PLAYER PROPS & THRIVE PICKS from CheatSheetPros!
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WHY THRIVE FANTASY OVER PRIZE PICKS?
Thrive Fantasy has better payouts and odds! For example, Prize Picks advertises hitting 2 of 2 player props pays 3x but they also don’t give you back your buy-in so it actually only pays 2x. $10 wager would pay $30 but they take your $10 so your net profit is only $20. Thrive is more of the typically mindset of a sports betting individual where they don’t count the buy in. So, they have 2 of 2 paying 3.6x and it’s a true 3.6x so $10 would pay $36 of profit and you get to keep your $10 wager. Thrive also offers some 2 additional things you can’t get on Prize picks. 1) They offer combo props such as passing + rushing yards and points + rebounds + assists combos where Prize picks does not. 2) Thrive also offers “prop contest” where you are awarded points for hitting certain props. We are focusing on Thrive Fantasy picks going forward and since they offer an export feature we can add this to our cheatsheets!
PLAYERS WE LIKE THIS NFL SUNDAY:
BEN ROETHLISBERGER – PASSING YARDS 260.5
Ben will always have a place in my betting memories as he made me a ton of money when he was playing for Miami (OH) in the early 2000’s. To be able to follow him through his college career and into the NFL has been amazing. Now that tells you how old I feel as that was 20 years ago! Back to the props! This number appears high as he only has 273, 205, 266, 229 and 253 over his last 5 played games but CIN is allowing the 28th most passing yards per game over the last 3 at 276 and the 25th most passing yards per game on the season. He faced Cincy in Week 3 and threw for 318 yards and he has Claypool back in action. Leaning the over here. You have to pair Big Ben with Diontae Johnson who we will discuss below.
DIONTAE JOHNSON – REC YARDS 74.5 (*PERSONAL FAVORITE*)
Diontae is 3-1 “OVER” the last 4 weeks putting up 101, 83, 56 and 98 yards. This is a great “stand-alone” prop if you want to add it to another card. Diontae has 13, 13, 6, 13 and 13 targets the last 5 plays games. Read above about CIN and their passing defense and lock in Diontae Johnson OVER!
BRANDON AIYUK – REC YARDS 54.5 (*MY TIER 2 FAVORITE*)
He is 2-1 “OVER” the last 3 games putting up 85, 26 and 89 yards. MIN on “D” has been getting wrecked giving up the 28th most rushing yards and 27th most passing yards in the last 3 games. With George Kittle back and Aiyuk back to grabbing some more targets I don’t like the 67.5 line on Deebo Samuel as he only has 7 targets the last 2 weeks and has been used more as a gadget player. Take Aiyuk on that lower line.
MATTHEW STAFFORD – PASSING YARDS 275.5
Rams have been struggling losing 31-10 last week to San Fran and then 28-16 the week prior to a Derrick Henry-less Titans team. Can they turn it around in a road matchup against the Packers? His raw projection (not my line) is 342 passing yards so they think he will crush this line. He has 243, 294, 305 and 334 over the last 4 weeks making him a 3-1 “OVER”. I’m a little hesitant on this line but don’t mind an over since they need this game and hope for a shootout. If you do take the OVER then pair him with Cooper Kupp and we will discuss him below.
COOPER KUPP – REC YARDS 98.5 (*MY TIER 2 FAVORITE*)
Robert Woods is out for the year so Kupp and OBJ should be the top 2 WRs. I’m sure OBJ is still learning the offense so I could see Stafford leaning on Kupp in this game. Kupp has put up 122, 95, 115, 156 and 130 over the last 5 games giving up a 4-1 “OVER” and the one miss was by only 3.5 yards.
DALVIN COOK – RUSHING YARDS 77.5 (*MY TIER 2 FAVORITE*)
Davlin Cook is 5-0 “OVER” this number over his last 5 played games putting up 86, 94, 110, 78 and 140 yards. Now SF is a great rushing “D” so this is not an ideal match up but we are getting a lower line. Cook has 22, 24, 27, 18 and 29 rushing attempts over those 5 games so the volume is there and San Fran is giving up 4.3 rushing yards per attempt. That means we need 78 yards to hit the “over” and they are allowing 4.3 yards per attempt so we need 18.13 rush attempts to hit this number. Lean the over.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON – REC YARDS 84.5 (*MY TIER 2 FAVORITE*)
Either Davlin Cook will go over -OR- Justin Jefferson will go over so I like having one of them in your parlay cards! Jefferson has been unreal putting up 169 and 143 in his last 2 games with 17 catches on 21 attempts. San Fran ranks 24th vs. WR-1s.
CARSON WENTZ – PASSING YARDS 245.5
Leaning on the UNDER in this spot since Tampa Bay is allowing the 8th fewest passing yards per game over the last 3 at 195 and only 243.7 on the season. Wentz has 106, 180, 272, 231, 150 and 223 over the last 6 games since Jonathan Taylor has been going nuts. That gives you a 5-1 “UNDER” in this spot against a good “D”.
MICHAEL PITTMAN – REC YARDS 65.5
I would prefer taking Jonathan Taylor rushing yards but if you are fading that then taking a Pittman OVER should also be paired with Carson Wentz OVER since they are strongly correlated.
JONATHAN TAYLOR – RUSHING YARDS 79.5 (*MY TIER 2 FAVORITE*)
Taylor was one of our favorite RBs this year for season long leagues with the upgraded offensive line and soft schedule and he is starting to pay dividends! Tampa is a solid “D” allowing the lowest rushing yards per game at 78.4 and 104 per game over the last 3 but this total is only 79.5. Taylor just hung 185 rushing yards on 32 carries and 4 rushing touchdowns on the Buffalo Bills. His last 3 games he has 185, 116 and 172 rushing yards. Tampa is a solid rush “D” but this total is low enough that we can take a shot here. His raw generic projection is 89 yards and we have him projected for around 100.
JOE BURROW – PASSING YARDS 253.5
Last week Burrow only had 148 passing yards but they were able to put up 32 points so they didn’t need him to throw it all over. In games prior to last week Burrow has thrown for 282, 259, 416, 271, 281 and 348. That puts him at a 6-1 “OVER” this number. They are facing a solid “D” in the Steelers who get back Fitz but they have been susceptible to giving up some points. CIN passing on 57% of plays. Not my favorite prop but worth a shot if you want to pair it with a WR over. TEE HIGGINS (58.5 REC YARDS) AND JA’MARR CHASE (65.5 REC YARDS) don’t really jump out. Tee Higgins is 3-1 “OVER” his line for the last 4 games and Chase is “UNDER” each of the last 3 games with only 32, 49 and 32 yards but the targets have been there with 6, 13 and 9.
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