PGA Ownership plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Make sure to check out our earlier article on our course breakdown and DFS plays. Today we are going to take a look at some ownership numbers. I try to post these on Wednesday morning when they are released as they are more accurate than something that comes out on a Monday.
HIGH END GUYS:
WEBB SIMPSON – Projected at 30-35% he is expected to be the highest owned golfer on the entire slate and with good reason finishing 2nd, 2nd and 3rd here the last 3 years. I will be overweight on him than the field. Just seems like a solid play with so much value at the bottom.
BROOKS KOEPKA / TOMMY FLEETWOOD / PAUL CASEY – They are projected in the 10-13% range. I’m shocked to see Paul Casey that low I figured he would be much higher since he is a solid ball striker and coming off a good performance last week at the PGA Championship. Paul Casey would be my top play of those guys based on that ownership. Fleetwood has just been awful lately for his price tag vs. value. Paul Casey is +1.73 strokes in ball striking which is the highest in the field this week. Fleetwood is only +0.41 and Koepka is +0.98.
MID-UPPER TIER PLAYERS:
HARRIS ENGLISH / BILLY HORSCHEL – Both projected to be around 22-25% owned this week and the highest of the 8,500-9,900 range on DK. Both are solid plays if you can afford them and both have done well on this course. I prefer Harris English over Horschel due to the higher ceiling. English has finished in the Top 20 each of his last 4 tournaments.
JORDAN SPIETH / SHANE LOWRY – They are projected to be the lowest owned in this pricing tier we are looking at around the 6-9% range. I don’t love either one but slightly prefer Lowry over Spieth for the ownership %. I don’t have many shares of either.
MID-LOW TIER PLAYERS:
RUSSELL HENLEY / RYAN MOORE – In the 7500-8500 range on DK these two are projected to be the highest owned in the 16-19% range. Ryan Moore has finished 6th, 24th, 53rd and 10th here the last 4 years and coming off (2) top 15 finishes. Henley finished 31st here last year, MC the year prior and then a 46th. I prefer Ryan Moore over Henley if you are taking someone here but I feel that it is worth noting that Henley is #1 in SG: T2G and #1 in SG: APP over his last 36 rounds out of this entire field.
CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT / MATTHIAS SCHWAB – Are projected to be the two lowest in in this tier coming in at sub 3%. Bez is at least the 47th ranked golfer in the world and ranks 17th in approach. He has a MC and (2) top 22 finishes in his last 3.
NOTES ON THE LOW-LOW VALUE TIER:
PATTON KIZZIRE – Dirt cheap and great for a GPP differentiation option. He is coming off a T46 finish and the last 3 times he has played here he finished 13th, 24th and 53rd. He is almost min priced at DK (6200) and projected 1-2% ownership.
CHRIS BAKER – He was in our first article for showing up on the round tracker as having one of the lowest average scores per round. He is projected at 1-2% ownership also. He has not played this course but coming off 5 straight cuts and he is also (6200) on DK.
WESLEY BRYAN – Only 6600 on DK was one of the first plays that jumped out at me. He is projected in the 6-8% ownership range this week and I don’t mind it. He is coming off 40th, 21st and 20th place finishes. He has missed the cut here twice but he is playing great golf right now. He is +1.11 strokes per round in ball striking and +1.49 on approach and +0.81 in T2G. Those should correlate strongly to this course.
BRANDON HAGY – He is another boom or bust GPP play that we can attack for only 6700 on DK. Projected at sub 1% ownership he jumped out at us on the round tracker as having a nice average low round score. Over his last 36 rounds he is 7th in DK points, 6th in BOB%, 9th in P3 scoring and 24th in P5 scoring. He is coming off a T12 finish his last time out.
TALOR GOOCH – He fits the mold for the course but again he is a boom or bust GPP play at 6900 on DK. He is projected at 1-2% ownership this week. He is 21st in DK points, 20th in approach, 17th in proximity 150-175 yards and in his P3 / P4 / P5 scoring he ranks 20th, 24th and 55th. He has missed the cut here the last two years but recently has a couple top 20 finishes.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week!