GRADE TAB BREAKDOWN from 2-11-2020: My goal is to go back and look at the grade tab players have HIT and MISS and show you what they look like on the grade tab and what stats are jumping out. I'll write these up whenever I have some downtime and hopefully after seeing enough of them you can look at the grade tab and in 5-10 minutes you can pick and choose players based off the stats! So let's get started!
Lonnie Walker - Producing 4.46x value in only 18.6 minutes per game and projected for another 10 minutes you would easily think that if he got those extra minutes that would put him over 5x value and higher. Walker played 25 minutes and putup 5.7x value. There is cause for concern with the FPPM dip and really low DVP.
Robert Covington - Just a stud play that we wrote up yesterday. Hitting value in normal minutes, steady FPPM production and he went for 7.5x value and put up 39.25 DKP.
Troy Brown - We always say projected and/or average minutes <30 has a high variance of played minutes, they may get 15 or 30. We can see here Troy Brown is avg 25 minutes and projected at 29 which is fair but take that with a grain of salt. He played only 16 minutes. You can also see that Forbes is in the same boat and played only 21 minutes and then Trey Lyles was also a high variance player and played 31 minutes.
LeMarcus Aldridge - Playing 33.9 and putting up 5.2x value is SOLID! Great ceiling of 59.0 DKP and DVP spot of 0.98. With DeRozan out his minutes and extra usage is guaranteed. If you see me talk about usage bumps those are key when there is a big time player not playing. Aldridge jumps from a 23.4 usage to 28.7 with DeRozan off the floor and FPPM goes from 1.10 to 1.36. He smashed and went for 7.7x value and 39 minutes.
David Bertans - Just a complete whiff - on played 24 minutes for 3x value, it happens!
Danilo Gallinari - Edge over 100, Minutes over 30, Recent form over 5x and he put up 5.5x value. No indicators that would take me off of him but the thing that jumps out is his DVP spot of 1.05 which is a smash spot.
Steven Adams - He is tricky because he is usually boom or bust. I could see you going either way here. What jumps out at me is Adams with an edge of 162 and a DVP spot of 1.12 which is an absolute smash spot and he usually excels in those spots. However, if you decide to fade him due to his FPPM dropping from 1.18 down to 0.86 or his low 4.27x value average with the same amount of projected minutes I could also get behind that. He ended up playing 32 minutes and went for 6.4x.
Bryn Forbes - ALARMS should be going off! Total EDGE only 37.0 and that is WAY UNDER the 100 we are looking for as a MIN and his DVP spot is 0.77!!! DVP under 0.85 is a red flag and below 0.80 is a HUGE RED FLAG! Also projected minutes are under 30 so we have to worry about his minutes. He played 21 minutes and put up 3.9x value. You may see guys like this hit value but more than likely they will FAIL and hardly ever go 7x, 8x, 9x.
Russell Westbook - Just a stud that has been smashing and continued to smash last night, no issues with his numbers.
Carmelo Anthony - FADE, FADE, FADE! #1 He is projected for the same amount of minutes as he has been playing, so what has he done with those minutes? He has been averaging 4.16x value and has a FPPM drip from 0.85 down to a horrible 0.68. FADE! He went for 4.4x value and didn't hit, again!
Trey Lyles - He was the benefactor of the minute variance. He played 31 minutes and went for 7x value just smashing.
Ben Simmons - Total edge of 129 so easily over 100, projected the same amount of minutes he has been playing and he has been putting up 5.4x value in those minutes with a steady FPPM production. He actually played 43 minutes and went for 7.1 value.
Hope this helps you understand the GRADE tab a little better. The idea is to find the projected value players and find out who is most likely to go BOOM or go BUST! If we can eliminate the players that will FAIL or have a high chance of failure then our lineups will only improve and get better.