PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Well that was a crap show last week. Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Lucas Glover and Henley all missing the cut! Tony Finau ended up doing decent but not great for his salary but at least he made the cut and racked up some fantasy points. I had several shares of Michael Thompson at 1.56% ownership but still only had a few min cashes. Hopefully, you guys had a better week last week than I did. But as always, I’m ready to dive back and find some plays!
Feel free to post below any plays that you like for this week.
COURSE:
TPC Southwind – Not Cut Event.
Yardage just over 7,200 and playing at a Par 70
Greens are Bermuda.
PAST WINNERS:
2019: Brooks Koepka -16
2018: Dustin Johnson -19 2017: Daniel Berger -10 2016: Daniel Berger -13 2015: Fabian Gomez -13 2014: Ben Crane -10 2013: Harris English -12 2012: Dustin Johnson -9
QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:
Par 5 Scoring – This course has (2) Par 5 holes and they have monster birdie rates at 49% and 35%.
Par 4: 450-500 Scoring – So one of the things I’m looking at now are which holes are the hardest and have the highest “bogey” rates. There are 4 holes in this range that have a 20%-28% “bogey” rate. So it’s going to be key to play well on these holes.
Proximity: 150-175 has the majority of approach shots on the course followed by the 175-200 and then 125-150. So if you are going to follow 3 of the proximity ranges those are the 3 you want to focus on. If you are only looking at one then 150-175 is where you want to look.
Scrambling – The fairways are narrow and hard to hit so if the golfer is going to miss the fairway then they must be good in scrambling. The greens are easy to hit and putting will be much easier here. If you have a bomber then make sure they are good in scrambling or focus on someone that is accurate off-the-tee.
SG: T2G & SG: Approach – This should just be a staple week in and week out. If you want to focus on SG: OTT here that is fine I just don’t agree with it because this is not a hard course to scramble on and the greens are easy to hit. So I think bombers with a high grade in scrambling will do just as well as anyone that is accurate driving.
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
I don’t want to spend a bunch of time talking about the top end stud guys that everyone will be trying to cram two of them into their lineups. These are the guys that are in featured groups, always on TV and constantly discussed. I’m going to focus on the 9,000 and under guys this week.
My quick thoughts on this group. Bryson DeChambeau at 11000 is way ahead of the others for my #1 pick if I can take any of them. Why? He is shooting -3.83 per round since the return of golf. I don’t care about him getting tired last week, it was one tournament. Prior to last week he had 6 of 7 rounds at -5 or LOWER! That is a crazy stat! Rory McIlroy would be my #2 because he has 32 rounds on this course and he is +3.05 SG per round here. The is the highest of any golfer with history here. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay would all be tied for #3 in which point for DFS I’d go off salary that fits into my line.
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
TYRELL HATTON (9700 DK / 10,800 FD) – It is hard not to like Hatton this week priced at 9700 on DK which is the 8th golfer down in pricing. He doesn’t have many tournaments since the return, well actually he only has 2. He played the RBC in June and took 3rd place putting up 114.5 DK points. He came back a couple weeks later and played the Rocket Mortgage and took 4th place putting up 112 DK points. In the RM he shot -4, -5, -3 and -4. He is also a 4th in DK points, 10th in T2G, 2nd in Bob%, 16th in proximity and in P3 – P4 – P5 scoring he ranks 7th, 2nd and 18th over his last 24 rounds. If he isn’t rusty 4 rounds of Hatton could give you 10x+ value.
DANIEL BERGER (9600 DK / 10500 FD) – He missed the cut at the “Memorial” but his prior finishes are 3rd, 1st, 4th, 5th and 9th place. He has put up 124 and 113.5 DK points in the two before the Memorial. Last 24 rounds he ranks 8th in T2G, 8th in approach, 5th in putting, 5th in BoB%, 1st in scrambling and 10th in proximity. His P3 – P4 – P5 scoring ranks are 3rd, 3rd and 32nd.
VIKTOR HOVLAND (9400 DK / 10600 FD) – If it ain’t broke then don’t try to fix it. Hovland hasn’t let me down yet this year so I have to go back with him this week. He made the cut at the Memorial but it was a tough tournament where several top end guys missed the cut so I won’t focus on it. His prior 4 he put up 119.5, 95, 100 and 102 DK points and finished 3rd, 12th, 11th and 21st. Hovland is 2nd in DK points, 1st in T2G and 1st in approach over his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 1st in Par 5 scoring. His downfall is putting where he ranks 66th. On the year his ball striking is +1.68 which is above (Berger +0.89 and Hatton +1.44).
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (8900 DK / 10400 FD) – Hideki in this range I’m perfectly find with. Ranks 24th in the world. 3rd in T2G and 6th in approach he only needs to work on his putting which ranks a horrible 77th but this is an easy place to putt. His proximity numbers are key with 2nd in overall proximity, 11th in 150-175 and he is 14th in P5 scoring. Excellent ball striker at +1.47 strokes on the year but his putting is -0.57. I don’t think he can compete for a win but 4 rounds and rack up a ton of points, sure!
GARY WOODLAND (8600 DK / 9700 FD) – Living in Kansas I can’t “not” mention Gary Woodland anymore. He ranks 19th in the world and he is 24th in T2G and 3rd in approach over his last 24 rounds. He is also a solid putter ranking 7th (compared to Hideki at 77th). His P3 – P4 – P5 scoring ranks 18th, 19th and 15th across the board. He is also a solid ball striker at +1.04 strokes on the season and +0.56 with the putter. Coming off 22nd and 5th place finishes. He ranks as #3 in this pricing tier for lowest average rounds since the return of golf. (Ancer -2.75, Sergio -2.14 and Woodland -1.78).
ABRAHAM ANCER (8400 DK / 9300 FD) – He made the cut at the Memorial but prior to that he has 9 consecutive rounds in the 60’s. He took 11th at the Travelers, 2nd at the RBC and 14th at the Schwab. He is 15th and 23rd in T2G and approach with 8th and 10th in P3 and P4 scoring. He is also a decent putter at +0.41 on the year and ranks 28th over his last 24 rounds. He pops because he is 1st in the 150-175 proximity range which could mean big numbers here!
SERGIO GARCIA (8000 DK / 9200 FD) – Ok guys I’m looking for some low owned guys to plug into these categories that I have. Yes, I know Ancer will likely be one of the highest owned in the tier. But right now it looks like Garcia will be one of the lowest owned on the early projections. He ended up shooting +4 at the Memorial and yes that is for the entire tournament. So that was a solid showing but nothing spectacular. His rankings are pretty solid but they are all over the place. He is 33rd in total proximity, 21st in P4 scoring and 34th in P5 scoring and my favorite this week… 25th in scrambling! He is a great ball striker as it sits right now he is +1.51 on the year and +2.08 in T2G. He is coming off a couple top 35 finishes and a 5th place. He also jumped up in my custom model at 21st.
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
MAX HOMA (7200 DK / 8300 FD) – Mad Max is another boom or bust GPP play. He is coming off a 3rd place finish at the 3M which was solid. But he missed the 3 cuts prior to that. He has upside tho! He had a string of finishes January 5th, 2020 through March 10th, 2020 where he finished 24th, 5th, 14th, 6th, 9th, 48th and 25th. Those are some stellar finishes! He also ranks 12th in T2G and 5th in approach over his last 24 rounds. Last week he shot -6, +1, -7 and -4. If he can string a few good rounds together he would be a solid option. (To be honest I didn’t even pay attention to him last week. We do a PGA draft weekly with me and 4 buddies and we each draft 5 golfers and highest finisher gets paid. Well he drafted Homa and I had Finau and we tied and had to split the prize pool. Now I am very aware of Homa after watching him play.)
MICHAEL THOMPSON (7,000 DK / 8500 FD) – He is someone that might be a little chalky this week for value plays so make sure to watch the ownership article we post Wednesday mornings. He had a great week last week…. Well he won so obviously it was a great week. Duh! I mean he shot rounds of -7, -5, -3 and -4 which was solid. He has been up and down so let’s hope that he is putting something together with his game and he can string together a couple good rounds and get a solid return on his 7k price tag on DK. He is at -2.07 per round since the return and that is playing 5 events so that is solid. I don’t have any fancy stats for you… no wait…. I do! He is 5th in proximity of 150-175 yards! Yes! Now he has a stat we can get behind! Thompson goes into the player pool!
GOLFERS UNDER 7,000: “DARTS”
KEVIN STREELMAN (6900 DK / 8500 FD) – Ranking 45th in the world he has been on a heater as of late finishing 54th, 7th and 2nd in his last 3 tournaments. Over his last 24 rounds he is 23rd in DK points, 18th in T2G, 20th in approach, 16th in BOB%, 2nd in GIR: Gained, 20th in Par 4 scoring and 4th in Par 5 scoring. He made the cut at the Memorial but didn’t do anything special. His prior 2 tournaments he was outstanding putting up rounds of -2, -8, -1 and par and then -4, -4, -7 and -3. He has 72% of his rounds going at -1 or lower. Steelman and the two guys below are the only ones in the green for rounds under par.
J.T. POSTON (6500 DK / 7600 FD) – Going to look for some flyers in this category and Poston fits the bill. He has missed his last 3 cuts at the Memorial, Rocket Mortgage and Travelers. Prior to that he has two top 10 finishes. He took 8th at the RBC and 10th at the Charles Schwab. Even after those horrible stats in the 3 MC events he ranks 12th in approach, 14th in putting and 6th in Par 3 scoring. He is the perfect GPP boom – or – bust play! And he is playing 4 rounds no matter what! Wait, unless he withdraws… Ok it is “likely” he is going to play 4 rounds. Poston has 71% of rounds going at -1 or lower (10 of 14 played since the return) and if you count PAR or lower that is only 2 of 14 above par. Know where those two arounds were? Yes! You guessed it! The Memorial! He shot +4 and +2 which wasn’t even that bad. He also ranks 2nd in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. 2 of his 3 MC he missed by less than a stroke and the two top 10 finishes he shot -4, -2, -5, -6 and -2, -4, -3 and -2. His scoring average per round is -2.29! That is 10th among all the golfers in the field!
KEEGAN BRADLEY (6300 DK / 7400 FD) – Keegan ranks 72nd in the world rankings and he has been up and down since the return. He struggled at the “Memorial” but so did everyone (he ended at +13). The week before he shot -3, -1, +2 and -2 and then -3, -3, +1 and -5. He has 18 rounds of golf under his belt since the return and 11 of them have been at -1 or lower for 61%. In the last 24 rounds he is 21st in approach, 27th in T2G and 26th in total proximity
TOM LEWIS (6200 DK / 7300 FD) – Ranked 67th in the world he is going to make the article this week. He is also 8th in Par 5 scoring and a solid 5th in Par 3 scoring over the last 24 rounds. This is a tough field this week but 4 rounds of Tom Lewis is worth a punt if you want to stack up the top end of your lineup. He jumped out at me looking at my “Round Tracker” cheatsheet. He shot -3, par, -4 and -3 last week and then his prior tournament (Rocket Mortgage) he shot -4, -1, -6 and -3. 83% of his rounds have been at -1 or better since the return of golf. He finished 32nd last week and 12 at the RM.
SG: PUTTING on Bermuda vs. All Others:
Last 24 Rounds SG: Putting on Bermuda Greens
1. Webb Simpson
2. J.T. Poston
3. Ian Poulter
4. Brooks Koepka
5. Matthew Fitzpatrick
6. Jordan Speith
7. Billy Horschel
8. Patrick Reed
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
10.Rickie Fowler
Some of the notable putting differences when I pulled the SG: Putting rank on Bermuda vs. All Others were:
Dustin Johnson – Ranks 15th on Bermuda Greens and 69th all others.
Sergio Garcia – Ranks 20th on Bermuda and 74th on all others.
Brooks Koepka – Ranks 4th on Bermuda and 49th on all others.
Shane Lowry – 29th on Bermuda vs. 73rd on all others.
Webb Simpson – Ranks 1st on Bermuda and 40th on all others.
Graeme McDowell – Ranks 11th on Bermuda vs. 48th on all others.
J.T. Poston – Ranks 2nd on Bermuda vs. 35th on all others.
Rickie Fowler – Ranks 10th on Bermuda and 41st on all others.
CUSTOM MODEL RANKS ON FantasyNational.com:
Every week I put in my custom model ranks on the 5-6 things that I think are going to factor into the low scores on the current course. This week I have decided to go ahead and post some of the plays that are showing up in the Top 10 and discuss them.
Daniel Berger (#1) – Discussed above but the model ranking just burns him into my mind when building my lineups. 1st in Scrambling and Top 8 in all other stats I pulled besides Par 5s where he ranked 32nd.
Justin Thomas (#2) – High priced stud, stat monster, won’t waste time talking about someone like J.T. If you can afford him all the top guys are fine plays this week with a guaranteed 4 rounds of action.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (#8) – I feel like NA and Fitz have the same upside but Fitz is 9,000 on DK and Na is only 7,500. Fitz took 3rd at Memorial and 27th at Workday. Bermuda is his best putting surface by far where he ranks +0.66 SG: Putting.
Kevin Na (#9) – 4th in scrambling, 16th in approach and 19th in DK points. After missing the cut at the Schwab he came back with a 5th at the Travelers and 9th at Memorial. Solid golfer and priced at only 7,500 this week.
Gary Woodland (#11) – Also discussed above Woodland is solid at only 8600 on DK and ranks 24th and 3rd in T2G and Approach. He pops in the model for his mid-tier price tag.
Adam Hadwin (#15) – Priced at only 7200 he could be a sneaky play this week. His worst rank is SG: Par 5s at 42nd (which isn’t terrible) but there are only 2 on the course. Elsewhere he ranks 7th in scrambling, 27th in DK points and 4th in the Par 4: 450-500.
Thanks for reading,
Haze