NBA Sports Betting Report (February 10th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last night we ended up going 6-1 on totals and then 2-4 on NBA sides. However, I did warn to be careful with the trades as it will take at least 3 games for the stats to catch up with players on new teams. Anyways, we started off HOT for NBA sides going 5-0, then going 5-2, then 8-0 and came back to earth at 2-4 last night for a 20-6 run. I have a video here if you would like to see it: https://youtu.be/ON8whBCdVfw
PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
CHA (+3.5) vs. DETROIT (O/U 205.5)
We have this game as 106-104 with DET winning but not covering the 3.5 point spread. This game is too close to the Vegas line for me to play but the sheet would say play CHA +3.5 so that is how it will be tracked. We have the total hitting 210 while it is 205.5 in Vegas. This is a 4.5 point difference. I don’t mind a play her on the over as we also have the “Strong Over Play” consideration come up. This is not a game I personally will bet due to the pace of play with CHA at 96.0 and then DET at 93.4 over the L3 games. Sheet says: CHA +3.5 and over 205.5
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: CHA is taking 19.2 more 3 point attempts per game over the L3 than DET. CHA is taking 8.7 more boards per game over the L3. CHA is also allowing 12 more points per 100 possessions than DET.
BKN (+6.5) vs. INDY
We have this game at BKN winning 119-112 AND they are getting +6.5 in Vegas so that is worth a play with some sprinkles on the money line for BKN. We have this pegged on the sheet as an over 218.5 play as we are projecting 231 points. SHARP Money is pulling the total down so that is enough for me to fade the total (personally) but take BKN +6.5. IND is 3-7 in their L10 games. Sheet says: BKN +6.5 and over 218.5
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: BKN is taking 10 more FG attempts per game and 9.7 more 3 point attempts per game. BKN has an offensive advantage over the L3 games 1.19 vs. 1.09 and a huge defensive efficiency advantage with 0.98 vs. 1.15. BKN also has 11.6 more rebounds per game and 5.3 more offensive boards per game over the L3.
ATLANTA (+8.5) vs. ORL
So ATL is coming off a 2 OT game last night vs. NYK where they squeaked out a 5 point win. So fatigue is a concern for me but the sheet doesn’t see fatigue this is a “common sense” thing that you have to understand. We have it as 120-105 ATL winning the game but I think it will be closer. ATL is 6-22 on the road but ORL is 2-8 in their L10 games and lost 3 straight. Not my favorite play but worth a little bet. I am fading the total because we have it only 4 points to the over and that is not enough for me to get excited and the total numbers are slightly skewed because of the 2OT game last night so I would fade the total myself. Sheet says: ATL +8.5 and over 220
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: ATL is shooting 92% from the free throw line over the L3 vs. only 81% for ORL. 10% margins typically show up in the end game. Although ORL doesn’t send many people to the FT line with only 17 attempts per game vs. 26.7 allowed by ATL. Offensive efficiency is ATL 1.10 vs. 0.97 for ORL and both team defensive efficiencies are the same at 1.08.
MIN +10 vs. TORONTO
We have this pegged at 120-117 with MIN winning. However, keep in mind we need 3 games to get the stats to catch up with the trades and new players. So sheet says play on MIN +10 as this should be a tight game. MIN is only 9-16 pm the road and 1-9 in their L10 games. TOR has won 14 straight and 20-7 at home and 10-0 in their last 10. MIN will hopefully be able to stay inside the number. We like playing on the total here as the “Strong Over Look” indicator comes up. We have this at 237 total points and Vegas opened at 228.5 and moved to 230.5. If you have watched the video the last 3 game indicators are both hitting there. Sheet says: MIN +10 and over 230.5
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: Both teams are identical in offensive efficiency and with in 0.01 of defensive efficiency. MIN has 4.3 more turnovers per game over the L3 than TOR and that could be the key factor here. Another stat jumping out at me is that MIN only covers the spread 36.7% of the time and 1-9 in their L10 games!
SACRAMENTO +10.5 vs. MILW
So we are awaiting the birth of Giannis’s child to see if he will play in this game or not. If he does not play SAC +10.5 is a rock solid play, if Giannis does play then I have more concern. MIL is 24-3 at home and 9-1 in their L10 games they are a solid unit this year. We have this with MIL winning around 112-110. Line opened at SAC +14.5 and has been bet down to +10.5 so we have the “Big Line Shift Alert” popping up on the sheet. We are close enough on the total that it isn’t a bet for me personally but we have it slightly going under. I rarely bet unders and only bet overs but for tracking sheet says SAC +10.5 and under 228.5.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: Look at key on/off numbers with Giannis unlikely to play.
DALLAS (-1.5) vs. UTAH
Sheet says DAL 113-110 so take the +1.5. I’m off of this game due to injuries and Vegas money and line is moving to Utah. For tracking I’ll have down Dallas +1.5 but for my personally I’m off the game. Statwise Dallas makes sense if you are looking at the sheet but not a top play for me.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: One of the things I like here is DAL has 3.3 less turnovers per game over their L3. The only worry I have is Porzingis didn’t play well in his last game with the broken nose. If he can play to his potential I like Dallas. All other stats are pretty close in this game.
DENVER (-7) vs. SPURS
We have this game close to the Vegas spread with DEN winning 116-107 covering the -7 point spread. We also have the game going over the 216.0 number and hitting 222. This is where some common sense comes into play. Sheet says 222 for a total, Vegas opened at 222 and then has been hammered down 5 points to 216.0. Since this is such a large line movement I’m staying away from the total because that is going to negative a sheet play. SHARP MONEY is hammering the under so if you are going to play here I would play the UNDER 216 points. Denver is 20-6 at home while Spurs are 8-18 on the road. Spurs are also 3-7 in their L10 games and have lost 4 in a row while DEN has won 3 straight. Lay it! Sheet says DENVER -7.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: Spurs are allowing a 49% 3P% to the opposing team while Denver is only allowing a 31% and that is a huge 18% gap between the two. Offensive efficiency DENVER is at 1.14 while Spurs only 1.08 and defensive efficiency we see a huge gap with Spurs allowing a 1.27 over the L3 games meaning they are allowing 127 points per 100 possessions which is unheard of and DENVER only allowing a 1.01 meaning they are allowing only a 101 points per 100 possessions. DENVER also has 14.7 more rebounds per game over the L3 and 3.3 more offensive boards per game. There are also several smaller factors I consider that add up over the course of the game like Denver having 3.3 more blocks per game and 1.3 more steals per game.
PHO (+12.5) vs. LAKERS
Sheet says play on PHO at +12.5 and over 229. My personal opinion is that the Lakers are a team that is hard to count on or count out so I typically avoid them unless I’m betting Lakers. I don’t mind the over but it doesn’t blow me away. We have the Lakers winning 118-114 and PHO covering the +12.5.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: One thing that I feel good with PHO here is that they are shooting 94% from the FT line over the L3 games while LAL is only shooting 72%. With 20-25 FT attempts per game that is going to add up. Lakers also allowing a 45% 3P% over the L3 games compared to only 33% by PHO. LAL have 10.7 more rebounds per game and both teams have a shit ton of turnovers per game with 17.7 and 18.0 per game which is a bunch!
GSW (+5) vs. MIA
Golden state is another team that is tricky. 75% of the money is on Miami but GSW took the line shift with only 26% of the money indicating sharp bettors are hitting GSW. We have this game with GSW winning 111-110 so taking the +5. Total is 219 and we have it at 221 so slightly going over. Sheet says GSW +5 and over 219
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER: With new players and injuries the stats here don’t mean as much. The one thing I’m looking at is MIA is taking 10 more 3P attempts per game over the L3. MIA is giving up 46.7 3P attempts per game while GSW only giving up 28.3. MIA has done a good job of keeping people off the FT line. MIA is averaging 10 more boards per game than GSW.
RECAP OF THE PLAYS I PERSONALLY LIKE:
MINNY over 230.5
SHARP MONEY GAMES AT 3:30 PM
GSW +5 / DENVER UNDER 216 / BKN UNDER 218.5
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