PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
A great turnout at the PGA Championship as we had Morikawa in our pool of targeted players who are accurate but have struggled to putt. Those greens were much easier to putt on and he was gaining strokes each day. I made a few changes to the PGA Showdown sheet so make it easier to update daily and excited for it this week. I love watching the live strokes gained and see the trends of certain players.
COURSE:
7,127 yards – Par 70 – Sedgefield Country Club
QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:
Scoring relative to par – EASY
Greens – Bermuda
Green Speed – FAST
Wind conditions during past events here: CALM
Par 5 Scoring – There are (2) Par 5 holes and they have monster birdie rates of 56.3% and 49.5%.
Par 4 Scoring – There are several short Par 4s and 3 of them make up 29.5%, 24.4% and 19.5% birdie rate for 5 of the 6 easiest holes on the course.
Hardest hole on the course is #18 which is a Par 4: 505 yard monster. It has a 24.7% bogey rate.
Strokes Gained Approach is the strongest correlated metric in my opinion.
Proximity shots are mainly from 150-175 yards.
Proximity 125-150, 175-200 and 200+ are sprinkled in all around the same but way behind the 150-175.
SG: T2G – Last year the top 5 all finished in the top 5. (Strong correlation)
SG: APP – 14 of the top 17 in this category all made the cut. (Strong correlation)
SG: OTT – 6 of the top 11 missed the cut. (No value in this stat this week.)
SG: ATG – 8 of the top 10 missed the cut. (No value in this stat this week.)
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
WEBB SIMPSON (11,200 DK / 11,900 FD) – I typically don’t like paying up for a stud but this week the field is weak and there aren’t many good options at the top. Webb has finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd here over the last 3 years. He also has a 72nd and 6th place finished the two years prior to that. Webb ranks 16th in total proximity and 2nd in Par 4 scoring. On our “Round Tracker” cheatsheet Webb has the highest percentage of rounds under par since the covid return at 75% (15 of 20) and the lowest average per round since the return at -1.90 strokes. Webb has been over 90 DK points in 3 of his last 5 events and has a ceiling of 145 points that he put up at the RBC.
BROOKS KOEPKA (11,400 DK / 12,200 FD) – I like him behind Webb but he is really expensive so I don’t know how much I’ll have this week. All the top guys have some question marks. Koepka has an average round of -1.13 per round since the return and only 67% of his rounds below par (16 of 24). If he “wants” to play he can go really low on this course but you never know if he is just making an appearance for sponsors or if he is actually going to try. He hasn’t done much since the return of golf but has broke 100 DK points twice and the other 5 he was way under value.
PAUL CASEY (10,300 DK / 11,500 FD) – Casey played here last year and took 13th and is coming off a T2 last week. He is the best ball striker of the expensive guys and he is sitting at +1.73 strokes per round “ball striking”. Compare that to Webb (+0.97), Koepka at (+0.98), Patrick Reed (+0.58) and Tommy Fleetwood (+0.41). Casey also ranks 9th in total proximity, 15th in par 4 scoring and 30th in par 5 scoring over his last 36 played rounds. He went off the rails at the WGC shooting a +8 in round 2 but followed it up with a -1 and -3. He came in last week and shot 4 solid rounds of -2, -3, -2 and -4. He hasn’t done much except for last week putting up 99.5 DK points. Prior to that he was 53, 21, 28 and 78. Hoping he broke off the rust and is ready to get low!
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
HARRIS ENGLISH (9,300 DK / 10,900 FD) – This guy had a crazy low price tag last week and I had a bunch of shares. I also hammered him on “making the cut” because they odds were just too good. He has 5 straight cuts made here and has always finished in that 30th-50th range with an 11th place the year before last. He has 4 straight top 20’s so his recent form is solid.
BILLY HORSCHEL (9,100 DK / 10,400 FD) – The 40TH ranked golfer in the world has made the cut here each of the last 4 years and placed 6th, 11th, 60th and 5th. He is coming off a 43rd last time out and then 3 top 25 finishes. He ranks 6th in par 4 scoring and 12th in par 5 scoring. He is a fairly safe play this week with his recent performance and course history.
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
SI WOO KIM (8,600 DK / 10,100 FD) – I’m trying to target some guys in this range that might not be discussed elsewhere. I feel like Lowry, Todd, Conners, etc. are going to be talked about on several podcast, articles, etc. Kim doesn’t blow you away with stats but he has a 5th place here last year, a missed cut and a win. His last 5 tournaments he has finished 13th, 41st, 46th, 18th and 64th. He has 7 straight rounds of golf at par or lower. He shot a nice -1, -2, -2 and -2 last week. This course will be much easier this week and he is familiar with it.
RYAN MOORE (8,100 DK / 9,600 FD) – This guy is up and down and I never can get him correct. The last 4 rounds of golf we seen from him on the PGA tour were excellent. Those were at the 3M Open and he started it off with a -6 and followed it up with a -1, -4 and -3. Now there is risk with him as we saw him at the Travelers open a -3 and then shoot even day 2 and miss the cut. He also opened a +2 at the RBC and then shot a -2 but wasn’t enough to make the cut. Even at the Schwab he opened a -4 but then shot +4 and missed the cut. He has good history here finishing 6th, 24th, 53rd and 10th the last 4 years. Weak competition, solid course history and coming off 4 solid rounds. GPP mix but definitely not in my cash lineup.
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
HAROLD VARNER – 2nd in T2G, 5th in APP and 11th in total proximity. The main proximity range here is 150-175 yards and he ranks 7th in that specific category. He has 3 straight made cuts here finishing 60th 53rd and 10th over the last 3 years. If you take out the two round tournaments on 7/9 and 7/16 he has 4 with 71-87 DK points giving him solid return on his price tag. Someone to consider for GPPs with only with 64% of his rounds under par since the return.
SAM BURNS – He is 3rd in DK points, 2nd in par 5 scoring and has some monster rounds under his belt. He has no course history here but prior to the missed cut in his last event he had finished 32nd, 17th, 30th and 24th. The good thing about Burns is he is only 7200 on DK and has a ceiling of 91 DK points which is tremendous value. He has put up 77, 86, 81 and 91 DK points in those 3 high finishes. If you go into our “Round Tracker” cheatsheet and sort by the lowest average round Sam Burns is #4 on the entire field. He is sitting at -2.33 strokes per round and 83% of his round are lower than par since the return (15 of 18). He also has a solid ceiling hitting rounds of -5 and -6.
HENRIK NORLANDER – I’m still looking at the “Round Tracker” sheet and Norlander comes in at #10 with an average of -2.00 strokes per round and 82% of his rounds below par (18 of 22). Another golfer with a great ceiling and someone to keep in mind for showdown slates as he his -6 in at least one round in each of his last 2 tournaments. Hasn’t played here for the last 3 years and the year he did he missed the cut.
TOM LEWIS – Tom comes in at #13 on that list with an average of -1.94 strokes per round and 69% of his rounds below par since the return. He has the highest ceiling of them all with a -9 shot in round 3 of the WGC event. Last week Tom Lewis shot a solid -3 to open up the PGA Championship and then got in trouble and shot +6 knocking himself out of the cut line. 7600 is a very fair price for him this week in this weak field. He has no course history here.
SEPP STRAKA – Wow I was shocked to see him down in this pricing category. He finished 39th here last year and is coming off finishes of 66th, 18th, 61st, 14th and 8th. He is 17th in DK points for his last 36 rounds and 4th in par 5 scoring. Straka has put up some solid scores. Last week was only 60.5 DK points but prior to that he has 96.5, MC, 90, 103, MC and 80.5. That is monster value for his 7100 salary! He has a solid ceiling shooting a -8 in round 4 of the 3M Open. His round tracker numbers aren’t as eye popping because last week he shot a par and 3 rounds of +1 and then he played 4 rounds at the Memorial so those are 8 rounds grading as “bad” but they really aren’t terrible. He has 15 of 28 rounds below par for 54% but take off those 8 rounds that were (4 at Memorial and 4 last week just 1 over par) and he is 15 of 20 for 75%.
GOLFERS UNDER 7,000: “DARTS – JUST NEED THEM TO MAKE THE CUT!”
This range has several golfers that are solid and several that are junk. If you look at World Golf Rankings you have Adam Long (73rd), Jason KoKrak (67th), Graeme McDdowell (55th), Matt Jones (88th) and Nate Lashley (93rd) all in the top 100.
You are going to find golfers that play this course really well. I was in attendance last time Sneds won it. I actually had him sitting at my table for the pre-night dinner that was hosted by Wyndham. My father works for Wyndham and that is how I was able to attend my first PGA event several years ago.
QUICK NOTES FOR SUB 7,000 PRICED GOLFERS THIS WEEK:
Brice Garnett has finished 6th, 20th and 20th in his last 3 events here.
Kyle Stanley has finished 13th, MC, 14th and 51st.
Bill Haas has 5 straight made cuts here over the last 5 years.
Patton Kizzire has finished 13th, 24th and 53rd the last 3 time she played here.
Tim Wilkinson has a 14th and 22nd with a MC the last 3 years he played.
Brandon Hagy has only played the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage but with an average of -2.38 strokes gained per round and 88% of those below par. (7 of 8 and the 1 he missed he was only +1).
Chris Baker has also only played the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage and has an average of -2.38 strokes per round and 75% below par.
Ryan Armour hasn’t played since missing the cut at the Workday but still has an average of -2.36 per round with 64% of his rounds below par. Also a solid ceiling shooting a -8 and -5 in back to back rounds at the RM.
Wesley Bryan last played at the RM and shot -3, -3, -7 and par. He has an average of -2.33 per round and 83% of his rounds under par. He has also put up 89, 85 and 67 DK points across his last 3 since the return and priced at only 6600 on DK.
Thanks for reading,
Haze