I typically provide a recap of the sheet from the prior night and post it on Facebook. However, after time this gets lost in all the posts so I wanted to write it in the blog so we had a record that people could go back too.
GRADE TAB FILTERS FOR CORE PLAYERS:
So when you are looking for SOLID CORE PLAYERS you want to find some parameters that you feel comfortable with. For myself I like PROJECTED MINUTES over 30 - these players are more consistent. When players are projected for 15-25 minutes you pick up a ton of variance and sometimes they may play 30-35 and some nights they may only play 12. You need to be on the court to have scoring opportunities. #2 I like Last 4 average value over 4.5x. This is something simple, players that are scoring will continue to score. When you get below 4.5x value on average those players are usually struggling and have a lower FPPM number or a dip in production. Narrowing to 4.5 gives me some solid people I can feel confident in. #3 Total Edge over 100 - Total edge is a key factor that takes the Vegas team implied total and the DVP for their position and combines it into a single number.
Take a look at the screen shot above and I made a note on the top of how I sorted these numbers that I discuss above. So I want to discuss a few of these players but you can see the x value write up next to their name. The green players were all 5x or higher so you can see that we have a very consistent pool of players to fill in our lineups that are solid anchors to our lineups. Drummond has a total edge of 195.9 and that is mainly because his DVP is 1.26 which is MASSIVE, he is also averaging 5.18x value over his last 4 games and now he is in a SMASH spot and went for 6x. Simmons is on a nice 5.8x average over his last 4 games so no reason to think he is going to shit the bed now, his DVP is 1.08 with a total edge of 120 so he is someone we can anchor a line with. This is a solid way to find a "Core Group" of players.
GRADE TAB VALUE RESEARCH:
In this screen shot I want to focus on "finding value" So there are several players that are "projected" to be value players but we want to dig further and find who we agree with and who we want to fade. Daris Basley was the top guy last night on 1-25-20. Now the first thing I'm looking at is his last 4 game average minutes is 21.6 so what has he been doing with those 21.6 minutes? You can see he is putting up a 6.09x value in ONLY 21.6 minutes, that is AWESOME! So now he is projected for 27 minutes. So if he is putting up 6x value in only 21.6 minutes and now projected for 27 that has to be a good value play right? Well I always look at his DVP and he is sitting at 0.99 which is solid. He played 30 minutes and went for 9.2 value his $3.1k salary. SOLID! Bruce Brown is putting up 4.5x value in 22.8 minutes so we could safely expect him to hit 5x value with a few more minutes and he is projected for 30 minutes with a DVP of 0.96 so I'm fine with him. He played 36 minutes and went for 8.1 value. So chalk value HIT.
I don't have a specific screen shot right now but if Bruce Brown was putting up 2.5-3x value over his last 4 games in those 22.8 minutes then I would be concerned. Because if you are at only 3x in 23 minutes then playing 30 minutes we can't expect him to drop a 7x-9x smash night so that would concern me. Always look at last 4 minutes and last 4 value compared to current projected minutes. #2 We want to look at DVP. So anything below 0.80 is REALLY FUCKING BAD. Below 0.85 is a red flag for me if it's not a superstar player. Anything around 0.90-1.00 is solid and when you get over 1.00 then it starts getting juicy and when you hit 1.1-1.25 then those are SMASH spots (good for player props!).
GPP ALGO PLAYS:
If you don't have time to dig through all the stats and numbers or you just don't enjoy that part of DFS research then just open the sheet and it is always sorted by GPP Algo and look through the top 8-12 players and find a few that you like that you can lock in. These are the players that I always look at first especially if I am short on time. You can see last night on 1-25-20 we had another 6 of 8 smash value going for 6x or more. These are players that have usually been performing really well AND in good spots.
DVP TAB:
I can't stress this enough USE THE DVP tab! There are players in SMASH DVP spots that are always projected at 3.5x - 4.5x value and end up killing it. Yes this takes some time to look at the chart and then figure out who fits and I've attempted to use these players as "Diamond Plays" and "Mini Diamonds" on the NBA sheet but some get through the cracks. At the very top you see DET vs. BKN and BKN is allowing 60.4 DKP to the C position over the last two weeks, that is also 25.0% of the total points allowed PLUS that is a 17.1% advantage for the position. So Drummond is an easy anchor for your lineups and ended up at 6x value. You can read so I won't spend a ton of time on this but anything over 50 DKP is a good spot, also anything over that 22.5% - 23.0% of the total points (2nd set of stats) is a huge spot AND the final set of sets is just how that compares to the league average for the position. If you are looking at a SuperStar player like LeBron, Kawhi, Harden, Westbrook, etc. then throw DVP out the window, they are the best of the best and will score no matter the DVP spot.
Hope this helps - I typically post some screen shots and a quick write up but wanted to put something in the blog with it. I'll also work on some lineup construction videos as that seems to be the biggest question that I get asked.
Good Luck Everyone!
Haze