pitcher has limited stats but doesn’t appear to be anything special. 8.8% swinging strike rate and xFIP over 7.5. His most recent appearance was vs. KC and he lasted 1 inning and gave up 6 ER. Seattle is cold right now but managing a .278 average over the last week. Worth a dart as they are CHEAP!
Oakland vs. Jurado – Oakland has been slumping hitting only .221 as a team last 7 days and scoring only 3.7 runs per game but managed a 7-3 L10 game record. They are priced fair enough to do whatever you want with pitching. Jurado is allowing a .294 batting average on the road with a 5.35 xFIP and .347 wOBA. After he comes out of the game they get the 21st ranked bullpen over the last 5 weeks.
LAA vs. Yacabonis – My favorite stack of the night! LAA has been playing some great ball lately and took down a solid Dodgers team. Yaca has a 6.95 ERA with a 5.73 xFIP and allowing a .302 batting average and .340 wOBA. Boston just tagged him for 7 ER in 0.1 innings on July 20th. Prior to that he had 3 solid relief appearances totaling 3.0 innings and 7 Ks. BAL has the 20th ranked bullpen after he comes out of the game.
GPP Punt Stack: Baltimore vs. Jose Suarez – Writing this irritates me since I have a large bet on the Baltimore team wins under this year. Baltimore is hitting .284 over the last week and scoring 5.7 runs per game. They are only projected to score 4.1 tonight so likely won’t be chalky. You can stack the projected 1-5 hitters for around 4,000 average per player. Suarez has a 5.51 ERA on the year, 1.56 whip and allowing a .289 batting average. He isn’t a terrible pitcher but will only toss 3-4 innings and then LAA has a mid-tier bullpen ranking 16th. Cheap stack if you want two stud pitchers!
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Haze